Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

590 
WWUS52 KGSP 292111
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
511 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

NCC097-119-159-292118-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0093.000000T0000Z-160629T2145Z/
MECKLENBURG NC-ROWAN NC-IREDELL NC-
511 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MECKLENBURG...
SOUTHWESTERN ROWAN AND SOUTHEASTERN IREDELL COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3519 8052 3522 8057 3541 8076 3542 8075
      3549 8079 3551 8078 3551 8074 3544 8039
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 303DEG 22KT 3543 8072 

$$

NCC025-292145-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0093.000000T0000Z-160629T2145Z/
CABARRUS NC-
511 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT
FOR CABARRUS COUNTY...

AT 508 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF KANNAPOLIS...OR NEAR CODDLE CREEK RESERVOIR...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

THIS STORM PRODUCED WIND DAMAGE IN THE FORM OF DOWNED TREES IN THE
DAVIDSON AREA. HOWEVER, IT HAS SINCE WEAKENED. IF IT WEAKENS
FURTHER, THE WARNING WILL BE CANCELLED BEFORE 545 PM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DOWNTOWN CONCORD...WEST CONCORD...HARRISBURG...MT PLEASANT...
CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY...CODDLE CREEK RESERVOIR...
MIDLAND AND KANNAPOLIS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORMS IS ALSO PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOODING OF
DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. SMALL STREAMS WILL
RISE RAPIDLY. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER IS FLOWING OVER
THE ROAD.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL
FREE...1...800... 2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK
PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3519 8052 3522 8057 3541 8076 3542 8075
      3549 8079 3551 8078 3551 8074 3544 8039
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 303DEG 22KT 3543 8072 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

LANE

669 
WWUS52 KGSP 292121
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
521 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

NCC025-292130-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0093.000000T0000Z-160629T2145Z/
CABARRUS NC-
521 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CABARRUS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM .

LAT...LON 3519 8052 3522 8057 3541 8076 3542 8075
      3549 8079 3551 8078 3551 8074 3544 8039
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 303DEG 23KT 3539 8064 

$$

LANE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
445 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure currently in place over the Mid West will drift
slowly eastward toward the area by the end of the week. A slow
moving cold front will stall out south of the area before slowly
pushing northward and moving north of the area by the beginning of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 435 PM...Water vapor imagery shows a potent short wave
dropping quickly through Missouri, which will pass north of our
area during the evening. Convergence invof old front (or trough)
is also a factor for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. SBCAPE remains close to 1000 J/kg, with DCAPE nearing
1k. Shear appears to be too weak to permit much organization to the
storms, but strong enough to allow them to persist much longer than
a pulse updraft. Activity is expected to progress southeastward
from its current location from Columbus to Mocksville. Outflow
boundaries are noted, but CAPE is smaller along/south of I-85 and
any new development along them should remain isolated.

Considering the orientation of the jet, surface features and
higher precipitable water values back to our southwest, we believe
isolated showers or t-storms will linger through the evening,
and perhaps past midnight.

The setup Thursday for storms appears even more favorable. The
deep New England upper level trough will drop a bit farther south
Thursday. Wind fields will respond with 0-6km bulk shear about
30 knots and CAPES very impressive from both the NAM and GFS. We
will probably be watching areas near any local frontal convergence,
differential heating and lobes of stronger winds aloft. Storms on
Thursday may develop into loose clusters during the afternoon. We
have followed consensus on the POPS Thursday with mid range values
until we can get a good handle on location and focus. Much of our
area Thursday is in the Marginal Risk for severe storms.

Temperatures tonight and Thursday are a blend of several sets of
guide, but look considerably close to MOS values. Finally would
expect some patchy fog in the valley prone areas, and those places
which have rain. However, if cloudiness thins tonight, then more
fog would be expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Wednesday: General troughiness will be in place
through the short term, with a shortwave spinning across southern
Canada and another pushing across the Gulf Coast. The weak cold
front that will be hanging around the area through the near-term
will slide just to our southeast as we push into the short-term,
with weak high pressure developing in the lee of the Appalachians.
Dewpoints should drop several degrees during the afternoon on Friday
with northwest surface flow in place across the mountains leading to
a bit of drying downslope winds, and thus should see a bit of a lull
in convection as a result, with a minimum of CAPE across the area.
However, as the NAM does still want to paint between 500-1000 J/kg
sbCAPE, have kept slight chance pops in through the afternoon.

