Heat Advisory 6, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
126 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms will come to an
end overnight. Oppressive heat and humidity will continue for one
more day on Saturday. A cold front will drop south into the
Carolinas Sunday bringing slightly lower temperatures and humidity
before returning north Monday. Bermuda high pressure will build
westward and dominate the weather through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1100 PM Friday...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued
til 200 am and includes southeast North Carolina and Marlboro and
Dillon counties in South Carolina. The organized squall line has
made it as far south and east as Robeson and Bladen counties and
southwest through Marlboro and Darlington counties. The cold pool
generated gust front is becoming apparent, and has recently moved
across EYF and near FLO, pressing SE at about 33 kt. As this
feature outruns the thunderstorms further to the northwest, we
would expect to see a slow weakening trend. Still for the next
couple of hours at least, strong to damaging wind gusts and
frequent lightning are expected in and near the watch area. After
that time, sufficient cooling and stabilization of the boundary
layer should help keep strong winds from reaching the surface.

Organized convection in association with MCV crossing North
Carolina will move offshore overnight, taking the large complex of
thunderstorms to the east and offshore. Will show POPs up to
categorical/likely trending lower overnight, lastly at the coast.

Dropped minimums to the lower to mid 70s with more in the way of
upper 70s at the beaches and far southern areas where the large
scale associated the effects of the large scale cold pool will be
least pronounced.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Although the short term is primarily a
temperature forecast it is a difficult one. Previously it was
thought that Saturday was to be the hottest of this heat wave. Two
things have called that into doubt. First off, today did not grow as
hot as forecast in most places. Second, MET guidance has dropped
from previous runs, the MET being the model with the better
verification as of late. In the end tomorrow may be quite similar to
today temperature-wise especially as there is little synoptic
change. Today's heat advisory fell short albeit narrowly and will
not raise one for tomorrow at this time. Convection will largely be
capped as with recent days minus the evening shortwaves so POPs top
out at 20 percent. On Sunday mid level flow goes from WNW to WSW
allowing for some moistening. The added cloud cover should temper
highs by just a few degrees. The capping should also be weakened
allowing for isolated convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Surface and mid level ridging will be the
dominant features during the period. Early next week a shortwave
passing north of the area will briefly disrupt the 5h ridge and
help keep a weakening front stalled in the region. The remains of
the front end up stalled just north of the area into Wed before
being lifting north by the rebuilding Bermuda High. Increased
moisture associated with the front will increase precip chances
early next week and keep daytime temps closer to climo. Mid level
ridging re- establishes itself late in the period with
temperatures above climo returning. Diurnal convection will be
possible each afternoon/evening with the highest pop early in the
period, associated with the aforementioned shortwave and stalled
front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 06Z...Periods of MVFR possible in any lingering convection
into early overnight along with areas of fog towards morning.
Otherwise expect VFR with VCSH/VCTS.

Latest radar imagery continues to depict line of convection moving
towards the coastal terminals, with lingering VCSH inland, which is
expected to continue over the next few hours. As a result, areas of
MVFR along with higher gusts are possible. Towards morning, patchy
areas of fog are possible, especially inland. After daybreak,
conditions improve to VFR, with westerly winds around 10 kts and
VCTS/VCSH through the end of the valid taf period. Higher gusts are
possible in any convection.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Possible brief MVFR/IFR during isolated to
scattered thunderstorms each day. Possible brief MVFR from fog each
morning, particularly over areas where substantial rainfall occurs.
Otherwise expect VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1100 PM Friday...Expect some tightening of the pressure
gradient ahead of organized convection. Sustained SW winds of 15
to 20 kt. This will generate seas of 3 to 5 ft...highest
overnight. Strong thunderstorms will move out across the waters
late tonight, with the greatest coverage expected across the
northern waters.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday...A little variation for a change in the
short term. Most of the period will feature the typical
southwesterly flow between the piedmont trough and west atlantic
high pressure. Saturday night into Sunday morning the former will
push offshore and briefly veer the winds considerably, perhaps
even to NW. The trough will lift back inland and reform in its
normal position later Sunday allowing for a return of
southwesterly flow. Seas are not expected to change much through
this variation.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Bermuda High will maintain southwest flow
over the waters through the period. Gradient is a little more
defined early in the period and speeds will be in the 10 to 15 kt
range. Gradient starts to relax Wed with speeds dropping to 10 kt
or less. Seas 2 to 4 ft Mon and Tue drop to 2 to 3 ft Tue night
and 2 ft or less Wed.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL\

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1247 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 AM     TSTM WND DMG     PERKINS CROSSROADS      34.11N  79.82W
07/09/2016                   FLORENCE           SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            REPORT OF TREE DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF W JOHN PAUL
            JONES RD AND SAVANNAH GROVE RD. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1600197

LACORTE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1248 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1206 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE RED BLUFF CROSSRO 33.92N  78.84W
07/09/2016                   HORRY              SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREE DOWN ON RED BLUFF RD. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1600198

LACORTE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1249 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1202 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE KELLY              34.46N  78.31W
07/09/2016                   BLADEN             NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE FELL ON HOME IN KELLY... ON PINEWOOD ROAD OFF OF
            LIGHTKNOT ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1600200

MJC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
107 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016

SCZ039-055-090600-
WILLIAMSBURG SC-INLAND GEORGETOWN SC-
107 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR WESTERN GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG
COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM EDT...

AT 105 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 9
MILES WEST OF SALTERS...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF UP 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KINGSTREE...ANDREWS...WARSAW...GOURDIN...EARLE...GRAVES...
PLANTERSVILLE...TRIO...SALTERS...OATLAND...LAMBERT...SAMPIT...
RHEMS...MORRISVILLE...LANE...
GREELEYVILLE AND WILLIAMSBURG REGIONAL HOSPITAL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3327 7955 3326 7956 3327 7956 3332 7971
      3332 7974 3338 7979 3337 7980 3339 7984
      3343 7988 3344 7987 3350 7996 3351 8000
      3349 8000 3351 8001 3350 8002 3351 8009
      3372 7998 3375 7998 3358 7919 3324 7949
TIME...MOT...LOC 0505Z 277DEG 49KT 3362 8001

RJD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
122 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1218 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND JOHNNY MERCER PIER      34.21N  77.80W
07/09/2016  M49 MPH          NEW HANOVER        NC   NOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1600201

MJC

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