River Flood Warning 210, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
446 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Upper low is in the process of stretching/shearing across
Arkansas, La & east Texas. Locally, PW's remain around 2.5"
+/- 0.25". Surface analysis indicates diffuse frontal boundary
situated north of the CWA. Outflow from yesterday & last nights
storms stretch from roughly 40NM south of High Island to Jackson
County and has remained active all night (particularly across our
SW zones).

For today...anticipate precip across southern parts of the region
to eventually also fill back in to the north...esp w/ daytime
heating as it won't take a whole lot of warming for redevelopment.
Have been struggling with the decision whether to pull the
trigger on a FF Watch today. Ideally, you'd like to see a sfc
boundary or focusing mechanism of some sort to produce a
widespread FF threat. That being said, 2.5" PW's, very slow storm
motions (slower than yday), and lower FFG guidance values today
raise an eyebrow. I'm going to lean on the side of caution and go
w/ a short fuse FFA for most of the area today and re-evaluate
things later. Suspect FF issues might be localized in nature again
w/ similar isolated pockets of 3-6", but also need to consider
those spots that have already seen that much.

Atmosphere remains juicy almost all week with 2.2-2.5" PW's
holding tight. Northern parts of the area will be situated closer
to a RRQ of jet on Mon, so that's worth noting for later fcsts.
Otherwise, looking for a somewhat more regular diurnal trend
(albeit w/ more rain coverage) to take shape during the work week.
Increased shra/tstms offshore and near the coast overnight and in
the mornings, followed by inland expansion during the day with
some heating. Given the high moisture levels persisting, suspect
the threat of localized heavy rain totals might remain an issue
ufn. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Onshore winds remain slightly elevated over the offshore waters this
morning but have been trending downward. Will let the SCEC expire as
planned. Otherwise not going to make a lot of changes with the over-
all forecast of mostly light/moderate onshore winds the next several
days. We could see brief periods on slightly elevated onshore winds/
seas in response to the occasional disturbances. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
A messy forecast will continue for the TAFS today (and possibly into
the first half of the upcoming week) as the upper low lingers across
the region. This system is progged to slowly weaken with time but no
significant changes are expected with rain chances for SE TX with PW
values remains high (+2.0-2.5"). Will keep with a blend of VCSH/VCTS
for the most part...trying to time the prevailing TSRA/SHRAs periods
when anticipated. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      87  74  85  74  87 /  80  50  60  50  60
Houston (IAH)              87  75  87  75  89 /  90  40  70  50  70
Galveston (GLS)            86  79  88  79  88 /  70  50  70  70  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     Austin...Brazoria...Chambers...Colorado...Fort Bend...
     Galveston...Grimes...Harris...Jackson...Liberty...
     Matagorda...Montgomery...Polk...San Jacinto...Walker...
     Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT this morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&