Flash Flood Warning 108, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
352 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

...SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE OUR CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER AND SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST US TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE BEST COLD TOPS WAS NOTED OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE
NORTHWEST DELTA REGION. STRONG ASCENT FROM THE SUBSTROPICAL JET WAS
MOVING INTO THE REGION. A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MID TO UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE ACTIVE
SUBSTROPICAL JET WAS COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY. AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION. ON THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WAS NOTED ACROSS ARKANSAS
HEADING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DELTA. PWATS OF AROUND 1.8 OVER
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WAS SURGING TOWARD THE REGION.

LOOKING AT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SPC
HAS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR OUR WESTERN AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 55 UNTIL 7 PM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
GOOD LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6-7C. MODEL SNDGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT
CURVE IN THE HODOGRAPHS FOR SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL. SO THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AS
THE COLD FRONT COMES DOWN TONIGHT. CONVECTIVE MODE MODELS SHOWS SOME
SUPERCELLS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CONVECTIVE LINE COMING IN AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. A WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
SLOW IT DOWN SOME BEFORE IT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH. SO WITH THE
GRAPHICAST WE WILL KEEP THE ELEVATED RISK GENERALLY JUST EAST OF THE
I-55 CORRIDOR WITH THE LIMITED RISK TO THE EAST. THE PRIMARY RISK
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND
SOME TORNADOES.

LOOKING AT THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL SLOW
IT DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME TRAINING OF CELLS AROUND THE
BOUNDARY...BEFORE THE FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE. THE CONVECTIVE MODE
MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE AS FAR AS FAR AS THE PLACEMENT
OF THE HEAVY RAINS...ANYWHERE FROM NORTH OF I-20 TO SOUTH OF I-20.
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS THE SHORT TERM MODEL HAS SHOWN THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4 PLUS INCHES. WE ARE GENERALLY EXPECTING AROUND 2
TO 4 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE HEAVIER RAINS SHOULD BE
TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST BY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY THE FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION DURING THE MORNING
AS THE STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. THE CONVECTION WILL
BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING AND MAY LINGER
SOME IN THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEAST. FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT WE WILL GET A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAINS BEFORE A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM WITH A COASTAL SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. IT WILL PROVIDE SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH THE CLOUDS HANGING AROUND IT WILL HINDER NIGHT TIME
LOWS SOME. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE
50S SOUTH.

AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
COMING FROM THE PLAINS WILL PUSH ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE REGION WITH
A COASTAL SURFACE LOW. MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN KEEPING THE
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS SOUTH OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. DO
NOT SEE ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.
LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 50S./17/

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
ARKLAMISS FROM WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHICH WOULD SLOW
DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF WEATHER FEATURES...AND IT WOULD MAKE FOR
LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN TO BE CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS. SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL
NOT MENTION ANY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD FOR
THE HWO/GRAPHIC. THIS COULD BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS THERE WITH
THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. WE SHOULD GET A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE REX BLOCK HOLDS A SYSTEM
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL COME BACK IN THE
WEST AS THE REX BLOCK WEAKENS TO A BLOCKING RIDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT./17/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON IN NUMEROUS SHRA AND SCATTERED
TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH VSBYS BECOMING IMPACTED IN THE HEAVIER TSRA
THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

JACKSON       63  70  55  71 /  83  26  12  46
MERIDIAN      64  72  53  72 /  85  33   9  45
VICKSBURG     61  68  55  71 /  81  20  16  42
HATTIESBURG   66  78  59  74 /  87  52  14  56
NATCHEZ       64  70  55  71 /  69  25  19  53
GREENVILLE    53  65  51  68 /  92  16   9  26
GREENWOOD     56  67  50  70 /  93  19   8  25

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

17/26/DL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
222 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025-MSZ018-019-025-034>036-
040>043-047>049-053>055-059-121930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-TENSAS-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-
WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-JEFFERSON-
222 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

TORNADOES
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING. TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN
ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHICH COULD RESULT
IN FLASH FLOODING.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

MSZ026>033-037>039-044>046-050>052-056>058-121930-
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-
222 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

TORNADOES
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING. TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN
ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHICH COULD RESULT
IN FLASH FLOODING.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

LAZ024-026-MSZ060>064-121930-
CATAHOULA-CONCORDIA-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-
222 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

TORNADOES
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING. TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

MSZ065-066-072>074-121930-
COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
222 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

TORNADOES
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

26

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*TORNADOES*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN STRONG TORNADOES WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
SIGNIFICANT...STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN TORNADOES.
LIMITED...TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*FLOODING*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
SIGNIFICANT...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN FLOODING.
LIMITED...FLOODING POSSIBLE.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
728 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S STONEWALL           32.08N 88.80W
04/11/2016                   CLARKE             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ON HIGHWAY 513.

&&

17

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
732 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SE LEARNED            32.15N 90.49W
04/11/2016                   HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN AT KAY BROADWATER AND BOYD ROAD.

&&

17

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
742 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND GST     N MERIDIAN STATION      32.55N 88.62W
04/11/2016  M65 MPH          LAUDERDALE         MS   ASOS

&&

17

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
744 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRANDON                 32.28N 90.00W
04/11/2016                   RANKIN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PART OF THE ROOF WAS DOWN AT THE LAKELAND CLUBHOUSE WITH
            A TREE BLOWN DOWN.

&&

17

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
747 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MERIDIAN                32.38N 88.71W
04/11/2016                   LAUDERDALE         MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN MERIDIAN

&&

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
748 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BOLTON                  32.35N 90.46W
04/11/2016                   HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BOLTON BROWNSVILLE ROAD FLOODED DUE TO CREEK OUT OF ITS
            BANKS.

&&

17