Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Huntsville, AL

167 
WWUS54 KHUN 300521
SVSHUN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1121 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

ALC071-300530-
/O.EXP.KHUN.SV.W.0073.000000T0000Z-161130T0530Z/
JACKSON AL-
1121 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 1130 PM CST...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CST FOR NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA...AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

LAT...LON 3482 8563 3480 8564 3465 8588 3487 8615
      3499 8598 3499 8561 3486 8559
TIME...MOT...LOC 0520Z 231DEG 42KT 3500 8556 

$$

LN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
834 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 830 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Looks like the warm front is now just moving out of our cwa and is
heading into mid TN. Meanwhile a slow moving cdfnt in now extending
over sern MO. Models are still showing a lot of low level shear this
evening and into the overnight hours. However with the warm front
progged to be out of our cwa overnight, the threat of svr wx should
begin to weaken a little after midnight. As the boundary layer cools
and becomes a little more stable overnight, the svr wx threat should
become more of a hvy rain event with some flash flooding possible.
Otherwise the current fcst looks good and see no reason to make any
changes attm.

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 136 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Convection, perhaps near-severe in sports or slowly diminishing,
will still be ongoing across our eastern counties at 12z on
Wednesday. The upper trough axis will push across by early afternoon
ushering in the "cooler" air. Will taper pops from west to east and
also temporally with all areas rain free by afternoon.

Weak surface high will build across the region Wednesday night into
Thursday with sunny and slightly below normal temperatures
anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 136 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Fairly strong cold air advection will continue to advect drier air
into the area Thursday/Thursday night, via northwesterly flow. In
addition, light winds will continue over the Tennessee Valley, as
the surface high will not have moved much. This will allow for a
very good radiational cooling event by Friday morning. It should
allow lows to drop to near dewpoints to around 30 degrees.
Temperatures should rebound to near normal highs during the day on
Friday.

Models all develop a more zonal flow aloft originating from Texas,
as the high pressure remains over the area through Friday night. This
will be in response to a cut-off low that develops over the
southwestern U.S. This should keep highs and lows through Friday
night near normal/slightly above normal (normal highs mid to upper
50s/normal lows mid to upper 30s).

Models do advect deeper moisture eastward into the Tennessee Valley
ahead of it Saturday through Sunday. How far north the deeper
moisture gets and thus rainfall is the difference in the model
forecasts. At this point, including a blend for the forecast.
Saturday night through Sunday are keeping a 30 to 60 percent chance
of rain in the forecast. This likely will be the best time for more
widespread precipitation, but how much greatly depends on which model
solution is correct.

Early next week remains active, as the cut-off low kicks northeast
along the jetstream into Arkansas and into Kentucky. There could be
some stronger thunderstorm potential with this system, but too far
off to address at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 525 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

A warm front will move north across the cwa tonight while a slow
moving cold front will finally push across the TN valley by
Wednesday aftn. This wx scenario will produce a good chc of shra and
tsra over the taf sites tonight thru much of Wednesday mrng. The best
chc of strong to severe tsra will be tonight. The shra and tsra
activity will begin to taper off by Wednesday aftn. Otherwise vfr
conditions until 02z...after 02z expect mainly ifr conditions thru
18z with vfr conditions after 81z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...007
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...KTW
AVIATION...007

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1040 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-301200-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1040 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
AND BRIEF TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY UNTIL 3 AM.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
ON WEDNESDAY BUT MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXITS TO OUR EAST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
IN PROGRESS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
914 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     HAIL             NE SMITH                34.60N 87.43W
11/29/2016  E0.88 INCH       LAWRENCE           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
936 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND DMG     W CRANE HILL            34.09N 87.06W
11/29/2016                   CULLMAN            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ALONG COUNTY ROAD 946 IN CRANE HILL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
952 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SW RUSSELLVILLE         34.50N 87.73W
11/29/2016                   FRANKLIN           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FOUR TO FIVE FEET OF WATER REPORTED ALONG THE
            INTERSECTION OF TUSCALOOSA STREET AND WASHINGTON AVENUE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1013 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW BROWNSBORO        34.76N 86.46W
11/29/2016                   MADISON            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STRUCTURAL DAMAGE REPORTED AROUND CENTRAL SCHOOL IN
            RYLAND. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1019 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW HUNTSVILLE        34.75N 86.60W
11/29/2016                   MADISON            AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWERPOLE REPORTED DOWN ALONG OAKWOOD AVENUE IN
            HUNTSVILLE. POSSIBLE TORNADO. RELAYED VIA HAM OPERATOR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1030 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     TORNADO          4 ENE MOORES MILL       34.87N 86.46W
11/29/2016                   MADISON            AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO SPOTTED ON THE GROUND FROM BUCKHORN HIGH SCHOOL
            LOOKING NORTHEAST. RELAYED BY HAM RADIO OPERATORS.

&&