Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
808 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms later
this evening. Oppressive heat and humidity will continue for one
more day on Saturday. A cold front will drop south into the
Carolinas Sunday bringing slightly lower temperatures and
humidity before returning north Monday. Bermuda high pressure will
build westward and dominate the weather through the middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 800 PM Friday...Organized convection in association with
MCV crossing the Appalachians covered a good portion of northern
and western North Carolina. These storms were pressing to the ESE.
A small batch of thunderstorms had developed near FAY and Clinton
with a few showers further S across Robeson and Bladen counties.
This activity was moving to the ESE as well.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued through late evening
for areas just to our N. The coverage of thunderstorms will be
increasing across southeast North Carolina and portions of
northeast South Carolina during the eve, especially after 10-11
pm, as they approach from the WNW. The storms will be fast movers
and may still be well organized even at that late hour. Thus
strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may still be possible,
even up to the midnight hour or so. Overnight, instability will be
slowly waning at the surface and this should mitigate the risk
for damaging wind gusts at the surface, although the lightning
risk may persist well into the overnight.

We have increased POPs to likely and maintained enhanced wording
for strong to damaging thunderstorm wind gusts.

Dropped minimums to the lower to mid 70s with more in the way of
upper 70s at the beaches and far southern areas where the large
scale associated the effects of the large scale cold pool will be
least pronounced.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Although the short term is primarily a
temperature forecast it is a difficult one. Previously it was
thought that Saturday was to be the hottest of this heat wave. Two
things have called that into doubt. First off, today did not grow as
hot as forecast in most places. Second, MET guidance has dropped
from previous runs, the MET being the model with the better
verification as of late. In the end tomorrow may be quite similar to
today temperature-wise especially as there is little synoptic
change. Today's heat advisory fell short albeit narrowly and will
not raise one for tomorrow at this time. Convection will largely be
capped as with recent days minus the evening shortwaves so POPs top
out at 20 percent. On Sunday mid level flow goes from WNW to WSW
allowing for some moistening. The added cloud cover should temper
highs by just a few degrees. The capping should also be weakened
allowing for isolated convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Surface and mid level ridging will be the
dominant features during the period. Early next week a shortwave
passing north of the area will briefly disrupt the 5h ridge and
help keep a weakening front stalled in the region. The remains of
the front end up stalled just north of the area into Wed before
being lifting north by the rebuilding Bermuda High. Increased
moisture associated with the front will increase precip chances
early next week and keep daytime temps closer to climo. Mid level
ridging re- establishes itself late in the period with
temperatures above climo returning. Diurnal convection will be
possible each afternoon/evening with the highest pop early in the
period, associated with the aforementioned shortwave and stalled
front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 00Z...Periods of MVFR possible in convection tonight and areas
of fog towards morning. Otherwise expect VFR with VCSH/VCTS.

Latest radar imagery depicts a few SHRA/TSRA moving into the area,
with a majority of the convection well upstream. As this activity
moves closer, have kept in VCTS/VCSH through the early overnight
hours, with brief MVFR possible in any heavier downpour. West-
southwest winds around 10 kts, with occasional higher gusts
possible. Towards morning, patchy areas of fog are possible,
especially inland. After daybreak, conditions improve to VFR, with
westerly winds around 10 kts and VCTS/VCSH through the end of the
valid taf period.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Possible brief MVFR/IFR during
isolated to scattered thunderstorms each day. Possible brief MVFR
from fog each morning, particularly over areas where substantial
rainfall occurs.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 800 PM Friday...Expect some tightening of the pressure
gradient ahead of organized convection. Sustained SW winds of 15
to 20 kt. This will generate seas of 3 to 5 ft...highest
overnight. Strong thunderstorms are expected to move out across
the waters late tonight, with the greatest coverage expected
across the northern waters.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday...A little variation for a change in the
short term. Most of the period will feature the typical
southwesterly flow between the piedmont trough and west atlantic
high pressure. Saturday night into Sunday morning the former will
push offshore and briefly veer the winds considerably, perhaps
even to NW. The trough will lift back inland and reform in its
normal position later Sunday allowing for a return of
southwesterly flow. Seas are not expected to change much through
this variation.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Bermuda High will maintain southwest flow
over the waters through the period. Gradient is a little more
defined early in the period and speeds will be in the 10 to 15 kt
range. Gradient starts to relax Wed with speeds dropping to 10 kt
or less. Seas 2 to 4 ft Mon and Tue drop to 2 to 3 ft Tue night
and 2 ft or less Wed.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1032 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-024-100245-
ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-COASTAL PENDER-
INLAND NEW HANOVER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-INLAND BRUNSWICK-
COASTAL BRUNSWICK-MARLBORO-DILLON-
1032 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 365 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HEAT INDICES MAY EXCEED 105 DEGREES AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

