Flash Flood Warning 74, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1147 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2016

.AVIATION...
All SETX aviation terminals received measurable rain this
afternoon. The rain moistened soil may contribute to additional
patches of light fog and stratus around daybreak on Sunday
morning.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also resume again late
tomorrow morning and continue throughout the afternoon.

winds in the vicinity of thunderstorms have been gusting to 25
knots...however prevailing winds are southwesterly near 10 knots.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The MCS was pushing through the coastal areas at 10 PM. Behind the
leading edge of the system, light to moderate rainfall was
occurring mainly along and south of the Interstate 10 corridor.

The upper low was located over N LA/S AR with some isolated to
scattered showers moving southward across E Texas toward our area.
The latest high resolution models show only isolated to scattered
coverage overnight for most locations. The global models keep
slightly higher chances in place. Given the current coverage
moving toward the forecast area, tweaked the chances for showers
and thunderstorms down a bit for most locations. Still kept in the
chances for locally heavy rainfall as PW/s ranged from 2 to 2.6
inches on the evening soundings. Will also reassess the rainfall
potential for tomorrow later tonight.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      76  87  74  86  73 /  70  60  40  60  40
Houston (IAH)              78  87  76  87  76 /  70  60  40  60  40
Galveston (GLS)            81  88  80  88  80 /  60  60  40  60  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT Sunday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
     Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
637 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-141145-
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-
LIBERTY-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
637 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT RAINFALL TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. STRONGER SLOW MOVING CELLS MAY PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME PERIOD WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED
STREET FLOODING. LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO EXPAND IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

FAIRLY GOOD RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. WITH
DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING IN PLACE...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STREET FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

TXZ214-235>238-141145-
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-
637 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG LONGSHORE AND RIP CURRENTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT AREA BEACHES. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. STRONGER SLOW MOVING CELLS MAY PRODUCE SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME PERIOD WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

FAIRLY GOOD RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. WITH
DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING IN PLACE...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STREET FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG LONGSHORE AND RIP CURRENTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT AREA BEACHES THIS WEEKEND. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-141145-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
GALVESTON BAY-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
637 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.