Severe Thunderstorm Warning 405, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
323 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

...SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday:
Tornado Watch 502 has been posted for a large chunk of the CWA
through 03Z. So far, things are playing out largely as anticipated,
with one notable exception. A large area of stratiform rain set up
across the Delta this morning significantly inhibiting
destabilization in that area and areas to the north. As a result,
those areas were largely spared, and we have downgraded them to a
limited threat in our graphics/HWO.

Otherwise, a QLCS has developed and now extends from the I-55
corridor southwestward to along the MS River. Strong winds are
occurring along this line and some wind damage has already been
reported across the Delta. This portion of the line will continue
eastward and be through the Golden Triangle by around 6pm. Though we
cannot rule out a mesovortex developing along this portion of the
line in the northern portion of the CWA, the primary threat in that
portion of the watch will be damaging straight line wind gusts.
Mainly south of I-20, scattered supercells have also developed. This
convection has shown more of a propensity to rotate, and will begin
moving into our portions of central Louisiana and south Mississippi
through the late afternoon and early evening hours. Though some
severe threat will persist into the Pine Belt later this evening,
better forcing and wind shear will be pulling away from the area, so
the threat will be somewhat lower in that area as well.

Wind gusts have been impressive through the day today, with gusts of
40-50 mph across the entire area. Strong gradient wind gusts will
continue ahead of the storms through shortly after sunset given the
strong pressure falls across the area.

We'll see a break in the action overnight with perhaps a few showers
lingering along the I-59 corridor. Late tonight into early tomorrow
morning, high-res models have been offering strong indications of
areas of fog developing. This would be more of an advection fog event
as the front remains stalled across the area and warm and moist
advection continues into a rain-cooled airmass. This fog could become
locally dense, but with much of our attention on this afternoon's
storms, I deferred adding this to the HWO or considering an advisory
until we have a better chance to look at things later this evening.

Rain looks to hold off for the first half of the day Tuesday, though
some warm advection showers or storms may begin to develop across the
southern half of the area by the afternoon as the next shortwave
rounds the upper trough over the center of the country. Though it
won't be as windy as it was today, breezy conditions are expected
again tomorrow as the pressure gradient tightens through the day and
a 20 to 30 kt low level jet remains in place over the area. /DL/

Tuesday night through Sunday:
Another round of severe storms is currently expected Tuesday night
into early Wednesday morning. Persistent strong low level flow will
further moisten and destabilize the atmosphere over the region
heading into Tuesday night. This increase in instability, in addition
to sufficient wind shear, a stalled boundary over the eastern half of
the forecast area, and yet another strong cold front rapidly swinging
into and through the area from the west overnight, will result in
severe storms developing across the region, primarily from 7 PM
Tuesday through 8 AM Wednesday.

Confidence is currently greatest that locations along and east of a
Starkville, to Jackson metro, to Meadville line will experience the
best potential for storms producing damaging wind gusts of 60 mph or
greater, quarter-size hail, and tornadoes.  Thus, I'll maintain the
current "Elevated" area of severe storms over this area.  A
"Limited" threat for severe storms capable of producing damaging
wind gusts and quarter-size hail will exist just west of this line,
excluding a large portion of the Delta region where severe storms
are not expected.  This being said, given said increased levels of
both instability, wind shear, and forcing with this system,
confidence is slowly increasing that a strong tornado can't be ruled
out with this setup.  While I'll hold off this package, parameters
for such tornado potential will continue to be monitored. If
confidence increases further, an upgrade from "Elevated" to
"Significant" may be needed in the HWO for a portion of the eastern
half of the CWA during this time.

