Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

541 
WWUS52 KGSP 300139
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
939 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

SCC045-300148-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-160630T0200Z/
GREENVILLE SC-
939 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN GREENVILLE COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3449 8230 3450 8229 3454 8222 3461 8205
      3445 8203
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 281DEG 7KT 3449 8220 

$$

SCC059-300200-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-160630T0200Z/
LAURENS SC-
939 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL LAURENS COUNTY...

AT 938 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF
LAURENS...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF WARE SHOALS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HICKORY TAVERN AND LAURENS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN IN THE WARNED
AREA. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS STORMS IS ALSO PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOODING OF
DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. SMALL STREAMS WILL
RISE RAPIDLY. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER IS FLOWING OVER
THE ROAD.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL
FREE...1...800... 2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK
PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3449 8230 3450 8229 3454 8222 3461 8205
      3445 8203
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 281DEG 7KT 3449 8220 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

LANE

150 
WWUS52 KGSP 300158
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
958 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

SCC059-300208-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-160630T0200Z/
LAURENS SC-
958 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL LAURENS COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 1000 PM EDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM IN
THE HICKORY TAVERN AREA.

LAT...LON 3449 8230 3450 8229 3454 8222 3461 8205
      3445 8203
TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 260DEG 8KT 3449 8220 

$$

LANE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
802 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure currently in place over the Mid West will drift
slowly eastward toward the area by the end of the week. A slow
moving cold front will stall out south of the area before slowly
pushing northward and moving north of the area by the beginning of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 745 PM...Focus of convective activity has finally shifted
into the Upstate and srn tier of counties in NC, as outflow from
the earlier round over WNC pushes southward through the portion
of the area where instability was not consumed this afternoon. In
light of cyclonic flow persisting aloft, possibly aided by the
right-rear quad of a jet streak centered over the Delmarva, some
elevated parcels could take off overnight. Profiles from the 18z
NAM appear remarkably favorable for elevated convection, if the
weak lift arising from those features proves sufficient. Meso
models mostly continue action through the evening hours but are
generally dry after midnight. Made some slight revisions to the
PoP trends overnight to reflect isolated activity.

The setup Thursday for storms appears still more favorable, even
if the overall pattern is not tremendously different. The deep
New England upper level trough will drop a bit farther south
Thursday. Wind fields will respond with 0-6km bulk shear about
30 knots and CAPES very impressive from both the NAM and GFS. We
will probably be watching areas near any local frontal convergence,
differential heating and lobes of stronger winds aloft. Storms on
Thursday may develop into loose clusters during the afternoon. We
have followed consensus on the POPS Thursday with mid range values
until we can get a good handle on location and focus. Much of our
area Thursday is in the Marginal Risk for severe storms.

Temperatures tonight and Thursday are a blend of several sets of
guidance, but look considerably close to MOS values. Some patchy
fog is expected overnight mainly in the mountain valleys and over
the I-40 corridor where heavy rain fell today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Wednesday: General troughiness will be in place
through the short term, with a shortwave spinning across southern
Canada and another pushing across the Gulf Coast. The weak cold
front that will be hanging around the area through the near-term
will slide just to our southeast as we push into the short-term,
with weak high pressure developing in the lee of the Appalachians.
Dewpoints should drop several degrees during the afternoon on Friday
with northwest surface flow in place across the mountains leading to
a bit of drying downslope winds, and thus should see a bit of a lull
in convection as a result, with a minimum of CAPE across the area.
However, as the NAM does still want to paint between 500-1000 J/kg
sbCAPE, have kept slight chance pops in through the afternoon.

The Canadian wave rotates slightly northeastward Friday night as the
Gulf Coast wave damps, leaving sort of an isolated vort max and
associated moisture field. The frontal boundary will slide slowly
back to the north and begin merging with an area of moisture
associated with a shortwave coming off the Central Rockies. Should
see a return to diurnal convection Saturday afternoon. Temperatures
will hover a degree or two above seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday: The aforementioned upper trough and
Canadian shortwave continue to lift out of the area through the
weekend, leaving mainly zonal flow across the area, but with this
elongated front stretching from the Plains to the Carolina coast
meandering around the area. The former Gulf Coast shortwave will
also continue to slide northeast toward the area as the Rockies wave
moves east and deepens over the mid-Mississippi Valley. All this
additional moisture should leave to slightly higher than climo pops
across the area for Sunday and Monday afternoons, with likely pops
across the mountains and northern tier (or wherever the front ends
up) and chances elsewhere. Probably not what area residents want to
hear for Independence Day festivities, but we'll continue to refine
the forecast as we move forward.

