Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1037 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Tonight-Saturday:
Convective trends will be the big issue. Confidence is lower
today than yesterday with very questionable model initialization
of low level moisture this morning. Mcv will continue to generate
rain showers through at least sunset, with precipitation slowly
working east. The main issue is if/where precipitation will be
overnight. Concerned that differential heating/convergence on
outflow/boundary along Red River to OK Panhandle may be focus for
more vigorous storms. Instability is marginal over forecast area
and not expecting much change overnight. Models were advertising
significant increase in 850MB-700MB flow and frontogenesis last
night, which never materialized. 1200 UTC models are doing this
once again. The bottom line is that confidence that the big QPF models
are advertising is correct is quite low, but not ready to say it
is impossible either. Current thinking is that something closer
to what happened this morning will occur once again. Also thinking
there could be extensive clouds and isolated precipitation
lingering for much of the day, so not sure that the very warm
temperatures in the south will be realized. However if models are
correct with surface boundary lifting north, then even warmer
temperatures maybe conservative. At this point, going forecast
looked to be the best middle of the road forecast.

Saturday night-Monday:
Considerable uncertainty remains throughout this period. Models
still show shortwave moving through Saturday night, so confidence
in higher precipitation chances/QPF for Saturday night-Sunday
still look possible. Chances for dry conditions on the fourth
still look on track for much of the area. Temperatures will remain
quite tricky with amount of clouds and boundary location key.
Given extensive clouds on Sunday, trended temps down just a bit.
-Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Minor tweaks to initialization grids. Initial zonal flow
transitions to more ridging by end of period. This will result in
warming temperatures. Suspect based on thicknesses, highs on
Wednesday/Thursday will more likely top the century mark. Kept
small chances for precipitation in for late night/early Tuesday for
elevated rain showers/thunderstorms around daybreak. Model
uncertainty is high with regard to surface boundary that may drift
into the area during the later half of the period. -howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Numerous showers/storms will develop and spread eastward into
central and south central Kansas overnight and linger into the
early morning hours. Meanwhile surface winds will switch to the
south and increase ahead of an approaching cold front. More storms
are expected to develop along and ahead of the front for late
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    69  90  70  80 /  50  40  80  50
Hutchinson      68  86  67  79 /  60  60  80  40
Newton          66  85  68  79 /  60  50  80  50
ElDorado        68  89  69  79 /  50  40  80  60
Winfield-KWLD   71  94  72  84 /  30  20  70  60
Russell         65  79  62  77 /  80  70  60  30
Great Bend      67  83  64  78 /  80  70  80  30
Salina          65  82  65  77 /  80  70  80  40
McPherson       66  84  65  78 /  70  60  80  40
Coffeyville     71  93  74  86 /  30  20  60  70
Chanute         68  89  72  82 /  40  40  70  70
Iola            67  87  70  81 /  50  50  70  70
Parsons-KPPF    70  91  73  85 /  30  30  60  70

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...CDJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
828 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-030130-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
828 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS,
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HOW
WIDESPREAD THE RAIN WILL BE...BUT APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW LOCATIONS
DUE TO HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND
RESULTANT FLOODING. SOME STRONG STORMS WITH 50 TO 60 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED OVER THE LONG FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS
FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES TO 100 TO
105 OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT THERE
ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1032 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0539 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHAUTAUQUA              37.02N 96.18W
06/30/2016                   CHAUTAUQUA         KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            THE EAST SIDE DOOR OF THE FIRE BARN WAS PUSHED IN 12 TO
            18 INCHES. TIME IS BASED ON RADAR AND PREVIOUS REPORTS.
            CORRECTED FOR TIME.

&&

JMR

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