SCZ023-032-033-039-053>056-100245-
DARLINGTON-FLORENCE-MARION-WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-COASTAL HORRY-
INLAND GEORGETOWN-COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
1032 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HEAT INDICES MAY EXCEED 105 DEGREES AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

AMZ250-252-254-256-100245-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT
20 NM-
1032 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT ACROSS THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

27

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1045 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

SCZ023-024-032-033-090345-
MARION SC-FLORENCE SC-DILLON SC-DARLINGTON SC-
1045 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHWESTERN FLORENCE...
DARLINGTON...NORTHWESTERN MARION AND SOUTHWESTERN DILLON COUNTIES
UNTIL 1145 PM EDT...

AT 1045 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER CLYDE...OR NEAR HARTSVILLE...MOVING EAST...SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF UP 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FLORENCE...HARTSVILLE...MARION...DARLINGTON...TIMMONSVILLE...LAMAR...
QUINBY...SELLERS...BLUE BRICK...EFFINGHAM...KELLYTOWN...
CARTERSVILLE...FLORENCE DARLINGTON TECHNICAL COLLEGE MAIN CAMPUS...
DOVESVILLE...NORTH HARTSVILLE...EVERGREEN...MONT CLARE...
DARLINGTON RACEWAY...FLOYD AND MARS BLUFF.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 126 AND 141.
 INTERSTATE 95 IN SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR MILE MARKER 146...AND BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 150 AND 179.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3447 8009 3449 7984 3439 7972 3437 7967
      3436 7969 3430 7965 3430 7963 3434 7961
      3428 7930 3402 7940 3407 8002 3409 8008
      3415 8015 3416 8016 3420 8011 3423 8011
      3433 8018 3436 8018 3433 8023 3439 8024
TIME...MOT...LOC 0245Z 271DEG 42KT 3437 8017

SHK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1045 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

SCZ023-024-032-033-090345-
MARION SC-FLORENCE SC-DILLON SC-DARLINGTON SC-
1045 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHWESTERN FLORENCE...
DARLINGTON...NORTHWESTERN MARION AND SOUTHWESTERN DILLON COUNTIES
UNTIL 1145 PM EDT...

AT 1045 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER CLYDE...OR NEAR HARTSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF UP 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FLORENCE...HARTSVILLE...MARION...DARLINGTON...TIMMONSVILLE...LAMAR...
QUINBY...SELLERS...BLUE BRICK...EFFINGHAM...KELLYTOWN...
CARTERSVILLE...FLORENCE DARLINGTON TECHNICAL COLLEGE MAIN CAMPUS...
DOVESVILLE...NORTH HARTSVILLE...EVERGREEN...MONT CLARE...
DARLINGTON RACEWAY...FLOYD AND MARS BLUFF.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 126 AND 141.
 INTERSTATE 95 IN SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR MILE MARKER 146...AND BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 150 AND 179.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3447 8009 3449 7984 3439 7972 3437 7967
      3436 7969 3430 7965 3430 7963 3434 7961
      3428 7930 3402 7940 3407 8002 3409 8008
      3415 8015 3416 8016 3420 8011 3423 8011
      3433 8018 3436 8018 3433 8023 3439 8024
TIME...MOT...LOC 0245Z 271DEG 42KT 3437 8017

SHK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1046 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1029 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HEBRON                  34.58N  79.59W
07/08/2016                   MARLBORO           SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            REPORT OF TWO TREES DOWN AT INTERSECTION OF HEBRON
            DUNBAR...HEBRON CHURCH...AND MANNING FARM ROAD. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1600189

LACORTE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1056 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

NCZ096-105-090400-
BLADEN NC-INLAND PENDER NC-
1056 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR BLADEN AND SOUTHWESTERN PENDER
COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT...

AT 1056 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER WHITE OAK...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF ELIZABETHTOWN...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF UP 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELIZABETHTOWN...ROWAN...BLADENBORO...LAGOON...COUNCIL...WHITE OAK...
ABBOTTSBURG...KELLY...AMMON...JEROME...POINT CASWELL...RUSKIN...
TOBERMORY...BUTTERS...ELKTON...CARVERS...LISBON...EMERSON...
DUART AND BLADEN COMMUNITY COLLEGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3466 7833 3460 7830 3455 7825 3457 7824
      3438 7809 3442 7856 3445 7862 3445 7866
      3447 7867 3446 7882 3447 7886 3451 7884
      3456 7886 3464 7881 3469 7881 3474 7886
      3483 7890 3485 7880 3486 7850
TIME...MOT...LOC 0256Z 319DEG 41KT 3473 7874

SHK