Severe Thunderstorm Warning 335, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
518 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

.UPDATE...MCS currently over Central AR is showing no signs of
losing steam and is currently on track to reach the NW corner of the
CWA between 7 and 8 pm. Forecast for tonight has ben overhauled to
significantly increase POPs across the Delta. HWO/graphics have been
revised to add a limited threat generally north of I-20 and an
elevated threat across much of the Delta. Damaging winds will be the
main concern, but there have been a few deeper cores capable
of producing severe hail. Updated products have already been shipped.
/DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /Issued at 400 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016/
SHORT TERM... The storms across our northern counties dissipated
as the shortwave helping to develop the activity shifted northeast
of Mississippi. Local radars this afternoon had scattered storms
mainly southeast of a Natchez to Meridian line. This activity will
continue into the early evening hours before dissipating. Microburst
potential with these storms were lower so have pulled mention of
severe storms from our HWO. Additional rain chances are possible
tonight from the northwest. Afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP
analysis had a second shortwave topping the large 594dam ridge over
the southern plains.
This shortwave was helping develop a complex of storms moving east
into western Arkansas. As the mid level ridge continues to weaken
tonight the complex of storms may move more to the southeast and
toward our northwest zones. A few strong storms can not be ruled out
especially over our northwest most zones but the complex is expected
to weaken as it enters our CWA later this evening. Wl still have a
moist airmass over our CWA Friday along with lower heights and a
potential surface boundary left over from the storms tonight. Daytime
heating should lead to scattered to numerous coverage of storms by
afternoon. Cooler afternoon temperatures are expected areawide. The
warmest temperatures will be in our west where the lowest pops will
be carried. A storm or two with strong gusty winds will be possible
Friday as well. /22/

LONG TERM...
Saturday through Wednesday...At the beginning of the period a large
ridge, centered over northern old Mexico, will extend over the
southern CONUS and out into the Atlantic. A weakness in the ridge
will exist over the lower MS valley/TN valley where a weak cold front
will coincidentally be located. With convergence along the frontal
boundary, 6-7 c/km lapse rates, and PWs near 2 inches, believe a good
scattering of convection will result in the heat of the day.

From Sunday through the end of the period, the weak front will have
moved back north of the area as the mid/upper level ridging
continues. The increased warming aloft will have the affect of
hindering convective possibilities for the majority of the area,
with southeast sections having the best, albeit slight, chances if
any system can pass on the periphery of the ridge.

Meanwhile, temperatures will become quite hot, especially over the
ArkLaMiss Delta region where any afternoon convection will be hard
to come by. It is in these areas that maximums will steadily rise
each afternoon through the mid 90s into the upper 90s by
Tuesday/Wednesday with heat indices around 105. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...
Isolated to scattered storms are developing across portions of the
area this afternoon thanks to daytime heating and an outflow boundary
dropping east southeast through the northeast corner of the region. A
few storms could be intense, producing gusty winds and frequent
lighting. Some small hail will be possible with the a storm or two as
well. If convection is observed on station, flight categories could
be briefly reduced to IFR status due to degraded visibilities and
ceiling heights. Convection should begin to wane in coverage and
intensity after sunset this evening.  /19/

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

DL/22/26/19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
558 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025-026-034-035-152300-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-
558 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...THROUGH MIDNIGHT

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE ARKLAMISS DELTA
AREA THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE
WILL BE POSSIBLE THESE STORMS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ027>033-036>047-152300-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-HOLMES-ATTALA-
WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-
KEMPER-WARREN-
558 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A LINE OF STORMS MOVING
INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO QUARTER
SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE THESE STORMS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

LAZ023>026-MSZ048>066-072>074-152300-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
558 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

DL

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
827 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BONITA                  32.92N 91.67W
07/14/2016                   MOREHOUSE          LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWNED ALL THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
            PARISH.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
833 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND GST     MACON                   33.11N 88.56W
07/14/2016  E50 MPH          NOXUBEE            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TREE WAS DOWN ALONG WITH SOME POWER OUTAGES.

&&

27

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
846 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OAK GROVE               32.86N 91.39W
07/14/2016                   WEST CARROLL       LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWNED ALL THROUGHOUT THE PARISH.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
852 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLEVELAND               33.74N 90.73W
07/14/2016                   BOLIVAR            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES WERE DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY.

&&

27

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
853 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 WSW HOLLANDALE        33.15N 90.97W
07/14/2016                   WASHINGTON         MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
            COUNTY...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 438.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
859 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSE RAYVILLE          32.41N 91.73W
07/14/2016                   RICHLAND           LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWNED THROUGHOUT THE PARISH.

&&

DCOX