Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
323 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Jul 7 2016

Lots of light to moderate rain across the region this hour, but
heavier rains continue near our border with TN. Have issued several
flash flood warnings. Rain rates from the KY mesonet as well as MRMS
have varied from 4-6 inches/hour in the more intense cells.

The wave that is generating this heavy rain is well initialized in
the models. As the morning progresses, this wave should head into
eastern KY, leaving a boundary that carves a path around our
southern forecast area, if not just south of it. The NAM tries to
keep our south and east rainy through the morning hours, whereas the
Hi-res WRF's our local WRF and the HRRR portray the more likely
solution of a drying out period in the wake of the wave and also as
isentropic lift weakens across the region.

By this afternoon, expect a boundary to remain somewhere across our
south, which when combined with heating, should allow additional
storms to develop. Latest WRF-NMM and GFS supports this thinking,
but given other models keep rain chances elsewhere, will have at
least a slight chance areawide in the mid afternoon to early evening
hours. As was the case yesterday, with warm highs and plenty of
moisture, CAPEs will be high, but some drier air aloft also will
make DCAPEs fairly high, so damaging wind is a threat in addition to
heavy rains. Freezing levels look too high for any hail threat today.

Tonight's storm chances will depend on upstream development. Latest
GFS and Euro would have another MCS develop over the Upper Midwest
and track east southeast. This track would have it just clip our
northern forecast area. Given the boundary left in the wake of
convection this morning, would not be surprised if these storms
track a little farther south. The remains of this system, along with
a trough heading over the Upper Midwest should serve as a focus for
new storms Friday afternoon. Wind fields are a bit stronger aloft,
but unidirectional, so storms could see some organization as they
develop over our region and travel eastward. Precipitable waters
remain high so once again flash flooding is possible.

The only other concern in the forecast is for heat indices Friday
afternoon. Given a potential for a later start to storms that day,
we should see highs rise into the lower 90s for most locations.
Combined with the present humidity, that should make for heat
indices close to advisory range, especially along and west of a
Louisville to Campbellsville line.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Thu Jul 7 2016

Should see storms linger Friday evening as a cool front pushes
southward. GFS/Euro still force any convection to just along or
south of the KY/TN border for the weekend, so the rest of the area
should be dry. That moisture may try and sneak in here for the next
work week, but looks like the best chance for development may wait
till Wednesday as the GFS/Euro show a vortmax moving across the
Midwest by then.

Temperatures should start off a little below normal Sunday, but then
rise to near normal the rest of the period.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1252 AM EDT Thu Jul 7 2016

Rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue to move through BWG
through around 07-08Z. This rain is heavy enough to bring IFR
visibilities at times. After 08Z or so the rain should be moving
out, though some showers may still linger for a bit after that. Some
light fog will be possible in the wake of the precipitation this
morning. Conditions should improve to VFR after sunrise.

Some light rain looks to spread into SDF and LEX, but should be
mainly out of the area by sunrise. Guidance suggests some light fog
and possibly MVFR ceilings will develop at these sites this morning.
The low clouds could hang around LEX until late morning before
rising to VFR. There is less certainty of MVFR cigs at SDF, so will
keep it more optimistic for now, but will watch them closely.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM CDT early this morning for KYZ026-
     027-061>063-070>076-081.

IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........EER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
245 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SUNFISH                 37.30N 86.37W
07/07/2016  M2.39 INCH       EDMONSON           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2.39 INCHES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. .

&&

NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
250 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 W RUSSELLVILLE        36.84N 86.93W
07/07/2016  M3.69 INCH       LOGAN              KY   MESONET

            THE LOGAN COUNTY MESONET HAS HAD 3.69 INCHES
            OF RAIN IN THE PAST 3 HOURS. .

&&

NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
403 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0314 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W RUSSELLVILLE        36.84N 86.91W
07/07/2016                   LOGAN              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED ON EMERSON BYPASS. VEHICLE WAS
            SUBMERGED UP TO THE ROOF WITH WATER. A SMALL
            HOUSE IN A VALLEY THAT WAS RAISED UP 3 FEET
            WAS FLOODED. STILL PLENTY OF ROADS IN THE
            AREA SHUT DOWN.

&&

NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
412 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NNW RAPIDS            36.71N 86.49W
07/07/2016                   SIMPSON            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            KENTUCKY STATE POLICE REPORTED SEVERAL AREAS
            ON SCOTTSVILLE ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEM