Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

760 
WWUS52 KGSP 291946
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
346 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

NCC035-292015-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-160629T2015Z/
CATAWBA NC-
346 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL CATAWBA COUNTY...

AT 345 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST
OF NEWTON...OR OVER CLAREMONT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...PUBLIC. PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THAT
         BROUGHT DOWN TREES WAS REPORTED AS THIS STORM MOVED OVER
         THE EAST SIDE OF HICKORY. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEWTON...CONOVER...CLAREMONT...LOOKOUT SHOALS LAKE...OXFORD...
CATAWBA AND ST. STEPHENS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN IN THE WARNED AREA.
HAIL CAN CAUSE MAJOR PROPERTY DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO VEHICLES. SEEK
SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL
FREE...1...800... 2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK
PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3582 8114 3579 8113 3577 8109 3574 8108
      3561 8113 3566 8124 3574 8126 3581 8122
      3582 8121
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 295DEG 21KT 3571 8116 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

LANE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
249 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure currently in place over the Mid West will drift
slowly eastward toward the area by the end of the week. A slow
moving cold front will stall out south of the area before slowly
pushing northward and moving north of the area by the beginning of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 2:45 PM EDT... Water vapor imagery shows a potent short wave
dropping quickly through Missouri, and will pass north of our area
during the evening. However, decent horizontal shear with the said
feature, and eventual placement in the right entrance region, will
help shower and thunderstorm activity develop across our forecast
area. Meanwhile, the old front / trough /is becoming more difficult
to locate, however convergent pockets have been noted on latest meso
analysis. This is also a factor for showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. SBCAPE running between 1-2k j/kg with DCAPE
nearing 1k.  As a result a few storms may reach severe criteria into
the evening with wind the primary issue.

Considering the orientation of the jet, surface features and higher
precipitable water values back to our southwest, we believe showers
and isolated thunderstorms will linger through the evening, and
perhaps past midnight. Overall expected coverage still favors
keeping POPS in the chance range.

The setup Thursday for storms appears even more favorable. The deep
New England upper level trough will drop a bit farther south
Thursday. Wind fields will respond with 0-6km bulk shear about 30
knots and CAPES very impressive from both the NAM and GFS. We will
probably be watching areas near any local frontal convergence,
differential heating and lobes of stronger winds aloft. Storms on
Thursday may develop into loose clusters during the afternoon. We
have followed consensus on the POPS Thursday with mid range values
until we can get a good handle on location and focus. Much of our
area Thursday is in the Marginal Risk for severe storms.

Temperatures tonight and Thursday are a blend of several sets of
guide, but look considerably close to MOS values. Finally would
expect some patchy fog in the valley prone areas, and those places
which have rain. However, if cloudiness thins tonight, then more fog
would be expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Wednesday: General troughiness will be in place
through the short term, with a shortwave spinning across southern
Canada and another pushing across the Gulf Coast. The weak cold
front that will be hanging around the area through the near-term
will slide just to our southeast as we push into the short-term,
with weak high pressure developing in the lee of the Appalachians.
Dewpoints should drop several degrees during the afternoon on Friday
with northwest surface flow in place across the mountains leading to
a bit of drying downslope winds, and thus should see a bit of a lull
in convection as a result, with a minimum of CAPE across the area.
However, as the NAM does still want to paint between 500-1000 J/kg
sbCAPE, have kept slight chance pops in through the afternoon.

The Canadian wave rotates slightly northeastward Friday night as the
Gulf Coast wave damps, leaving sort of an isolated vort max and
associated moisture field. The frontal boundary will slide slowly
back to the north and begin merging with an area of moisture
associated with a shortwave coming off the Central Rockies. Should
see a return to diurnal convection Saturday afternoon. Temperatures
will hover a degree or two above seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday: The aforementioned upper trough and
Canadian shortwave continue to lift out of the area through the
weekend, leaving mainly zonal flow across the area, but with this
elongated front stretching from the Plains to the Carolina coast
meandering around the area. The former Gulf Coast shortwave will
also continue to slide northeast toward the area as the Rockies wave
moves east and deepens over the mid-Mississippi Valley. All this
additional moisture should leave to slightly higher than climo pops
across the area for Sunday and Monday afternoons, with likely pops
across the mountains and northern tier (or wherever the front ends
up) and chances elsewhere. Probably not what area residents want to
hear for Independence Day festivities, but we'll continue to refine
the forecast as we move forward.

Uncertainty really increases into the beginning of the work week as
the operational models differ on how to handle that mid-Mississippi
shortwave as it traverses east. ECMWF wants to keep the flow more
zonal with a weaker wave/surface reflection while the GFS has more
of a bonafide trough and surface low/front pushing through by
Tuesday night. Both generally keep the more active weather to our
north across the Ohio Valley. ECMWF is also faster with the
subtropical ridge moving back in to dominate the area toward the
middle of next week. Have trended slightly warmer with afternoon
highs, inching toward the mid-90s by the end of the period, with
lows also remaining above climo, and near-climo pops.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Shower and thunderstorm initiation has begun
in the North Carolina mountains and north of I40. Additional storms
should also develop elsewhere as the atmosphere appears ripe for
scattered convection. We would expect either movement to the
southeast, along the mean flow, and/or further development. For CLT
we have brought a small window of storms to the airfield later this
afternoon, tightening the time-frame, based on latest data and
coordination. Scattered showers may linger into the evening as well,
which is suggested by most of the models. Later in the evening some
patchy fog has also been introduced. We will continue to monitor for
timing issues. Bottom line, VFR with restrictions to ceilings and
visibilities in showers and thunderstorms. Also a few hours of MVFR
fog late tonight.

The remainder of our TAF sites will be facing the same weather
situation, although timing has been adjusted for expected
development and arrival potential. Restrictions again in ceilings
and visibilities. We have added some IFR fog restrictions to AVL
late tonight, thinking they have a better chance to break out of any
cloudiness.

Outlook: Warm and moist conditions with daily thunderstorm chances
will be on tap Friday and Saturday. Another frontal system may make
a run toward our region Sunday and Monday, which could enhance
thunderstorm activity.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  88%     High  87%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High  91%     High  94%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  87%     High  88%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     Med   74%     Med   77%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  94%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  88%     High  91%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Staarmann
NEAR TERM...TS
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...TS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
420 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-300830-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
420 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH
CAROLINA. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
234 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

NCZ053-065-507-509-291915-
BUNCOMBE NC-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS NC-HENDERSON NC-POLK MOUNTAINS NC-
234 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT WEST
CENTRAL RUTHERFORD...SOUTHERN BUNCOMBE...NORTHWESTERN POLK AND
NORTHERN HENDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 233 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING 9 MILES NORTH OF HENDERSONVILLE...OR NEAR
FLETCHER...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... HENDERSONVILLE...ARDEN...MILLS
RIVER...FLETCHER...FAIRVIEW IN BUNCOMBE COUNTY...MOUNTAIN
HOME...BILTMORE FOREST...BENT CREEK...LAKE LURE AND ASHEVILLE
AIRPORT.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3551 8213 3535 8223 3531 8227 3538 8270
      3550 8278 3554 8254
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 283DEG 31KT 3546 8245

STAARMANN/NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
300 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

NCZ504-291930-
GREATER BURKE NC-
300 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL BURKE COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM EDT...

AT 300 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MORGANTON...OR NEAR GLEN ALPINE...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MORGANTON...GLEN ALPINE...SOUTH MOUNTAINS STATE PARK AND DREXEL.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3569 8181 3574 8178 3575 8159 3559 8165
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 288DEG 11KT 3570 8175

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
311 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

NCZ035-056-502-291945-
GREATER CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-ALEXANDER NC-
311 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL...CENTRAL
CATAWBA AND SOUTHWESTERN ALEXANDER COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 311 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
HICKORY...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... HICKORY...NEWTON...ST.
STEPHENS...CONOVER...BETHLEHEM...LAKE HICKORY...
CLAREMONT...LONGVIEW...OXFORD AND NORTHLAKES.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LAKE HICKORY IS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS.
MOVE TO SHORE IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3583 8110 3561 8121 3574 8138 3577 8137
      3576 8138 3576 8141 3584 8138
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 291DEG 12KT 3577 8133

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
316 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             MORGANTON               35.74N 81.70W
06/29/2016  E1.50 INCH       BURKE              NC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL CURRENTLY
            FALLING.

&&

ASTAAR