Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

958 
WWUS52 KGSP 300245
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1045 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

SCC001-007-047-300255-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-160630T0245Z/
GREENWOOD SC-ABBEVILLE SC-ANDERSON SC-
1045 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN GREENWOOD...
NORTHEASTERN ABBEVILLE AND SOUTHEASTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES HAS
EXPIRED...
            
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE ABBEVILLE AND ANDERSON COUNTY BORDER.

LAT...LON 3439 8282 3454 8239 3448 8231 3447 8231
      3445 8228 3440 8224 3437 8218 3433 8217
      3433 8215 3432 8213 3431 8212 3431 8211
      3429 8207 3418 8245
TIME...MOT...LOC 0244Z 287DEG 16KT 3448 8239 3438 8253 3434 8276 

$$

LANE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
802 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure currently in place over the Mid West will drift
slowly eastward toward the area by the end of the week. A slow
moving cold front will stall out south of the area before slowly
pushing northward and moving north of the area by the beginning of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 745 PM...Focus of convective activity has finally shifted
into the Upstate and srn tier of counties in NC, as outflow from
the earlier round over WNC pushes southward through the portion
of the area where instability was not consumed this afternoon. In
light of cyclonic flow persisting aloft, possibly aided by the
right-rear quad of a jet streak centered over the Delmarva, some
elevated parcels could take off overnight. Profiles from the 18z
NAM appear remarkably favorable for elevated convection, if the
weak lift arising from those features proves sufficient. Meso
models mostly continue action through the evening hours but are
generally dry after midnight. Made some slight revisions to the
PoP trends overnight to reflect isolated activity.

The setup Thursday for storms appears still more favorable, even
if the overall pattern is not tremendously different. The deep
New England upper level trough will drop a bit farther south
Thursday. Wind fields will respond with 0-6km bulk shear about
30 knots and CAPES very impressive from both the NAM and GFS. We
will probably be watching areas near any local frontal convergence,
differential heating and lobes of stronger winds aloft. Storms on
Thursday may develop into loose clusters during the afternoon. We
have followed consensus on the POPS Thursday with mid range values
until we can get a good handle on location and focus. Much of our
area Thursday is in the Marginal Risk for severe storms.

Temperatures tonight and Thursday are a blend of several sets of
guidance, but look considerably close to MOS values. Some patchy
fog is expected overnight mainly in the mountain valleys and over
the I-40 corridor where heavy rain fell today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Wednesday: General troughiness will be in place
through the short term, with a shortwave spinning across southern
Canada and another pushing across the Gulf Coast. The weak cold
front that will be hanging around the area through the near-term
will slide just to our southeast as we push into the short-term,
with weak high pressure developing in the lee of the Appalachians.
Dewpoints should drop several degrees during the afternoon on Friday
with northwest surface flow in place across the mountains leading to
a bit of drying downslope winds, and thus should see a bit of a lull
in convection as a result, with a minimum of CAPE across the area.
However, as the NAM does still want to paint between 500-1000 J/kg
sbCAPE, have kept slight chance pops in through the afternoon.

The Canadian wave rotates slightly northeastward Friday night as the
Gulf Coast wave damps, leaving sort of an isolated vort max and
associated moisture field. The frontal boundary will slide slowly
back to the north and begin merging with an area of moisture
associated with a shortwave coming off the Central Rockies. Should
see a return to diurnal convection Saturday afternoon. Temperatures
will hover a degree or two above seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday: The aforementioned upper trough and
Canadian shortwave continue to lift out of the area through the
weekend, leaving mainly zonal flow across the area, but with this
elongated front stretching from the Plains to the Carolina coast
meandering around the area. The former Gulf Coast shortwave will
also continue to slide northeast toward the area as the Rockies wave
moves east and deepens over the mid-Mississippi Valley. All this
additional moisture should leave to slightly higher than climo pops
across the area for Sunday and Monday afternoons, with likely pops
across the mountains and northern tier (or wherever the front ends
up) and chances elsewhere. Probably not what area residents want to
hear for Independence Day festivities, but we'll continue to refine
the forecast as we move forward.

