Areal Flood Warning 68, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
325 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2016

Tonight:
Convective trends continue to be the main issue. Outflow boundary
from this mornings rain has washed back north with fairly sharp
differential temperature/wind shift line roughly along Highway
400. In addition, agitated cumulus have festered all day from
just west of KICT toward KGAG. In near term, thinking strong-
severe convection will develop in the next 1-3hrs somewhere in
south central KS and persist well into the evening. This would
appear to be most likely just to the south of area that had the heaviest
rain last night. Quarter hail and 60-70 microburst winds will be
possible. Some low level CAPE and low LCL heights could make
things a bit more interesting as well, but is definitely a minor
threat relative to the other hazards. Storms this afternoon should
be aided by a bit stronger winds and 50kt 300MB jet streak ahead
of shortwave. The shortwave should result in another fairly
widespread area of efficient moderate-heavy rain. Going flood
watch appears on track.

Sunday:
Any temporal adjustments to flash flood watch for lingering
rain is left to the midnight shift given uncertainty on how
things will play out tonight. Expect rain to linger into Sunday
evening in Southeast KS given the slow moving front, with slow
clearing elsewhere. Fair amount of discrepancy on amount of low
clouds behind front. Have trended with the cloudier solutions for
now. This will keep temperatures suppressed for much of the area.

Monday-Tuesday:
Dry conditions and below normal temperatures appear on track for
the fourth. Elevated moisture and warm air advection may result
in some showers around daybreak Tuesday into midday Tuesday. Both
NAM/ECMWF seemed excessive with very high 850MB moisture during
that period. Temperatures should warm on Tuesday as 500MB heights
increase. Those temperatures on Tuesday may not quite be high
enough given thicknesses, but with anticipated rainfall may be ok.
-Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2016

Minor tweaks to initialization grids with maxes likely a bit cool
given thicknesses. Some ridge building is underway at the start of
the period, while another shortwave moves through late. As
expected, differences between GFS/ECMWF in timing of shortwave
lead to significant differences in surface boundary location and
precipitation by last half of period. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2016

This is certainly a messy forecast with the arrival of the upper
trough, residual moisture, and expected precipitation. A lull will
remain in the precipitation activity for the next few hours;
however, showers and thunderstorms will re-develop around 21-01z.
While the activity may start as scattered, it is expected to
become more widespread. Potential persistence in thunderstorms
and uncertainty on their longevity challenged longer periods of
TSRA for south central Kansas, but flight categories may go from
MVFR and drop to IFR with the stronger activity. It is likely that
this will be modified and shortened with the next forecast.

Winds will transition with the movement of the front from
southeast to the west. Models are hinting at IFR if not LIFR cloud
cover on the back side for KRSL and KSLN closer to 12z after the
showers and storms exit. A downward trend of precipitation can be
found at the back end of the forecast for all but KCNU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  82  66  89 /  70  40  10   0
Hutchinson      68  79  63  89 /  70  30  10   0
Newton          68  79  63  87 /  80  40  10   0
ElDorado        72  81  65  86 /  70  60  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   73  86  68  89 /  60  60  30  10
Russell         62  77  60  91 /  60  20  10   0
Great Bend      64  78  61  91 /  60  20   0   0
Salina          66  77  63  88 /  70  30  10  10
McPherson       66  77  61  87 /  80  30  10   0
Coffeyville     75  88  68  86 /  60  80  60  10
Chanute         73  85  67  85 /  70  70  50  10
Iola            72  83  66  84 /  70  70  50  10
Parsons-KPPF    74  87  68  86 /  60  70  50  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ047>053-067>072-
082-083.

&&

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...VJP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
419 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-032130-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
419 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS,
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RENEWED AND ADDITIONAL
FLOODING. CHECK THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR DETAILS.

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ALSO RESULTED IN SOME FLOODING ON A FEW RIVERS
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS. CHECK THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD
WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND A SMALL PART OF CENTRAL KANSAS. WIND
GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH AND PEA TO NICKLE SIZED HAIL IS MOST
LIKELY...HOWEVER A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THE SEVERE
STORMS WOULD PRODUCE QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND WINDS TO 70 MPH. MOST
OF THE STORMS TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RIVER FLOODING WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MID WEEK.

HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGHER VALUES WILL
BE MOST COMMON ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT DUE TO THE
ISOLATED/BRIEF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. HOWEVER REPORTS OF
FLOODING OR RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

HOWERTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
430 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

KSZ069-022200-
BUTLER KS-
430 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 426 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF SEDGWICK
  COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  EL DORADO...ANDOVER...AUGUSTA...ROSE HILL...TOWANDA...BENTON...
  WHITEWATER...LEON...POTWIN...ELBING...BURNS...
  EL DORADO STATE PARK...SANTA FE LAKE...AUGUSTA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...
  EL DORADO LAKE AND EL DORADO AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3759 9715 3809 9715 3809 9680 3766 9677
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 243DEG 22KT 3782 9720

KLEINSASSER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
434 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

KSZ070-022200-
GREENWOOD KS-
434 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN GREENWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 432 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF SEVERY...OR 9 MILES
  SOUTHEAST OF EUREKA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SEVERY...CLIMAX...FALL RIVER LAKE...FALL RIVER STATE PARK AND CROSS
  TIMBERS STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3761 9636 3772 9637 3795 9608 3784 9596
      3769 9596 3760 9612
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 227DEG 16KT 3770 9619

KLEINSASSER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
438 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNW WEST WICHITA      37.72N 97.48W
07/02/2016  E50 MPH          SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED 45 TO 50 MPH WINDS AND
            HEAVY RAIN.

&&

JMR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
443 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

KSZ068-022215-
HARVEY KS-
443 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  HARVEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 442 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WHITEWATER...MOVING NORTHEAST
  AT 20 MPH.

PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  NEWTON...HALSTEAD...NORTH NEWTON...SEDGWICK...WHITEWATER...
  WALTON AND NEWTON AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3791 9758 3804 9755 3817 9730 3817 9715
      3791 9715
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 227DEG 16KT 3796 9718

KLEINSASSER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
459 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     TSTM WND GST     VALLEY CENTER           37.84N 97.37W
07/02/2016  M58 MPH          SEDGWICK           KS   PUBLIC

&&

JMR

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