Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1121 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.UPDATE...
For 06Z TAFS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 830 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Looks like the warm front is now just moving out of our cwa and is
heading into mid TN. Meanwhile a slow moving cdfnt in now extending
over sern MO. Models are still showing a lot of low level shear this
evening and into the overnight hours. However with the warm front
progged to be out of our cwa overnight, the threat of svr wx should
begin to weaken a little after midnight. As the boundary layer cools
and becomes a little more stable overnight, the svr wx threat should
become more of a hvy rain event with some flash flooding possible.
Otherwise the current fcst looks good and see no reason to make any
changes attm.

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 136 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Convection, perhaps near-severe in sports or slowly diminishing,
will still be ongoing across our eastern counties at 12z on
Wednesday. The upper trough axis will push across by early afternoon
ushering in the "cooler" air. Will taper pops from west to east and
also temporally with all areas rain free by afternoon.

Weak surface high will build across the region Wednesday night into
Thursday with sunny and slightly below normal temperatures
anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 136 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Fairly strong cold air advection will continue to advect drier air
into the area Thursday/Thursday night, via northwesterly flow. In
addition, light winds will continue over the Tennessee Valley, as
the surface high will not have moved much. This will allow for a
very good radiational cooling event by Friday morning. It should
allow lows to drop to near dewpoints to around 30 degrees.
Temperatures should rebound to near normal highs during the day on
Friday.

Models all develop a more zonal flow aloft originating from Texas,
as the high pressure remains over the area through Friday night. This
will be in response to a cut-off low that develops over the
southwestern U.S. This should keep highs and lows through Friday
night near normal/slightly above normal (normal highs mid to upper
50s/normal lows mid to upper 30s).

Models do advect deeper moisture eastward into the Tennessee Valley
ahead of it Saturday through Sunday. How far north the deeper
moisture gets and thus rainfall is the difference in the model
forecasts. At this point, including a blend for the forecast.
Saturday night through Sunday are keeping a 30 to 60 percent chance
of rain in the forecast. This likely will be the best time for more
widespread precipitation, but how much greatly depends on which model
solution is correct.

Early next week remains active, as the cut-off low kicks northeast
along the jetstream into Arkansas and into Kentucky. There could be
some stronger thunderstorm potential with this system, but too far
off to address at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

A line of sct storms, ahead of a cdfnt now over sern MO, will
continue thru 09z before beginning to diminish. The cdfnt will go
thru KMSL arnd 12z and by 15z at KHSV. Mainly ifr conditions are
expected at both taf sites thru 18z, after 18z vfr conditions are
expected.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...007
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...KTW
AVIATION...007

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1040 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-301200-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1040 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
AND BRIEF TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY UNTIL 3 AM.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
ON WEDNESDAY BUT MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXITS TO OUR EAST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
IN PROGRESS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1203 AM CST WED NOV 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     TORNADO          1 NNW BROWNSBORO        34.76N 86.46W
11/29/2016                   MADISON            AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL HOMES DAMAGED NORTH OF CENTRAL ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
            ALONG RYLAND PIKE. RELAYED VIA HAM RADIO OPERATORS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1207 AM CST WED NOV 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1104 PM     HAIL             N MORGAN CITY           34.47N 86.57W
11/29/2016  E0.88 INCH       MORGAN             AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1215 AM CST WED NOV 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1157 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S MORGAN CITY         34.40N 86.57W
11/29/2016                   MARSHALL           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWERLINES REPORTED DOWN ALONG PLEASANT VALLEY ROAD IN
            UNION GROVE. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1254 AM CST WED NOV 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     TORNADO          2 NNW IDER              34.73N 85.69W
11/30/2016                   DEKALB             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES AND POWERLINES REPORTED DOWN. MULTIPLE
            INJURIES ALSO REPORTED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1259 AM CST WED NOV 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1226 AM     TORNADO          4 NNE IDER              34.76N 85.65W
11/30/2016                   DEKALB             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF TORN OFF OF A HOME ALONG COUNTY ROAD 159 NORTH OF
            IDER.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
107 AM CST WED NOV 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 AM     TSTM WND GST     6 WSW TRINITY           34.57N 87.17W
11/30/2016  E63 MPH          LAWRENCE           AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPEED MEASURED BY AN APRS WEATHER STATION AT EAST
            LAWRENCE HIGH SCHOOL. RELAYED VIA HAM RADIO OPERATORS.

&&