Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1100 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.UPDATE...
Have increased pops across the southeast this morning as thunderstorm
activity developed across our southeast most zones a little earlier
than expected. Surface analysis showed a weak nearly stationary
boundary across the Highway 84 corridor left over from Thursday
evening's storms. This boundary is expected to drift a little farther
north this afternoon and remain a focus for convection. A moist
airmass remains over our CWA with the 12Z FRI JAN sounding still
showing a PWAT near 2 inches. Although temperatures were running
cooler than yesterday morning, isolated to scattered storms are
expected over most of the CWA again this afternoon and evening.
Greatest pops today will be carried in the southeast then focused
more to the northwest this evening. Local wet micro burst checklist
indicated a little less potential today but a strong wind gust or two
will be possible. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...A mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings are being observed at sites
across the region this morning.  This will likely be the case
throughout much of today thanks to low clouds across much of the
area along and south of the Interstate 20 corridor, and the
expectation of scattered convection developing across the area
later this afternoon. Winds today will be from the light and
variable. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016/

DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday night...
Latest predawn satellite/RAP analysis had a flat subtropical ridge
extended from the Southern Plains through the Southwest
Conus...while some troughiness was noted over the Mississippi
Valley.  A storm complex were noted across the Southern Plains.
This was associated with a series of short waves moving around the
subtropical ridge. Over our area a weak mid level trough axis was
noted near southeast Mississippi.

For today into tonight the hi-res models are showing less coverage
then on Thursday. Expect instability with mid layer lapse rates of
6-7C and upper westerly flow to continue across the region. Hi-res
models hints that the MCS over the Southern Plains may try make a
push toward the CWA before it weakens. Precipitable water will be
around 1.8 to 2.0 inches for some brief downpours. There could be
a few diurnal strong storms today, but not confident enough to pin
point an approximate location for the HWO for now. Will let the day
shift take a second look and see if there is some strong activity
developing toward the region from the west. Otherwise expect a weak
frontal boundary to push into the delta region.

For Saturday into Saturday night the weak frontal boundary will push
back to the Mid Mississippi Valley region. Weak short waves will
continue to cross the region from the northwest which will continue
our convective chances. Deep layer shear will remain well north of
the region, but we will have some upper divergence during the day.
Precipitable water will range from 1.6 to 1.9 inches.

As far as temps are concern we will remain below any significant
heat indices with our rain chances. Highs will be mainly in the
lower 90s. Lows will be from the lower to middle 70s. As far as
diurnal pops are concern the best daytime pops will be in the
southeast for today as well as along and southeast of Natchez Trace
Parkway for Saturday./17/

LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Hot temps and limited
convection will be the rule during this period. A building mid/upper
level ridge with its axis oriented west-to-east across the southern
CONUS will be in place at the beginning of the period. As the ridge
builds, convection will be increasingly suppressed as warmer/drier
air becomes dominant aloft. Only the eastern/southeastern periphery
will have any convective potential, but coverage will be isolated to
widely scattered at best.

Model consensus is that max temps will rise a couple of degrees
daily as the ridge builds. Mid 90s at the beginning of the week will
rise into the upper 90s by weeks end. With dewpoints holding firm in
the low to mid 70s, high heat indices will likely become a problem
during the week./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       93  74  93  74 /  45  27  41  28
Meridian      91  73  94  73 /  56  29  39  28
Vicksburg     93  74  93  74 /  31  28  41  28
Hattiesburg   91  74  92  74 /  70  33  49  33
Natchez       93  74  91  74 /  31  26  48  31
Greenville    93  75  93  75 /  40  34  38  15
Greenwood     93  73  93  74 /  41  30  37  18

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

22/19/17/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
234 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
161100-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
234 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...EAST
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

19

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1130 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OAK GROVE               32.86N 91.39W
07/14/2016                   WEST CARROLL       LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWNED ALL THROUGHOUT THE PARISH,
            INLCUDING ON ROADWAYS HWY 589, HWY 585, BIENZ RD, AND
            PULL TIGHT RD. SEVERAL SHEDS TOPPLED/DAMAGED THROUGHOUT
            PARISH AS WELL.

&&

AW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1251 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW CLINTON           32.32N 90.34W
07/14/2016                   HINDS              MS   PUBLIC

            BIG TREE DOWN NEAR LONGWOOD DR. FENCE AND SEVERAL LARGE
            LIMBS BLOWN DOWN ON TURNBERRY COVE IN THE SAME
            NEIGHBORHOOD.

&&

AW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
200 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

MSZ062-063-151945-
LINCOLN MS-LAWRENCE MS-
200 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN LAWRENCE AND
SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 200 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR EAST LINCOLN...OR 11 MILES EAST OF BROOKHAVEN...MOVING SOUTH AT
10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  EAST LINCOLN AROUND 220 PM CDT.
  TOPEKA...JAYESS AND RUTH AROUND 245 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3135 9011 3135 9039 3163 9036 3163 9017
      3134 9010 3134 9011
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 346DEG 9KT 3154 9026

19

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
257 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

MSZ026-152045-
GRENADA MS-
257 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN GRENADA COUNTY
UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 257 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR COFFEEVILLE...OR 14 MILES NORTH OF GRENADA...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT
15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN
GRENADA COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3387 8977 3387 8963 3380 8964 3384 8993
      3388 8993 3390 8991 3390 8977
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 025DEG 14KT 3397 8974

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
407 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

LAZ024-152145-
CATAHOULA LA-
407 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CATAHOULA PARISH
UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 406 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER ROSEFIELD...OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF COLUMBIA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ROSEFIELD AROUND 410 PM CDT.
  SHERWOOD...ENTERPRISE AND AIMWELL AROUND 425 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE HARRISONBURG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3193 9201 3193 9191 3197 9190 3195 9185
      3194 9185 3192 9182 3192 9180 3189 9180
      3189 9178 3187 9178 3188 9176 3188 9173
      3190 9172 3189 9170 3155 9199 3159 9201
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 308DEG 16KT 3191 9201

CME