Severe Thunderstorm Warning 212, NWS Wichita, KS

883 
WWUS53 KICT 022252
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
552 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

KSC015-022330-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0212.000000T0000Z-160702T2330Z/
BUTLER KS-
552 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL BUTLER COUNTY...

AT 552 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LEON...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE 
         TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
         ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EL DORADO...ANDOVER...AUGUSTA...TOWANDA...LEON...ROSALIA...
CASSODAY...EL DORADO STATE PARK...AUGUSTA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...
EL DORADO LAKE...EL DORADO AIRPORT...BEAUMONT AND SANTA FE LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3761 9715 3797 9697 3809 9653 3761 9653
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 272DEG 14KT 3775 9681 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

HOWERTON

269 
WWUS53 KICT 022323
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
623 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

KSC015-022330-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0212.000000T0000Z-160702T2330Z/
BUTLER KS-
623 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN BUTLER COUNTY...

AT 623 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES NORTHEAST
OF LEON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE 
         HOMES...ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROSALIA AND BEAUMONT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3761 9672 3797 9673 3798 9653 3761 9653
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 263DEG 24KT 3778 9655 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

HOWERTON

950 
WWUS53 KICT 022335
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
635 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

KSC015-022344-
/O.EXP.KICT.SV.W.0212.000000T0000Z-160702T2330Z/
BUTLER KS-
635 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN BUTLER COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
AND EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3761 9672 3797 9673 3798 9653 3761 9653
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 263DEG 24KT 3778 9655 

$$

HOWERTON

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
325 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2016

Tonight:
Convective trends continue to be the main issue. Outflow boundary
from this mornings rain has washed back north with fairly sharp
differential temperature/wind shift line roughly along Highway
400. In addition, agitated cumulus have festered all day from
just west of KICT toward KGAG. In near term, thinking strong-
severe convection will develop in the next 1-3hrs somewhere in
south central KS and persist well into the evening. This would
appear to be most likely just to the south of area that had the heaviest
rain last night. Quarter hail and 60-70 microburst winds will be
possible. Some low level CAPE and low LCL heights could make
things a bit more interesting as well, but is definitely a minor
threat relative to the other hazards. Storms this afternoon should
be aided by a bit stronger winds and 50kt 300MB jet streak ahead
of shortwave. The shortwave should result in another fairly
widespread area of efficient moderate-heavy rain. Going flood
watch appears on track.

Sunday:
Any temporal adjustments to flash flood watch for lingering
rain is left to the midnight shift given uncertainty on how
things will play out tonight. Expect rain to linger into Sunday
evening in Southeast KS given the slow moving front, with slow
clearing elsewhere. Fair amount of discrepancy on amount of low
clouds behind front. Have trended with the cloudier solutions for
now. This will keep temperatures suppressed for much of the area.

Monday-Tuesday:
Dry conditions and below normal temperatures appear on track for
the fourth. Elevated moisture and warm air advection may result
in some showers around daybreak Tuesday into midday Tuesday. Both
NAM/ECMWF seemed excessive with very high 850MB moisture during
that period. Temperatures should warm on Tuesday as 500MB heights
increase. Those temperatures on Tuesday may not quite be high
enough given thicknesses, but with anticipated rainfall may be ok.
-Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2016

Minor tweaks to initialization grids with maxes likely a bit cool
given thicknesses. Some ridge building is underway at the start of
the period, while another shortwave moves through late. As
expected, differences between GFS/ECMWF in timing of shortwave
lead to significant differences in surface boundary location and
precipitation by last half of period. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2016

This is certainly a messy forecast with the arrival of the upper
trough, residual moisture, and expected precipitation. A lull will
remain in the precipitation activity for the next few hours;
however, showers and thunderstorms will re-develop around 21-01z.
While the activity may start as scattered, it is expected to
become more widespread. Potential persistence in thunderstorms
and uncertainty on their longevity challenged longer periods of
TSRA for south central Kansas, but flight categories may go from
MVFR and drop to IFR with the stronger activity. It is likely that
this will be modified and shortened with the next forecast.

Winds will transition with the movement of the front from
southeast to the west. Models are hinting at IFR if not LIFR cloud
cover on the back side for KRSL and KSLN closer to 12z after the
showers and storms exit. A downward trend of precipitation can be
found at the back end of the forecast for all but KCNU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  82  66  89 /  70  40  10   0
Hutchinson      68  79  63  89 /  70  30  10   0
Newton          68  79  63  87 /  80  40  10   0
ElDorado        72  81  65  86 /  70  60  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   73  86  68  89 /  60  60  30  10
Russell         62  77  60  91 /  60  20  10   0
Great Bend      64  78  61  91 /  60  20   0   0
Salina          66  77  63  88 /  70  30  10  10
McPherson       66  77  61  87 /  80  30  10   0
Coffeyville     75  88  68  86 /  60  80  60  10
Chanute         73  85  67  85 /  70  70  50  10
Iola            72  83  66  84 /  70  70  50  10
Parsons-KPPF    74  87  68  86 /  60  70  50  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ047>053-067>072-
082-083.

&&

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...VJP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
525 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-032230-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
525 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS,
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WIND
GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...SOME OF THE STORMS TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND CAUSE SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS. CHECK THE LATEST FLOOD
WATCH FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RIVER FLOODING WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MID WEEK.

HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGHER VALUES WILL
BE MOST COMMON ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
459 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     TSTM WND GST     VALLEY CENTER           37.84N 97.37W
07/02/2016  M58 MPH          SEDGWICK           KS   PUBLIC

&&

JMR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
500 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NE NORTHEAST WICHITA  37.80N 97.16W
07/02/2016  M65 MPH          SEDGWICK           KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT RELAYED VIA TWITTER FROM KFDI NEWS.

&&

JMR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
512 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     TSTM WND GST     BENTON                  37.79N 97.11W
07/02/2016  E50 MPH          BUTLER             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WITH PEA SIZE HAIL

&&

JMR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
516 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 NW FALL RIVER         37.70N 96.11W
07/02/2016  E60 MPH          GREENWOOD          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JMR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
520 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND GST     BENTON                  37.79N 97.11W
07/02/2016  M59 MPH          BUTLER             KS   AWOS

&&

JMR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
524 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     HAIL             HUMBOLDT                37.81N 95.44W
07/02/2016  M0.25 INCH       ALLEN              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PEA SIZE HAIL WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

JMR