Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
312 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper trough will push a cold front through the region today and
tomorrow.  The front will stall just to the south of the area by
Saturday, but then will lift slowly back north late in the weekend
into the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT...Water vapor imagery indicates a subtle impulse
shifting across the Tennessee Valley and upper Gulf Coast States.
This feature will intercept a moist and unstable airmass across our
forecast area late this afternoon and evening. SPC storm information
suggest SBCAPES between 1500 and 3000 j/kg with DCAPES on the order
of 1000 j/kg. Meanwhile left over stratus and breaks in the clouds
have left pockets of differential heating and meso convergent areas.
We would expect rapid thunderstorm formation in our southern
forecast area and mountains, then filling in as the rest of the day
wears on. Damaging winds and large hail main threat, although
torrential rain and frequent lightning will be noted.

We will continue the activity into the night time hours, somewhat
similar to Wednesday night, before activity wanes with passage of
the upper air feature and overturning of atmosphere.

The coverage of any fog and stratus overnight seems to be healthy,
although the winds may help mix things a bit.

For Friday we have gone with warmer temperatures, per guide, and
limited our thunderstorm chances to a narrow window in the
afternoon, and especially along the less side trough.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday: Upper trough axis and surface cold front
will be pushing east of the area as we start the short term. The
frontal boundary will stall to our south on Saturday as the Canadian
upper low lifts northeast and a shortwave pushes off the Central
Rockies into the Central Plains. The surface system associated with
the Plains shortwave will stretch across the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys,
merging with the stalled Southeast front, and providing focus for
convection to pick back up again through the short term as flow
aloft transitions to zonal. The boundary will slide slowly back
north as the Plains shortwave pushes east, with modest instability -
800-1200 J/kg sbCAPE - returning to the area Saturday. Should see a
diurnal trend through Saturday night, but with the Plans shortwave
moving into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Sunday, should see an
enhancement to the diurnal pops for Sunday afternoon, with likely
pops over the mountains and healthy chance elsewhere. High temps
through the short term should be a couple of degrees above seasonal
normals, with a larger departure for overnight lows where the
increasing moisture will not allow for much of a cool-down overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday: Zonal flow will continue across the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys as a subtropical ridge over the western
Atlantic continues to build west toward FL as the shortwave
continues to work its way east up the Ohio Valley. Several
differences continue in models' handling of this shortwave with the
GFS a little more robust especially with the associated surface low.
Should see a fairly significant increase in convection for
Independence Day. Along with the decent instability (sbCAPEs between
1000-2000 J/kg), we have some minimal low-level shear as well which
may help to organize convection. Overall and unfortunately, it looks
like a pretty wet and occasionally stormy day/evening, so residents
of the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia may want to be
prepared for impacts to Independence Day festivities.

The wave pushes east on Tuesday, with the ECMWF keeping an open wave
and pushing it offshore early in the day, but the stronger GFS
closing it off and not pushing it through for another 24 hours.
Quite a bit of uncertainty here obviously but since the ECMWF keeps
a trailing front across our area anyway, both have similar sensible
weather impacts with enhanced diurnal convection continuing through
mid-week. As would be typical with enhanced summertime convection,
heavy rain and at least isolated severe storms will be possible.

The subtropical ridge continues to build westward, with intermittent
shortwaves riding along the northern edge of the ridge. Differences
between the operational guidance increase through the middle of next
week so have trended close to climo on pops, but with a slight
increasing trend for temperatures, rising into the mid-90s, as
thicknesses increase.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and the SC Sites: Although left over stratus remains across
most of our TAF sites, the IFR ceilings have lifted to MVFR and low
VFR ceilings. As mixing continues near thunderstorms for the rest of
the afternoon and into tonight, believe ceilings will jump around
considerably, and potentially driven by meso scale features, until
the overall synoptic pattern takes over with waning convection later
this evening/overnight.