The Canadian wave rotates slightly northeastward Friday night as the
Gulf Coast wave damps, leaving sort of an isolated vort max and
associated moisture field. The frontal boundary will slide slowly
back to the north and begin merging with an area of moisture
associated with a shortwave coming off the Central Rockies. Should
see a return to diurnal convection Saturday afternoon. Temperatures
will hover a degree or two above seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday: The aforementioned upper trough and
Canadian shortwave continue to lift out of the area through the
weekend, leaving mainly zonal flow across the area, but with this
elongated front stretching from the Plains to the Carolina coast
meandering around the area. The former Gulf Coast shortwave will
also continue to slide northeast toward the area as the Rockies wave
moves east and deepens over the mid-Mississippi Valley. All this
additional moisture should leave to slightly higher than climo pops
across the area for Sunday and Monday afternoons, with likely pops
across the mountains and northern tier (or wherever the front ends
up) and chances elsewhere. Probably not what area residents want to
hear for Independence Day festivities, but we'll continue to refine
the forecast as we move forward.

Uncertainty really increases into the beginning of the work week as
the operational models differ on how to handle that mid-Mississippi
shortwave as it traverses east. ECMWF wants to keep the flow more
zonal with a weaker wave/surface reflection while the GFS has more
of a bonafide trough and surface low/front pushing through by
Tuesday night. Both generally keep the more active weather to our
north across the Ohio Valley. ECMWF is also faster with the
subtropical ridge moving back in to dominate the area toward the
middle of next week. Have trended slightly warmer with afternoon
highs, inching toward the mid-90s by the end of the period, with
lows also remaining above climo, and near-climo pops.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Deep convection ongoing over WNC but
currently between TAF sites. Outflow boundaries are expected to move
S from these cells and impact KCLT and perhaps KGSP no later than
22z. Scattered showers may redevelop as these boundaries encounter
unstable air over the Upstate, but current mention of TS in TEMPO
looks good. Some activity could linger into the evening as well
due to dynamic lift coming from a jet streak aloft. Later in the
evening some patchy fog has also been introduced. We will continue
to monitor for timing issues. Bottom line, VFR with restrictions
to ceilings and visibilities in showers and thunderstorms. Also
a few hours of MVFR fog late tonight. We have added some IFR fog
restrictions to AVL late tonight, thinking they have a better
chance to break out of any cloudiness.

Outlook: Warm and moist conditions with daily thunderstorm chances
will be on tap Friday and Saturday. Another frontal system may
make a run toward our region Sunday and Monday, which could enhance
thunderstorm activity.

Confidence Table...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     High  89%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High  87%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  87%     High  97%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     Med   65%     High  87%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Staarmann
NEAR TERM...TS/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...TS/Wimberley

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
346 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-302000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
346 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
411 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

NCZ037-292045-
DAVIE NC-
411 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN DAVIE COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM EDT...

AT 411 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES WEST OF MOCKSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOCKSVILLE AND COOLEEMEE.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3580 8054 3582 8058 3582 8059 3583 8060
      3582 8061 3584 8063 3584 8067 3586 8067
      3586 8069 3585 8070 3585 8071 3591 8070
      3593 8055
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 279DEG 12KT 3587 8068

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
423 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     HAIL             2 NE LOVE VALLEY        36.01N 80.96W
06/29/2016  E1.00 INCH       IREDELL            NC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS QUARTER SIZED HAIL FALLING IN NW IREDELL
            COUNTY.

&&

ASTAAR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
432 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

NCZ037-292045-
DAVIE NC-
432 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN DAVIE COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM EDT...

AT 432 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOCKSVILLE...OR 6 MILES EAST OF COOLEEMEE...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FORK CHURCH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3589 8037 3589 8040 3588 8042 3586 8039
      3584 8039 3585 8042 3583 8043 3583 8046
      3584 8048 3583 8049 3583 8047 3580 8047
      3583 8052 3591 8049 3592 8037
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 285DEG 14KT 3585 8044

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
436 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 ENE COLUMBUS          35.26N 82.18W
06/29/2016                   POLK               NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MEDIA RELAYED REPORT FROM COLUMBUS FD OF A TREE DOWN ON
            FOX MOUNTAIN RD.

&&

ASTAAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
442 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0401 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N COLUMBUS            35.32N 82.22W
06/29/2016                   POLK               NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MEDIA RELAYED REPORT FROM MILL SPRING FD OF POWERLINES
            DOWN ON HICKORY NUT RD.

0401 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N COLUMBUS            35.32N 82.22W
06/29/2016                   POLK               NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MEDIA RELAYED REPORT FROM MILL SPRING FD OF POWERLINES
            DOWN ON HICKORY NUT RD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

ASTAAR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
443 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

NCZ504-506-292115-
GREATER BURKE NC-EASTERN MCDOWELL NC-
443 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN BURKE AND EAST
CENTRAL MCDOWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 443 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MORGANTON...OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF GLEN ALPINE...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MORGANTON...GLEN ALPINE...SOUTH MOUNTAINS STATE PARK AND LAKE JAMES.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3573 8156 3557 8163 3557 8167 3558 8169
      3558 8170 3561 8172 3560 8174 3561 8176
      3559 8178 3564 8190 3575 8187
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 288DEG 15KT 3565 8181

LANE