Areal Flood Warning 41, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
435 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...HEADING INTO MIDWEEK,
WE WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM ONE WEATHER SYSTEM TO THE NEXT AS
THE SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS ACTIVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.

THIS EARLY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR THE NATCHEZ
TRACE, WITH SEVERAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS CONVECTION IS LONG PAST THE
ZENITH OF ITS INTENSITY, AND GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY AND RATHER
PEDESTRIAN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THREAT HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWED THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS AR THIS MORNING. AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY, THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH/EASTWARD CLEARING THE CWA BEFORE NOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND
LATEST MOS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING, IF NOT INTO THE AFTERNOON IN SOME AREAS.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALREADY
BEGIN FILLING BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM - A LOW THAT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER TX TONIGHT AND
TRACK ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
COULD SNEAK INTO THE SW PART OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT, I BELIEVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME OVER CENTRAL LA/SOUTH MS LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. CURRENTLY THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH, SO CHANCE THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. THE UPPER LOW DRIVING TOMORROW'S SURFACE
LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH INTO THURSDAY, BUT A BREAK IN
PRECIP IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS THE INITIAL LOW PASSES TO THE EAST.
/DL/

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...OVERALL...AN ACTIVE
SOUTHERN STREAM RESPONSIBLE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LOSE STEAM AS
WE GO THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITHIN THE REX BLOCK PATTERN WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ARKLAMISS FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT GREATER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY
RAIN THREATS WOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS.
FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF IMPACTS IN THE
HWO/GRAPHICS. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE REX
BLOCK IS STILL FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE GENERALLY FIXED ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS POSITION
WOULD ENSURE MOSTLY DRY AND CONTINUED MILD CONDITIONS FOR THE
ARKLAMISS. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CEILINGS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO
LOW STRATUS. SHRA/TSRA ARE CONTINUING TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE,
THOUGH SOME SCT SHRA MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE MORNING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME AT MOST SITES...IMPROVING TO VFR
BEFORE SUNSET. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  56  71  57 /  20  11  55  60
MERIDIAN      72  55  72  58 /  22   9  59  74
VICKSBURG     68  56  69  57 /  17  15  48  38
HATTIESBURG   77  59  72  61 /  48  14  76  62
NATCHEZ       71  57  69  57 /  22  18  64  51
GREENVILLE    66  52  67  55 /  12  11  33  36
GREENWOOD     68  52  68  55 /  12   8  39  49

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

DL/EC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
436 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
130945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
436 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

DL

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
500 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSW BELZONI           33.14N 90.52W
04/11/2016                   HUMPHREYS          MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            A FIRE TOWER WAS BLOWN OVER ALONG US HWY 49

0352 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BELZONI                 33.18N 90.49W
04/11/2016                   HUMPHREYS          MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            A BARN WAS DESTROYED

&&

DL