Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1217 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2016

Tonight:
Convective trends continue to be the main issue. Outflow boundary
from this mornings rain has washed back north with fairly sharp
differential temperature/wind shift line roughly along Highway
400. In addition, agitated cumulus have festered all day from
just west of KICT toward KGAG. In near term, thinking strong-
severe convection will develop in the next 1-3hrs somewhere in
south central KS and persist well into the evening. This would
appear to be most likely just to the south of area that had the heaviest
rain last night. Quarter hail and 60-70 microburst winds will be
possible. Some low level CAPE and low LCL heights could make
things a bit more interesting as well, but is definitely a minor
threat relative to the other hazards. Storms this afternoon should
be aided by a bit stronger winds and 50kt 300MB jet streak ahead
of shortwave. The shortwave should result in another fairly
widespread area of efficient moderate-heavy rain. Going flood
watch appears on track.

Sunday:
Any temporal adjustments to flash flood watch for lingering
rain is left to the midnight shift given uncertainty on how
things will play out tonight. Expect rain to linger into Sunday
evening in Southeast KS given the slow moving front, with slow
clearing elsewhere. Fair amount of discrepancy on amount of low
clouds behind front. Have trended with the cloudier solutions for
now. This will keep temperatures suppressed for much of the area.

Monday-Tuesday:
Dry conditions and below normal temperatures appear on track for
the fourth. Elevated moisture and warm air advection may result
in some showers around daybreak Tuesday into midday Tuesday. Both
NAM/ECMWF seemed excessive with very high 850MB moisture during
that period. Temperatures should warm on Tuesday as 500MB heights
increase. Those temperatures on Tuesday may not quite be high
enough given thicknesses, but with anticipated rainfall may be ok.
-Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2016

Minor tweaks to initialization grids with maxes likely a bit cool
given thicknesses. Some ridge building is underway at the start of
the period, while another shortwave moves through late. As
expected, differences between GFS/ECMWF in timing of shortwave
lead to significant differences in surface boundary location and
precipitation by last half of period. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sun Jul 3 2016

Showers/storms with heavy rainfall and gusty winds will continue
to push slowly south and east across the region overnight with
some reductions on visibility/low cigs. Meanwhile low clouds will
overspread central Kansas with LIFR conditions through the mid-
morning hours. A cold front will push southward across the are on
Sunday with winds switching around to the north and low cigs
gradually improving during the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    66  82  66  89 / 100  40  10   0
Hutchinson      64  79  63  89 / 100  30  10   0
Newton          65  79  63  87 / 100  40  10   0
ElDorado        67  81  65  86 / 100  60  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   68  86  68  89 / 100  60  30  10
Russell         62  77  60  91 /  80  20  10   0
Great Bend      63  78  61  91 /  80  20   0   0
Salina          64  77  63  88 /  90  30  10  10
McPherson       64  77  61  87 / 100  30  10   0
Coffeyville     71  88  68  86 /  90  80  60  10
Chanute         69  85  67  85 / 100  70  50  10
Iola            69  83  66  84 / 100  70  50  10
Parsons-KPPF    70  87  68  86 /  90  70  50  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ047>053-
067>072-082-083.

&&

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...CDJ

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1232 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 ESE MCCONNELL AFB     37.61N 97.22W
07/03/2016                   SEDGWICK           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF A VEHICLE SWEPT OFF THE ROAD INTO A WATERWAY AT
            47TH STREET SOUTH AND GREENWICH...A WATER RESCUE OF THREE
            INDIVIDUALS IS UNDERWAY.

&&

JMR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1236 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

KSZ070-092>095-098-099-030630-
CHAUTAUQUA KS-ELK KS-WILSON KS-GREENWOOD KS-SUMNER KS-COWLEY KS-
MONTGOMERY KS-
1236 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  ELK COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  WILSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN GREENWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN SUMNER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  COWLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...

* UNTIL 130 AM CDT

* AT 1234 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FALL
  RIVER TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRENOLA TO NEAR GEUDA SPRINGS...AND
  MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ARKANSAS CITY...WINFIELD...NEODESHA...FREDONIA...SEDAN...HOWARD...
  CEDAR VALE...BURDEN...ALTOONA...MOLINE...LONGTON...ELK CITY...
  DEXTER...SEVERY...BUFFALO...GRENOLA...GEUDA SPRINGS...FALL RIVER...
  ELK FALLS AND SYCAMORE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3774 9600 3772 9553 3766 9552 3720 9579
      3700 9647 3700 9745
TIME...MOT...LOC 0534Z 272DEG 23KT 3760 9600 3729 9656 3708 9722

JAKUB