Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Louisville, KY

092 
WGUS73 KLMK 072255
FFSLMK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
555 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

KYC031-141-213-227-072305-
/O.EXP.KLMK.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-160707T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-LOGAN KY-BUTLER KY-
555 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WARREN...SIMPSON...LOGAN AND
SOUTHWESTERN BUTLER COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 600 PM CDT...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLASH FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED
TO POSE A THREAT. HIGH WATER STILL REMAINS IN MANY LOCATIONS AND AN
AREAL FLOOD WARNING REPLACES THIS FLASH FLOOD WARNING.

LAT...LON 3665 8659 3664 8706 3706 8705 3707 8698
      3707 8694 3709 8690 3710 8690 3711 8689
      3713 8690 3713 8692 3716 8693 3715 8685
      3696 8615 3689 8625 3689 8627 3688 8626
      3678 8641 3665 8642 3665 8651 3663 8656

$$

SCHOETTMER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
245 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Jul 7 2016

Lots of light to moderate rain across the region this hour, but
heavier rains continue near our border with TN. Have issued several
flash flood warnings. Rain rates from the KY mesonet as well as MRMS
have varied from 4-6 inches/hour in the more intense cells.

The wave that is generating this heavy rain is well initialized in
the models. As the morning progresses, this wave should head into
eastern KY, leaving a boundary that carves a path around our
southern forecast area, if not just south of it. The NAM tries to
keep our south and east rainy through the morning hours, whereas the
Hi-res WRF's our local WRF and the HRRR portray the more likely
solution of a drying out period in the wake of the wave and also as
isentropic lift weakens across the region.

By this afternoon, expect a boundary to remain somewhere across our
south, which when combined with heating, should allow additional
storms to develop. Latest WRF-NMM and GFS supports this thinking,
but given other models keep rain chances elsewhere, will have at
least a slight chance areawide in the mid afternoon to early evening
hours. As was the case yesterday, with warm highs and plenty of
moisture, CAPEs will be high, but some drier air aloft also will
make DCAPEs fairly high, so damaging wind is a threat in addition to
heavy rains. Freezing levels look too high for any hail threat today.

Tonight's storm chances will depend on upstream development. Latest
GFS and Euro would have another MCS develop over the Upper Midwest
and track east southeast. This track would have it just clip our
northern forecast area. Given the boundary left in the wake of
convection this morning, would not be surprised if these storms
track a little farther south. The remains of this system, along with
a trough heading over the Upper Midwest should serve as a focus for
new storms Friday afternoon. Wind fields are a bit stronger aloft,
but unidirectional, so storms could see some organization as they
develop over our region and travel eastward. Precipitable waters
remain high so once again flash flooding is possible.

The only other concern in the forecast is for heat indices Friday
afternoon. Given a potential for a later start to storms that day,
we should see highs rise into the lower 90s for most locations.
Combined with the present humidity, that should make for heat
indices close to advisory range, especially along and west of a
Louisville to Campbellsville line.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Thu Jul 7 2016

GFS/Euro still force any convection to just along or south of the
KY/TN border for the weekend, so most of the area should be dry.
That moisture may try and sneak back in here for the next work week,
resulting in daily chances of scattered storms. Temperatures will be
near normal.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Thu Jul 7 2016

Storms will move through from west to east early this
evening...should be out of the area around 01Z. These storms may
produce strong wind gusts, though locally heavy downpours on
saturated ground may be the main concern. Trees may be more easily
toppled by sub-severe winds given the soaked ground.

Moving into the overnight hours, the HRRR and SPC HRRR, which have
been doing the best among the models today, have shown inter- and
intra-run consistency advertising another round of storms overnight
as a 5H wave over Kansas today moves into the Ohio Valley tonight.
Those models also did an exemplary job with the overnight convection
last night. If these forecast storms do materialize, then there will
be additional flash flooding concerns tonight even though the
overnight storms are not expected to be particularly strong. After
chatting with neighboring offices, have decided to extend the Flash
Flood Watch through the night.

Any overnight storms should move off to the east by the time the sun
comes up on Friday. We should have several dry hours for much of the
day on Friday until a cold front approaches toward evening.

The atmosphere is expected to become extremely unstable Friday
afternoon with CAPE 3k-4k J/kg and LI to -9C. Shear and surface
convergence won't be particularly strong, and there will be some mid-
level capping to overcome, but the invading front should help to
spark storms. Precipitable water values will pool around two inches
ahead of the boundary, so locally torrential downpours will be
possible late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Strong DCAPE,
dry air aloft, and unidirectional shear suggest gusty winds will be
the main severe threat. The most likely area for strong storms
and locally heavy downpours looks to be southern Kentucky.

