Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
649 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

...Updated for 00z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016

Forecast highlights: Active weather for early October standards,
with severe thunderstorms this afternoon- evening, and more
strong/severe storms and heavy rain Thursday late afternoon-
night. Much cooler weather by Friday.

Latest observational trends in concert with short-term hi-res
guidance suggests greatest threat for severe weather this
afternoon/evening will be generally along east of a line extending
from Lincoln to Lyons to Pratt, and generally along/west of the
Flint Hills, along and ahead of an approaching dryline/cold front.
Stout deep layer shear oriented nearly perpendicular to the
dryline (reference 2pm Norman OK sounding) along with decent
instability for October standards will support a handful of
supercells initially, with large hail (possibly up to baseball
size), damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible. Greatest
threat for a tornado or two will be mainly south-central Kansas
into Oklahoma, where greatest instability/low-level moisture will
reside, and also where storms should stay discrete the longest.
Given strong forcing/mid-level cooling, activity should tend to go
linear (broken squall line) within 2-3 hours of initiation, with
the main threat transitioning to marginally severe hail and wind,
although any "tail-end Charlie" storms on the far southern end
over south-central/southeast Kansas/Oklahoma could maintain a
large hail and possible tornado threat well into the evening. As
convection outruns instability, severe threat should tend to wane
later in the evening over far southeast Kansas.

A lull in activity expected Wednesday, although should see
gradually increasing shower/thunderstorm chances by late afternoon
over southeast Kansas as 850-600mb warm advection/moisture
transport increases ahead of an impressive digging western CONUS
trough. These chances will increase/expand for many areas of
eastern Kansas Wednesday night, but severe weather is unlikely
given marginal instability.

Attention then shifts to severe weather and heavy rain potential
Thursday late afternoon-night, especially over southeast Kansas,
as a strong shortwave and associated strong cold front approach
the region. Low-level moisture, precipitable waters and
instability looks to increase for this next system, which will
favor additional strong/severe storms along with the potential for
heavy rain. Heavy rain threat will be amplified by mid/upper flow
oriented parallel to the cold front, and especially if the cold
front slows down as advertised by the GFS. Will continue to
monitor.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016

*Much* cooler weather spreading south across the region by
Friday, with highs in the 60s. Gradual warming trend back into the
70s by Sunday. Slight chances of rain/isolated storms by Sunday
afternoon, but not expecting widespread activity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to progress across eastern
Kansas this evening and overnight ahead of an advancing cold
front. Activity should clear Hutchinson-Salina by 7-8pm, Wichita
by 9-10pm, with activity not getting into Chanute until around
10pm or so. Activity could linger several hours past midnight
across southeast Kansas as the front slows down and low-level jet
impinges upon it. Later tonight into Wednesday morning, could be
looking at MVFR to IFR ceiling/visibilities, as low-level
moisture advects back north amidst a diurnally cooled airmass.
Confidence is low on any one scenario verifying, so only went MVFR
below 2000 ft for now at Wichita-Hutchinson.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    60  83  65  84 /  60  10  40  40
Hutchinson      53  81  61  82 /  50   0  30  30
Newton          56  81  63  81 /  70  10  40  40
ElDorado        59  83  65  82 /  80  10  50  40
Winfield-KWLD   62  85  67  85 /  60  10  50  40
Russell         46  79  54  75 /  10   0  10  10
Great Bend      47  80  55  78 /  10   0  10  10
Salina          51  81  60  81 /  30   0  20  30
McPherson       53  81  60  81 /  50  10  30  30
Coffeyville     64  85  69  87 /  70  20  50  40
Chanute         61  83  67  84 /  70  20  60  50
Iola            61  82  67  84 /  80  20  60  60
Parsons-KPPF    63  85  68  85 /  70  20  60  40

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...ADK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
338 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-052045-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
338 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS,
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS CORRIDOR. VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO
BASEBALL SIZE AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS TO 75 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE. TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS. LATER INTO THE EVENING...THE MAIN RISK IS EXPECTED
TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS A BROKEN LINE
OF STORMS EVOLVES AND MOVES ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT.

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPANDING TO INCLUDE MUCH OF EASTERN
KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. HEAVY RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS CORRIDOR.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

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