Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
249 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure currently in place over the Mid West will drift
slowly eastward toward the area by the end of the week. A slow
moving cold front will stall out south of the area before slowly
pushing northward and moving north of the area by the beginning of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 2:45 PM EDT... Water vapor imagery shows a potent short wave
dropping quickly through Missouri, and will pass north of our area
during the evening. However, decent horizontal shear with the said
feature, and eventual placement in the right entrance region, will
help shower and thunderstorm activity develop across our forecast
area. Meanwhile, the old front / trough /is becoming more difficult
to locate, however convergent pockets have been noted on latest meso
analysis. This is also a factor for showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. SBCAPE running between 1-2k j/kg with DCAPE
nearing 1k.  As a result a few storms may reach severe criteria into
the evening with wind the primary issue.

Considering the orientation of the jet, surface features and higher
precipitable water values back to our southwest, we believe showers
and isolated thunderstorms will linger through the evening, and
perhaps past midnight. Overall expected coverage still favors
keeping POPS in the chance range.

The setup Thursday for storms appears even more favorable. The deep
New England upper level trough will drop a bit farther south
Thursday. Wind fields will respond with 0-6km bulk shear about 30
knots and CAPES very impressive from both the NAM and GFS. We will
probably be watching areas near any local frontal convergence,
differential heating and lobes of stronger winds aloft. Storms on
Thursday may develop into loose clusters during the afternoon. We
have followed consensus on the POPS Thursday with mid range values
until we can get a good handle on location and focus. Much of our
area Thursday is in the Marginal Risk for severe storms.

Temperatures tonight and Thursday are a blend of several sets of
guide, but look considerably close to MOS values. Finally would
expect some patchy fog in the valley prone areas, and those places
which have rain. However, if cloudiness thins tonight, then more fog
would be expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Wednesday: General troughiness will be in place
through the short term, with a shortwave spinning across southern
Canada and another pushing across the Gulf Coast. The weak cold
front that will be hanging around the area through the near-term
will slide just to our southeast as we push into the short-term,
with weak high pressure developing in the lee of the Appalachians.
Dewpoints should drop several degrees during the afternoon on Friday
with northwest surface flow in place across the mountains leading to
a bit of drying downslope winds, and thus should see a bit of a lull
in convection as a result, with a minimum of CAPE across the area.
However, as the NAM does still want to paint between 500-1000 J/kg
sbCAPE, have kept slight chance pops in through the afternoon.

The Canadian wave rotates slightly northeastward Friday night as the
Gulf Coast wave damps, leaving sort of an isolated vort max and
associated moisture field. The frontal boundary will slide slowly
back to the north and begin merging with an area of moisture
associated with a shortwave coming off the Central Rockies. Should
see a return to diurnal convection Saturday afternoon. Temperatures
will hover a degree or two above seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday: The aforementioned upper trough and
Canadian shortwave continue to lift out of the area through the
weekend, leaving mainly zonal flow across the area, but with this
elongated front stretching from the Plains to the Carolina coast
meandering around the area. The former Gulf Coast shortwave will
also continue to slide northeast toward the area as the Rockies wave
moves east and deepens over the mid-Mississippi Valley. All this
additional moisture should leave to slightly higher than climo pops
across the area for Sunday and Monday afternoons, with likely pops
across the mountains and northern tier (or wherever the front ends
up) and chances elsewhere. Probably not what area residents want to
hear for Independence Day festivities, but we'll continue to refine
the forecast as we move forward.

Uncertainty really increases into the beginning of the work week as
the operational models differ on how to handle that mid-Mississippi
shortwave as it traverses east. ECMWF wants to keep the flow more
zonal with a weaker wave/surface reflection while the GFS has more
of a bonafide trough and surface low/front pushing through by
Tuesday night. Both generally keep the more active weather to our
north across the Ohio Valley. ECMWF is also faster with the
subtropical ridge moving back in to dominate the area toward the
middle of next week. Have trended slightly warmer with afternoon
highs, inching toward the mid-90s by the end of the period, with
lows also remaining above climo, and near-climo pops.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Shower and thunderstorm initiation has begun
in the North Carolina mountains and north of I40. Additional storms
should also develop elsewhere as the atmosphere appears ripe for
scattered convection. We would expect either movement to the
southeast, along the mean flow, and/or further development. For CLT
we have brought a small window of storms to the airfield later this
afternoon, tightening the time-frame, based on latest data and
coordination. Scattered showers may linger into the evening as well,
which is suggested by most of the models. Later in the evening some
patchy fog has also been introduced. We will continue to monitor for
timing issues. Bottom line, VFR with restrictions to ceilings and
visibilities in showers and thunderstorms. Also a few hours of MVFR
fog late tonight.

The remainder of our TAF sites will be facing the same weather
situation, although timing has been adjusted for expected
development and arrival potential. Restrictions again in ceilings
and visibilities. We have added some IFR fog restrictions to AVL
late tonight, thinking they have a better chance to break out of any
cloudiness.

Outlook: Warm and moist conditions with daily thunderstorm chances
will be on tap Friday and Saturday. Another frontal system may make
a run toward our region Sunday and Monday, which could enhance
thunderstorm activity.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  88%     High  87%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High  91%     High  94%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  87%     High  88%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     Med   74%     Med   77%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  94%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  88%     High  91%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Staarmann
NEAR TERM...TS
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...TS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
346 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-302000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
346 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
348 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     HAIL             4 NNE HICKORY           35.79N 81.31W
06/29/2016  E1.75 INCH       CATAWBA            NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEDIA REPORTS GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL AT HWY 127 AND
            CLONINGER MILL RD.

&&

ASTAAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
355 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE CONOVER           35.72N 81.21W
06/29/2016                   CATAWBA            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEDIA RELAYED SPOTTER REPORT OF A LARGE OAK TREE DOWN ON
            HWY 16 AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

&&

ASTAAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
357 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     HAIL             CONOVER                 35.71N 81.22W
06/29/2016  E1.00 INCH       CATAWBA            NC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN CONOVER.

&&

ASTAAR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
359 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

NCZ037-292030-
DAVIE NC-
359 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL DAVIE COUNTY UNTIL 430
PM EDT...

AT 359 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MOCKSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOCKSVILLE...FORK CHURCH AND ADVANCE.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3589 8039 3589 8040 3588 8042 3587 8039
      3584 8039 3585 8042 3583 8043 3583 8046
      3584 8048 3583 8049 3581 8047 3579 8047
      3584 8059 3593 8058 3594 8038
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 287DEG 10KT 3587 8054

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
406 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             3 NNE HICKORY           35.78N 81.31W
06/29/2016  E1.00 INCH       CATAWBA            NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEDIA REPORTS QUARTER SIZED HAIL ON FALLING CREEK RD.

&&

ASTAAR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
411 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

NCZ037-292045-
DAVIE NC-
411 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN DAVIE COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM EDT...

AT 411 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES WEST OF MOCKSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOCKSVILLE AND COOLEEMEE.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3580 8054 3582 8058 3582 8059 3583 8060
      3582 8061 3584 8063 3584 8067 3586 8067
      3586 8069 3585 8070 3585 8071 3591 8070
      3593 8055
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 279DEG 12KT 3587 8068

LANE