Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
639 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2016

Tonight:
Convective trends continue to be the main issue. Outflow boundary
from this mornings rain has washed back north with fairly sharp
differential temperature/wind shift line roughly along Highway
400. In addition, agitated cumulus have festered all day from
just west of KICT toward KGAG. In near term, thinking strong-
severe convection will develop in the next 1-3hrs somewhere in
south central KS and persist well into the evening. This would
appear to be most likely just to the south of area that had the heaviest
rain last night. Quarter hail and 60-70 microburst winds will be
possible. Some low level CAPE and low LCL heights could make
things a bit more interesting as well, but is definitely a minor
threat relative to the other hazards. Storms this afternoon should
be aided by a bit stronger winds and 50kt 300MB jet streak ahead
of shortwave. The shortwave should result in another fairly
widespread area of efficient moderate-heavy rain. Going flood
watch appears on track.

Sunday:
Any temporal adjustments to flash flood watch for lingering
rain is left to the midnight shift given uncertainty on how
things will play out tonight. Expect rain to linger into Sunday
evening in Southeast KS given the slow moving front, with slow
clearing elsewhere. Fair amount of discrepancy on amount of low
clouds behind front. Have trended with the cloudier solutions for
now. This will keep temperatures suppressed for much of the area.

Monday-Tuesday:
Dry conditions and below normal temperatures appear on track for
the fourth. Elevated moisture and warm air advection may result
in some showers around daybreak Tuesday into midday Tuesday. Both
NAM/ECMWF seemed excessive with very high 850MB moisture during
that period. Temperatures should warm on Tuesday as 500MB heights
increase. Those temperatures on Tuesday may not quite be high
enough given thicknesses, but with anticipated rainfall may be ok.
-Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2016

Minor tweaks to initialization grids with maxes likely a bit cool
given thicknesses. Some ridge building is underway at the start of
the period, while another shortwave moves through late. As
expected, differences between GFS/ECMWF in timing of shortwave
lead to significant differences in surface boundary location and
precipitation by last half of period. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2016

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will track slowly east across
much of the region tonight. Heavy rain and reduced
visibilities/low cigs are likely at times from some of the
thunderstorms. Meanwhile a cold front will sink southward across
Kansas during the day on Sunday with showers/storms shifting east
of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  82  66  89 /  70  40  10   0
Hutchinson      68  79  63  89 /  70  30  10   0
Newton          68  79  63  87 /  80  40  10   0
ElDorado        72  81  65  86 /  70  60  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   73  86  68  89 /  60  60  30  10
Russell         62  77  60  91 /  60  20  10   0
Great Bend      64  78  61  91 /  60  20   0   0
Salina          66  77  63  88 /  70  30  10  10
McPherson       66  77  61  87 /  80  30  10   0
Coffeyville     75  88  68  86 /  60  80  60  10
Chanute         73  85  67  85 /  70  70  50  10
Iola            72  83  66  84 /  70  70  50  10
Parsons-KPPF    74  87  68  86 /  60  70  50  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ047>053-067>072-
082-083.

&&

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...CDJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
525 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-032230-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
525 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS,
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WIND
GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...SOME OF THE STORMS TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND CAUSE SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS. CHECK THE LATEST FLOOD
WATCH FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RIVER FLOODING WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MID WEEK.

HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGHER VALUES WILL
BE MOST COMMON ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

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