Areal Flood Warning 76, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
253 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Jul 3 2016

Ongoing large mesoscale convective complex stretches from northwest
Oklahoma northeastward across much of eastern Kansas, as a 45 knot
southerly low-level jet feeds strong moisture transport into the 925-
850 mb frontal zone, coincident with an axis of 2 to 2.20 inches of
precipitable water. Torrential rainfall rates continue mainly across
portions of south-central and southeast Kansas, with plenty of
ongoing flooding and flash flooding ongoing. Lift is also being
aided by a shortwave trough over central Kansas which is moving
slowly eastward. As this wave moves eastward this morning, the
low-level jet is progged to gradually veer to southwesterly, which
should shift the heaviest rainfall over far southeast Kansas by
daybreak, before pushing east of there by late morning. Have
preliminarily extended the flash flood watch til 18Z for southeast
Kansas and will let the current watch continue til 12Z for much of
central and south-central Kansas. Widespread convective outflow
and considerable cloudiness should lead to a cooler than normal
early July day today. Some possibility that storms could linger or
redevelop by this afternoon over southeast Kansas with the models
still showing the main synoptic front moving through, however this
is uncertain given this morning's complex and potential outflow
effects.

Given skies clear out tonight behind the front, areas of radiation
fog may develop underneath the low-level ridge axis with light
winds/clear skies across central and south-central Kansas.

Dry weather still looks on target for the fourth with slightly below
normal temperatures. Models suggest a weak impulse lifting northeast
out of New Mexico across Kansas Tuesday into Tuesday night, with
southerly flow and moisture return ahead of it. This supports the
going slight chance of thunderstorms with warming temperatures and
rather humid air returning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Jul 3 2016

Typical summer-like pattern will affect the Central Plains with mid-
upper ridging dominating, with above normal temperatures and
afternoon heat indices of 100 to 105 possible. Some chance a weak
cold front could migrate southward into the Kansas region late in
the week, as a significant shortwave trough moves across the
Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley. The ECMWF model
amplifies this feature more than than the GFS implying uncertainty
as to how far south this front will get. Will keep 15-20% chance
of storms in late in the week for this front, but not optimistic
and much of this extended period should remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sun Jul 3 2016

Showers/storms with heavy rainfall and gusty winds will continue
to push slowly south and east across the region overnight with
some reductions on visibility/low cigs. Meanwhile low clouds will
overspread central Kansas with LIFR conditions through the mid-
morning hours. A cold front will push southward across the are on
Sunday with winds switching around to the north and low cigs
gradually improving during the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    81  66  87  72 /  30  10   0  10
Hutchinson      78  63  87  70 /  20  10   0  10
Newton          78  63  86  70 /  30  10  10  10
ElDorado        80  65  85  71 /  50  20  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   84  68  86  73 /  50  30  10  10
Russell         76  60  90  70 /  10  10   0  10
Great Bend      77  61  89  69 /  10  10   0  10
Salina          76  63  88  71 /  20  10  10  10
McPherson       76  61  87  70 /  20  10   0  10
Coffeyville     85  68  84  71 /  90  60  10  10
Chanute         82  67  84  70 /  90  50  10  10
Iola            81  66  83  70 /  90  50  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    83  68  85  71 /  90  50  10  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ070>072-
094>096-098>100.

Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ047>053-
067>069-082-083-092-093.

&&

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...CDJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
126 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-040630-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
126 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS,
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...AND PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS WILL CAUSE FLOODING
PROBLEMS OVER SEVERAL LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RIVER FLOODING WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MID WEEK.

HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGHER VALUES WILL
BE MOST COMMON ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...MEASURED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATLY
APPRECIATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1232 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 ESE MCCONNELL AFB     37.61N 97.22W
07/03/2016                   SEDGWICK           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF A VEHICLE SWEPT OFF THE ROAD INTO A WATERWAY AT
            47TH STREET SOUTH AND GREENWICH...A WATER RESCUE OF THREE
            INDIVIDUALS IS UNDERWAY.

&&

JMR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1236 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

KSZ070-092>095-098-099-030630-
CHAUTAUQUA KS-ELK KS-WILSON KS-GREENWOOD KS-SUMNER KS-COWLEY KS-
MONTGOMERY KS-
1236 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  ELK COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  WILSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN GREENWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN SUMNER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  COWLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...

* UNTIL 130 AM CDT

* AT 1234 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FALL
  RIVER TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRENOLA TO NEAR GEUDA SPRINGS...AND
  MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ARKANSAS CITY...WINFIELD...NEODESHA...FREDONIA...SEDAN...HOWARD...
  CEDAR VALE...BURDEN...ALTOONA...MOLINE...LONGTON...ELK CITY...
  DEXTER...SEVERY...BUFFALO...GRENOLA...GEUDA SPRINGS...FALL RIVER...
  ELK FALLS AND SYCAMORE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3774 9600 3772 9553 3766 9552 3720 9579
      3700 9647 3700 9745
TIME...MOT...LOC 0534Z 272DEG 23KT 3760 9600 3729 9656 3708 9722

JAKUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1241 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KECHI                   37.80N 97.28W
07/02/2016                   SEDGWICK           KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MULTIPLE LARGE TREES SNAPPED AND UPROOTED ACROSS TOWN. A
            FIREWORK TENT WAS ALSO COLLAPSED DUE TO THUNDERSTORM
            WINDS. THIS IS A DELAYED REPORT WITH INFORMATION GATHERED
            FROM LOCAL MEDIA WEBPAGES.

&&

JMR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1256 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1253 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WICHITA EISENHOWER NATL 37.66N 97.44W
07/03/2016  M3.15 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            6 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL.

&&

JMR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
100 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PARK CITY               37.80N 97.32W
07/03/2016  M5.40 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            9 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL AS OF 1AM. RAIN BEGAN TO FALL
            AROUND 4PM ON SATURDAY.

&&

JMR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
108 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0106 AM     HEAVY RAIN       NORTHEAST WICHITA       37.75N 97.22W
07/03/2016  M6.04 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   PUBLIC

            6.04 INCHES MEASURED AT 13TH AND GREENWICH AS OF
            MIDNIGHT. THIS IS A DAILY TOTAL FOR SATURDAY THE 2ND.

&&

JMC