Judging by the various CAM models we have brought thunderstorm
chances into the CLT airfield during the evening. This is trying to
follow large scale features/development, and small scale
interactions. Since ceilings are near MVFR levels, it is possible
that tendency of bouncing in and out will continue through the
evening. We would expect greater restrictions to ceilings and
visibilites with storms near the airfield. We have mentioned some
variable gusty winds to take into account current active situation.

Any stratus and fog should lift to low VFR ceilings Friday morning.

For the remainder of our TAF sites, the biggest difference is in the
timing of convection, arrival and/or development. We have followed
continuity with lower ceilings at sites which were not yet mixed.
Otherwise would expect potential thunderstorms with reduced ceilings
and visibilities across the board.

Outlook: Diurnal convection expected Friday afternoon and Saturday.
Another series of fronts, and potential weak low pressure systems
riding along the fronts, appears on tap for Sunday through Tuesday.
This period may offer an enhanced thunderstorms possibilities.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High  95%     High  98%     High  87%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High  97%     High  81%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High  96%     Med   72%     High  96%
KHKY       High  97%     High  93%     High  81%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High  97%     High  94%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High  96%     High  83%     High  92%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TDP
NEAR TERM...TS
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...TS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1253 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-011700-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1253 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS THE
MAIN THREAT. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
259 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

SCZ019-301930-
GREENWOOD SC-
259 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN GREENWOOD COUNTY
UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 259 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES SOUTHEAST OF GREENWOOD...OR 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NINETY SIX
HISTORIC SITE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NINETY SIX HISTORIC SITE...EPWORTH...KIRKSEY AND CALLISON.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3398 8205 3399 8215 3397 8217 3397 8218
      3416 8214 3413 8187 3411 8190 3410 8190
      3409 8192 3404 8194 3400 8199 3396 8201
      3395 8205
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 281DEG 16KT 3406 8207

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
308 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             5 N ABBEVILLE           34.25N 82.38W
06/30/2016  E1.00 INCH       ABBEVILLE          SC   PUBLIC

&&

JMP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
325 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

GAZ028-SCZ010-302000-
HART GA-ANDERSON SC-
325 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL HART AND
SOUTHWESTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 325 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES EAST OF HARTWELL...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
IVA...STARR...LAKE HARTWELL...BROADWAY LAKE AND SADLERS CREEK STATE
PARK.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LAKE HARTWELL IS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS.
MOVE TO SHORE IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3431 8289 3440 8289 3447 8255 3428 8263
      3427 8265
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 270DEG 9KT 3434 8282

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
346 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

NCZ065-509-302015-
HENDERSON NC-POLK MOUNTAINS NC-
346 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON COUNTY
UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 345 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
HENDERSONVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HENDERSONVILLE...FLAT ROCK...SALUDA...EAST FLAT ROCK AND DANA.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3531 8248 3536 8246 3536 8227 3522 8237
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 294DEG 9KT 3531 8241

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
419 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     HAIL             WARE SHOALS             34.39N 82.24W
06/30/2016  E1.00 INCH       GREENWOOD          SC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEDIA RELAYED PUBLIC VIDEO OF HAIL STORM CONTAINING
            QUARTER SIZE STONES.

&&

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
421 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

NCZ065-507-509-510-302045-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS NC-HENDERSON NC-EASTERN POLK NC-
POLK MOUNTAINS NC-
421 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN POLK AND SOUTHEASTERN
HENDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 420 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HENDERSONVILLE...OR NEAR FLAT ROCK...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HENDERSONVILLE...COLUMBUS...FLAT ROCK...TRYON...SALUDA...CHIMNEY ROCK
STATE PARK...BAT CAVE...LAKE LURE...DANA AND EAST FLAT ROCK.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3546 8223 3519 8215 3520 8229 3519 8232
      3519 8235 3518 8237 3519 8238 3520 8238
      3521 8239 3519 8242 3518 8243 3535 8249
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 301DEG 5KT 3528 8238

LANE