Flash Flood Warning 75, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

513 
WGUS74 KHGX 141153
FFSHGX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
653 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

TXC089-239-321-481-141200-
/O.EXP.KHGX.FF.W.0075.000000T0000Z-160814T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WHARTON TX-COLORADO TX-MATAGORDA TX-JACKSON TX-
653 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WHARTON...SOUTHWESTERN
COLORADO...NORTHWESTERN MATAGORDA AND NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 700 AM CDT...

RAINFALL INTENSITY HAS TAPERED OFF. NO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE MAY STILL BE SOME FLOODED ROADWAYS. PLEASE
DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS WATER COVERED ROADS AND HEED ANY REMAINING ROAD
CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 2926 9666 2925 9656 2910 9608 2889 9621
      2904 9641 2898 9650 2895 9678 2897 9681
      2903 9684 2905 9692 2906 9694

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
446 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Upper low is in the process of stretching/shearing across
Arkansas, La & east Texas. Locally, PW's remain around 2.5"
+/- 0.25". Surface analysis indicates diffuse frontal boundary
situated north of the CWA. Outflow from yesterday & last nights
storms stretch from roughly 40NM south of High Island to Jackson
County and has remained active all night (particularly across our
SW zones).

For today...anticipate precip across southern parts of the region
to eventually also fill back in to the north...esp w/ daytime
heating as it won't take a whole lot of warming for redevelopment.
Have been struggling with the decision whether to pull the
trigger on a FF Watch today. Ideally, you'd like to see a sfc
boundary or focusing mechanism of some sort to produce a
widespread FF threat. That being said, 2.5" PW's, very slow storm
motions (slower than yday), and lower FFG guidance values today
raise an eyebrow. I'm going to lean on the side of caution and go
w/ a short fuse FFA for most of the area today and re-evaluate
things later. Suspect FF issues might be localized in nature again
w/ similar isolated pockets of 3-6", but also need to consider
those spots that have already seen that much.

Atmosphere remains juicy almost all week with 2.2-2.5" PW's
holding tight. Northern parts of the area will be situated closer
to a RRQ of jet on Mon, so that's worth noting for later fcsts.
Otherwise, looking for a somewhat more regular diurnal trend
(albeit w/ more rain coverage) to take shape during the work week.
Increased shra/tstms offshore and near the coast overnight and in
the mornings, followed by inland expansion during the day with
some heating. Given the high moisture levels persisting, suspect
the threat of localized heavy rain totals might remain an issue
ufn. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Onshore winds remain slightly elevated over the offshore waters this
morning but have been trending downward. Will let the SCEC expire as
planned. Otherwise not going to make a lot of changes with the over-
all forecast of mostly light/moderate onshore winds the next several
days. We could see brief periods on slightly elevated onshore winds/
seas in response to the occasional disturbances. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
A messy forecast will continue for the TAFS today (and possibly into
the first half of the upcoming week) as the upper low lingers across
the region. This system is progged to slowly weaken with time but no
significant changes are expected with rain chances for SE TX with PW
values remains high (+2.0-2.5"). Will keep with a blend of VCSH/VCTS
for the most part...trying to time the prevailing TSRA/SHRAs periods
when anticipated. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      87  74  85  74  87 /  80  50  60  50  60
Houston (IAH)              87  75  87  75  89 /  90  40  70  50  70
Galveston (GLS)            86  79  88  79  88 /  70  50  70  70  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     Austin...Brazoria...Chambers...Colorado...Fort Bend...
     Galveston...Grimes...Harris...Jackson...Liberty...
     Matagorda...Montgomery...Polk...San Jacinto...Walker...
     Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT this morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
637 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-141145-
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-
LIBERTY-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
637 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT RAINFALL TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. STRONGER SLOW MOVING CELLS MAY PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME PERIOD WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED
STREET FLOODING. LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO EXPAND IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

FAIRLY GOOD RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. WITH
DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING IN PLACE...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STREET FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

TXZ214-235>238-141145-
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-
637 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG LONGSHORE AND RIP CURRENTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT AREA BEACHES. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. STRONGER SLOW MOVING CELLS MAY PRODUCE SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME PERIOD WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

FAIRLY GOOD RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. WITH
DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING IN PLACE...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STREET FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG LONGSHORE AND RIP CURRENTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT AREA BEACHES THIS WEEKEND. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-141145-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
GALVESTON BAY-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
637 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.