Uncertainty really increases into the beginning of the work week as
the operational models differ on how to handle that mid-Mississippi
shortwave as it traverses east. ECMWF wants to keep the flow more
zonal with a weaker wave/surface reflection while the GFS has more
of a bonafide trough and surface low/front pushing through by
Tuesday night. Both generally keep the more active weather to our
north across the Ohio Valley. ECMWF is also faster with the
subtropical ridge moving back in to dominate the area toward the
middle of next week. Have trended slightly warmer with afternoon
highs, inching toward the mid-90s by the end of the period, with
lows also remaining above climo, and near-climo pops.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and across the Upstate: SCT TSRA will gradually diminish
in coverage/intensity this evening. Cloud bases have been VFR
and vsby restrictions highly localized, so the most likely threat
will be gusty outflow winds. A stray shower or even TS is possible
overnight, but chances are well below a mentionable level. Winds
will be light/VRB overnight, picking up from ENE in the mrng before
veering to southerly for the bulk of the day. PROB30 chances for
TSRA return in the early afternoon Thu, with similar effects--mainly
wind and perhaps brief MVFR vsby.

At KAVL/KHKY: Except for the outside chance of a shower overnight,
these sites are probably done with convection until Thu aftn. Soils
are wetter, however, since rain fell Wed aftn. In conjunction
with humid conditions overnight, IFR vsby is expected to form
near daybreak.

Outlook: Warm and moist conditions with daily thunderstorm chances
will be on tap Friday and Saturday. Another frontal system may
make a run toward our region Sunday and Monday, which could enhance
thunderstorm activity.

Confidence Table...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High  83%     High  92%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High  82%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High  80%     Med   75%     High 100%
KHKY       High  99%     High  89%     Med   72%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High  93%     High  82%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Staarmann
NEAR TERM...TS/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...Wimberley

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
346 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-302000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
346 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
749 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

SCZ009-300015-
YORK SC-
749 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL YORK COUNTY UNTIL
815 PM EDT...

AT 749 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES EAST OF ROCK HILL...OR NEAR FORT MILL...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FORT MILL.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3493 8087 3494 8091 3502 8094 3503 8090
      3501 8091 3501 8090 3497 8088 3496 8087
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 268DEG 6KT 3498 8089

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
804 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

SCZ010-300030-
ANDERSON SC-
804 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON COUNTY
UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

AT 804 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES NORTHEAST OF ANDERSON...OR 5 MILES WEST OF WILLIAMSTON...MOVING
EAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELTON...WILLIAMSTON...WEST PELZER AND PIEDMONT.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3453 8263 3465 8267 3474 8247 3471 8247
      3470 8246 3468 8246 3467 8247 3466 8247
      3466 8246 3462 8245 3459 8242 3457 8243
      3451 8240
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 259DEG 7KT 3460 8258

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
818 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

SCZ012-300045-
LAURENS SC-
818 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL LAURENS COUNTY UNTIL 845
PM EDT...

AT 818 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES NORTHWEST OF LAURENS...OR NEAR GRAY COURT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAURENS...GRAY COURT AND ORA.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3447 8210 3453 8218 3468 8209 3456 8192
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 231DEG 10KT 3456 8210

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
834 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

SCZ010-300100-
ANDERSON SC-
834 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL ANDERSON COUNTY
UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

AT 833 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES NORTHEAST OF ANDERSON...OR NEAR BELTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5
MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANDERSON...BELTON AND WILLIAMSTON.

DIME SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
RATES UP TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 3453 8265 3466 8258 3462 8245 3460 8243
      3444 8252
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 295DEG 6KT 3455 8255

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
846 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

SCZ006-300115-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-
846 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN GREENVILLE COUNTY
UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

AT 846 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES SOUTH OF GREENVILLE DOWNTOWN...OR 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SIMPSONVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SIMPSONVILLE...FOUNTAIN INN AND FORK SHOALS.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3465 8242 3472 8241 3475 8217 3461 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 276DEG 13KT 3468 8233

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
900 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

SCZ006-012-300130-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-LAURENS SC-
900 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL LAURENS AND
SOUTHEASTERN GREENVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

AT 900 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 18 MILES SOUTH OF GREENVILLE DOWNTOWN TO 6 MILES
WEST OF LAURENS...AND MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAURENS...GRAY COURT...FORK SHOALS AND HICKORY TAVERN.

DIME SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND EXTREME RAINFALL RATES
IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 8225 3454 8193 3446 8220 3461 8244
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 259DEG 6KT 3459 8233 3452 8213

LANE