Uncertainty really increases into the beginning of the work week as
the operational models differ on how to handle that mid-Mississippi
shortwave as it traverses east. ECMWF wants to keep the flow more
zonal with a weaker wave/surface reflection while the GFS has more
of a bonafide trough and surface low/front pushing through by
Tuesday night. Both generally keep the more active weather to our
north across the Ohio Valley. ECMWF is also faster with the
subtropical ridge moving back in to dominate the area toward the
middle of next week. Have trended slightly warmer with afternoon
highs, inching toward the mid-90s by the end of the period, with
lows also remaining above climo, and near-climo pops.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and across the Upstate: SCT TSRA will gradually diminish
in coverage/intensity this evening. Cloud bases have been VFR
and vsby restrictions highly localized, so the most likely threat
will be gusty outflow winds. A stray shower or even TS is possible
overnight, but chances are well below a mentionable level. Winds
will be light/VRB overnight, picking up from ENE in the mrng before
veering to southerly for the bulk of the day. PROB30 chances for
TSRA return in the early afternoon Thu, with similar effects--mainly
wind and perhaps brief MVFR vsby.

At KAVL/KHKY: Except for the outside chance of a shower overnight,
these sites are probably done with convection until Thu aftn. Soils
are wetter, however, since rain fell Wed aftn. In conjunction
with humid conditions overnight, IFR vsby is expected to form
near daybreak.

Outlook: Warm and moist conditions with daily thunderstorm chances
will be on tap Friday and Saturday. Another frontal system may
make a run toward our region Sunday and Monday, which could enhance
thunderstorm activity.

Confidence Table...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High  83%     High  92%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High  82%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High  80%     Med   75%     High 100%
KHKY       High  99%     High  89%     Med   72%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High  93%     High  82%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Staarmann
NEAR TERM...TS/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...Wimberley

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
346 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-302000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
346 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
846 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

SCZ006-300115-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-
846 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN GREENVILLE COUNTY
UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

AT 846 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES SOUTH OF GREENVILLE DOWNTOWN...OR 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SIMPSONVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SIMPSONVILLE...FOUNTAIN INN AND FORK SHOALS.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3465 8242 3472 8241 3475 8217 3461 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 276DEG 13KT 3468 8233

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
900 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

SCZ006-012-300130-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-LAURENS SC-
900 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL LAURENS AND
SOUTHEASTERN GREENVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

AT 900 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 18 MILES SOUTH OF GREENVILLE DOWNTOWN TO 6 MILES
WEST OF LAURENS...AND MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAURENS...GRAY COURT...FORK SHOALS AND HICKORY TAVERN.

DIME SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND EXTREME RAINFALL RATES
IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 8225 3454 8193 3446 8220 3461 8244
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 259DEG 6KT 3459 8233 3452 8213

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
913 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 NNE ANDERSON          34.62N 82.61W
06/29/2016                   ANDERSON           SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER RELAYED A REPORT OF A MOVING VAN AND
            TRAVEL TRAILER BLOWN DOWN ON HWY 81 NORTH.

&&

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
913 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

SCZ007-013-300215-
SPARTANBURG SC-UNION SC-
913 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN UNION AND
SOUTHEASTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

AT 912 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE LEADING EDGE OF A CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTH OF
SPARTANBURG TO 16 MILES NORTH OF LAURENS...AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WOODRUFF...JONESVILLE...CROFT STATE PARK AND PAULINE.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3474 8209 3487 8192 3484 8167 3468 8184
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 265DEG 9KT 3484 8188 3474 8202

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
930 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

SCZ010-300200-
ANDERSON SC-
930 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL ANDERSON COUNTY
UNTIL 1000 PM EDT...

AT 930 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES EAST OF ANDERSON...OR NEAR BELTON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HONEA PATH AND BELTON.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.

LAT...LON 3448 8249 3455 8248 3455 8241 3454 8239
      3451 8236 3451 8235 3450 8234 3449 8232
      3448 8232 3444 8238
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 277DEG 8KT 3451 8243

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
941 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

SCZ010-011-300215-
ABBEVILLE SC-ANDERSON SC-
941 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL ABBEVILLE AND
SOUTHEASTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

AT 941 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSON...OR 5 MILES SOUTH OF HOMELAND PARK...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STARR...HOMELAND PARK AND BROADWAY LAKE.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3439 8271 3446 8270 3448 8243 3430 8248
TIME...MOT...LOC 0141Z 283DEG 16KT 3440 8258

LANE