Heat index readings will peak around 100F Friday afternoon.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KYZ026-027-061>066-070>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........13
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........BJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
155 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

KYZ026-027-061>065-070>078-081-082-081800-
OHIO-GRAYSON-BUTLER-EDMONSON-HART-GREEN-TAYLOR-LOGAN-WARREN-SIMPSON-
ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE-METCALFE-ADAIR-RUSSELL-CUMBERLAND-CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...LEITCHFIELD...MORGANTOWN...
BROWNSVILLE...HORSE CAVE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...
RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...PROVIDENCE...SCOTTSVILLE...
GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...
BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
155 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 /1255 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 347 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS. SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. ALSO...WITH THE
SOAKED GROUND, TREES MAY BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING UPROOTED BY
WINDS BELOW NORMAL SEVERE CRITERIA.

OUTSIDE OF ANY COOLING THUNDERSTORMS...AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH A WARM...MOIST ATMOSPHERE. ANY STORM
WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 100 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE.

SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY STRONGER WIND GUSTS...DAMAGE...AS WELL
AS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

INZ078-079-091-092-KYZ029>043-045>049-054>057-067-081800-
SCOTT-JEFFERSON-FLOYD-CLARK-BULLITT-OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-HENRY-SHELBY-
FRANKLIN-HARRISON-SPENCER-ANDERSON-WOODFORD-FAYETTE-BOURBON-NICHOLAS-
NELSON-WASHINGTON-MERCER-JESSAMINE-MARION-BOYLE-GARRARD-MADISON-
LINCOLN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...
MILTON...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...
RICHMOND...STANFORD
155 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTSIDE OF ANY COOLING THUNDERSTORMS...AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH A WARM...MOIST ATMOSPHERE. ANY
STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 100 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE.

SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY STRONGER WIND GUSTS...DAMAGE...AS WELL
AS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

INZ076-077-083-084-089-090-KYZ023>025-028-053-081800-
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON-HANCOCK-
BRECKINRIDGE-MEADE-HARDIN-LARUE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...JASPER...ENGLISH...
TELL CITY...CORYDON...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...
BRANDENBURG...ELIZABETHTOWN...HODGENVILLE
155 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 /1255 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 347 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS. SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. ALSO...WITH THE
SOAKED GROUND, TREES MAY BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING UPROOTED BY
WINDS BELOW NORMAL SEVERE CRITERIA.

OUTSIDE OF ANY COOLING THUNDERSTORMS...AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH A WARM...MOIST ATMOSPHERE. ANY
STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 100 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE.

SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY STRONGER WIND GUSTS...DAMAGE...AS WELL
AS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

KYZ066-081800-
CASEY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LIBERTY
155 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASEY COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS. SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTSIDE OF ANY COOLING THUNDERSTORMS...AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH A WARM...MOIST ATMOSPHERE. ANY STORM
WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 100 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE.

SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY STRONGER WIND GUSTS...DAMAGE...AS WELL
AS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
201 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

INZ089-KYZ023-024-026-071945-
PERRY-OHIO-HANCOCK-BRECKINRIDGE-
201 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

...STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD
PERRY...NORTHEASTERN OHIO...WESTERN BRECKINRIDGE AND HANCOCK
COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR...

AT 156 PM CDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS NEAR CHANDLER...
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.  THESE STORMS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED WINDS UP
TO 70 MPH IN AND NEAR EVANSVILLE.

IF THESE STORMS CONTINUE AT THEIR PRESENT INTENSITY...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED AROUND 230 PM CDT.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TELL CITY...HAWESVILLE...MOUNT PLEASANT...LEWISPORT...CANNELTON...
CLOVERPORT...LEOPOLD...TROY...ARRINGTON CORNER AND LILLY DALE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

LAT...LON 3793 8697 3794 8692 3802 8680 3800 8677
      3804 8679 3810 8677 3812 8681 3821 8679
      3820 8648 3763 8651 3766 8685 3767 8682
      3771 8687 3774 8682 3779 8682 3784 8685
      3784 8691 3788 8689 3790 8692 3789 8699
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 262DEG 39KT 3799 8737

JBS