Behind the passage of Wednesday morning's front, rain chances and
clouds will exit east into Alabama as high pressure builds into the
region from the west.  This will result in quiet and cool conditions
Thursday into Friday.  Rain chances look to increase through the day
Saturday and into Sunday as another system is currently progged to
shift east northeast off the Texas coast and towards the central
gulf coast. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Conditions continue to deteriorate across the region ahead of an
approaching storm system. Ceilings range from VFR across the east to
MVFR in the NW portion of the area, and they will continue to fall
into this afternoon as a line of storms moves into the area.
Southerly winds ahead of the storms are quite strong, with several
gusts in the 35 to 40 kt range already observed. These gusts will
continue through the remainder of the afternoon until a broken line
of storms arrives, moving west to east across the area. These storms
could be severe with 50 kt gusts and tornadoes possible. The storms
will move east of the area this evening, with no precipitation
expected overnight. However, fog will likely develop closer to
daybreak Tuesday across South MS, with IFR or LIFR conditions
possible around HBG and possibly MEI. Fog should dissipate by mid-
morning. Later in the day, gusty southerly winds will return, with
gusts to around 20 kt possible. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       55  79  55  64 / 100  26  98  30
Meridian      58  81  58  65 / 100  30 100  76
Vicksburg     53  77  50  63 /  53  25  84  13
Hattiesburg   63  80  63  68 /  90  36 100  80
Natchez       56  75  54  64 /  63  35  89  17
Greenville    50  75  48  60 /  21  15  63  10
Greenwood     52  78  49  61 /  56  17  82  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MSZ018-019-025>045-
     047>050-053>055-059>062.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for MSZ046-051-052-
     056>058-063>066-072>074.

LA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

DL/19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
224 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-MSZ018-292030-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-BOLIVAR-
224 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...MOREHOUSE PARISH LOUISIANA AND BOLIVAR COUNTY
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

MSZ019-025>039-058-062>066-072>074-292030-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-CLARKE-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
224 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI AND THE PINE BELT IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

TORNADOES
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS, BUT A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE1.GIF)

AHEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE3.GIF)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY FROM 7 PM TUESDAY THROUGH 8 AM
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...QUARTER SIZED HAIL...AND TORNADOES.  LOCATIONS WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEEING SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST
OF A STARKVILLE...TO JACKSON...TO MEADVILLE LINE.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE4.GIF)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

LAZ008-009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040>057-059>061-292030-
WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-
CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-
LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
224 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

TORNADOES
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE1.GIF)

AHEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE3.GIF)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY FROM 7 PM TUESDAY THROUGH 8 AM
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...QUARTER SIZED HAIL...AND TORNADOES.  LOCATIONS WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEEING SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST
OF A STARKVILLE...TO JACKSON...TO MEADVILLE LINE.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE4.GIF)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

DL/19

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*TORNADOES*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN STRONG TORNADOES WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
SIGNIFICANT...STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN TORNADOES.
LIMITED...TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
EXTREME...SUSTAINED WINDS 50 MPH OR GREATER OR WIND GUSTS 65 MPH
 OR GREATER.
SIGNIFICANT...SUSTAINED WINDS 40-49 MPH OR WIND GUSTS 58-64 MPH.
ELEVATED...SUSTAINED WINDS 30-39 MPH OR WIND GUSTS 45-57 MPH.
LIMITED...SUSTAINED WINDS 20-29 MPH OR WIND GUSTS 30 TO 44 MPH.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/SAFE
LATEST WEATHER BRIEFING...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/WEATHER_BRIEFING

TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/SAFE

LATEST WEATHER BRIEFING...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/WEATHER_BRIEFING

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/ONLINE/
   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
431 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 S JACKSON             32.29N 90.21W
11/28/2016                   HINDS              MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DOWNED ALONG FLORENCE AVE, CAUSING STRUCTURAL DAMAGE

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
440 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W SHERWOOD            33.48N 89.20W
11/28/2016                   CHOCTAW            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY IN CHOCTAW
            COUNTY.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
441 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E POPLAR CREEK        33.36N 89.49W
11/28/2016                   MONTGOMERY         MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ALONG HWY 413.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
443 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNE CHESTER           33.40N 89.22W
11/28/2016                   CHOCTAW            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ALONG HWY 9.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
455 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KOSCIUSKO               33.06N 89.59W
11/28/2016                   ATTALA             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN AROUND THE CITY OF KOSCIUSKO WITH ADDITIONAL
            DOWNED TREES SCATTERED THROUGH ATTALA COUNTY.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
456 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW BOVINA             32.37N 90.76W
11/28/2016                   WARREN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN BETWEEN VICKSBURG AND BOVINA.

&&

ENTRE