Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1036 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
In the wake of a cold frontal passage, abnormally dry and cool high
pressure will build in over the weekend. The first half of next
week will remain dry with the next chance for rainfall arriving
Wednesday as a cold front pushes across the mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1030 pm...still quiet across the western Carolinas, for now. A
lead shower raced east across ne TN but died when it hit the NC
mountains. The MCS to our N is now coming over the radar horizon.
What remains to be seen is how intact it will be when coming off the
Blue Ridge in VA/Nrn NC. There is a nice plume of relatively high
CAPE in S. Central/Southeast VA into N. Central/Northeast NC. Expect
the MCS to have no trouble moving down this corridor. Closer to
home...not so much. A ridge of relative minimum CAPE extends up into
the NW Piedmont, so at this point, I would expect the MCS to run out
of gas as it approaches from the NW, and will probably die out in
the early morning hours before reaching the CLT metro area. Stay
tuned just in case, though.

An upper low is expected to move southeast toward the Delmarva
Peninsula overnight, then open up as it moves offshore on Friday. A
vort lobe associated with the upper low is expected to cross our
area on Friday. Convective chances increase slightly toward dawn
over the northern zones as the cold front and associated moisture
arrive, but with northwesterly low level downslope flow persisting,
convective chances still appear remain limited, especially east of
the mountains.

Winds are expected to veer from NW to NE on Friday as the front
moves through the area. A second round of cloud cover is expected to
move south over our area in the afternoon as Atlantic moisture
spreads inland to the north of a surface low at the coast...but with
isentropic downglide present, precipitation chances remain marginal.
Temperatures will run above normal in advance of the front, and fall
to near normal in its wake.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thu: Axis of shortwave and cold front will push south of
the area Fri night, and a sprawling high expands into the area in its
wake. Dry and cool northeasterly flow thus will persist thru the
weekend. Precip chances trail off Fri night and remain near zero thru
Sunday. Both max and min temps will be several degrees below normal
both days, with chilly mins Sunday morning, especially over the high
terrain. However, for max temps I don't want to go too cool given
that we will be near peak sun angle over the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As if 115 PM EDT Thursday...Max temperatures will rebound back
toward climo on Monday with llvl ridge axis weakening. With only a
moderate recovery of sfc dwpts expected, the atmosphere will remain
capped. Piedmont lower 90s are slated to return for Tuesday with the
continued upward creep in humidity. Still, return flow ahead of
encroaching baroclinic zone is not shaping up to be robust enough
to introduce thunder chances at this time. During the latter half of
the period the eastern conus trough is progged to amplify. The medium
range model consensus continue to advertise a cold front sagging into
the region on Wednesday. Fcst soundings show a return of moderate/
deep instability, leading to a decent chance tstms although at this
point will not advertise anything higher than climo pop.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere...VFR through the period. Very quiet this
evening with only a few high-based stratocu and a light wind that
varies from SW to NW. Will have to watch convection well to the
north to see if it makes a run at the western Carolinas late this
evening or after midnight. Otherwise, no restrictions are expected
at this time through the overnight hours. Wind is expected to come
around to NW at all sites on Friday morning, perhaps as a remnant
outflow boundary drops south across the region. Few clouds again on
Friday, mostly high-based. Late in the period, a back-door cold
front is expected to drop down from the N with some low level
moisture behind it. This could impact KHKY with low clouds very
late. The back door front will bring wind around to N or NNE and
will organize some shower activity, so the NC TAF sites get a PROB30
mention to handle it, generally after 20Z.

Outlook: Dry high pressure builds in for the weekend with VFR
conditions.

Confidence Table...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High  97%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JAT/PM
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
331 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-501>506-171945-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
331 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
THEY TRY TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THEY MAY SURVIVE UNTIL THEY
REACH THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. A FEW STORMS COULD STILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064-SCZ001-004-
171945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
331 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...MAINLY IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ065-068>072-082-507>510-SCZ002-003-005>014-019-171945-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
331 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...PLUS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

WIMBERLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
916 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

NCZ048>050-170145-
YANCEY NC-MADISON NC-MITCHELL NC-
916 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MADISON...MITCHELL
AND YANCEY COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM EDT...

AT 916 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE LEADING EDGE OF A CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ERWIN TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF GREENEVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 55
MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE...MARS
HILL...BAKERSVILLE...MOUNT MITCHELL STATE PARK...BANDANA...GREEN
MOUNTAIN...CELO...FAUST AND BULADEAN.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

&&

LAT...LON 3614 8214 3610 8208 3601 8204 3595 8204
      3573 8229 3575 8233 3582 8236 3580 8252
      3577 8260 3595 8288 3593 8281 3600 8278
      3606 8264 3603 8259 3597 8261 3595 8256
      3601 8246 3611 8237 3613 8225 3616 8222
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 301DEG 47KT 3625 8262 3604 8285

RWH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
941 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-170215-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS NC-YANCEY NC-AVERY NC-BURKE MOUNTAINS NC-
MITCHELL NC-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS NC-
941 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL CALDWELL...
NORTHWESTERN BURKE...MITCHELL...NORTHEASTERN YANCEY...SOUTHERN AVERY
AND NORTHEASTERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

AT 941 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES NORTH OF BURNSVILLE...OR 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF BAKERSVILLE...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... SPRUCE
PINE...BAKERSVILLE...CROSSNORE...LINVILLE FALLS...TABLE ROCK...B.R.
PARKWAY-LINVILLE FALLS TO GRANDFATHER...NORTH COVE...BANDANA...GREEN
MOUNTAIN AND INGALLS.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

&&

LAT...LON 3612 8214 3611 8213 3611 8208 3594 8165
      3578 8192 3601 8237 3613 8229 3613 8225
      3616 8222
TIME...MOT...LOC 0141Z 298DEG 49KT 3606 8223

RWH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1141 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

NCZ036-037-170445-
DAVIE NC-IREDELL NC-
1141 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
NORTHEASTERN IREDELL AND DAVIE COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM EDT...

AT 1140 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING 5 MILES SOUTH OF JONESVILLE...OR NEAR
SWANCREEK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... MOCKSVILLE...BERMUDA
RUN...COOLEEMEE...HARMONY...SHEFFIELD...UNION GROVE...
FARMINGTON...FORK CHURCH...ADVANCE AND OLIN.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3588 8042 3586 8039 3584 8039 3585 8042
      3583 8043 3583 8049 3581 8047 3579 8048
      3575 8046 3584 8063 3586 8069 3585 8071
      3587 8075 3606 8094 3604 8049 3606 8046
      3601 8042 3599 8042 3596 8038 3590 8037
TIME...MOT...LOC 0340Z 302DEG 29KT 3616 8083

CDG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1221 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

NCZ049-050-170445-
YANCEY NC-MITCHELL NC-
1221 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MITCHELL AND YANCEY
COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM EDT...

AT 1221 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ERWIN...OR 5 MILES WEST OF BANNER HILL...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... SPRUCE PINE...BURNSVILLE...MOUNT
MITCHELL STATE PARK...BANDANA...GREEN MOUNTAIN...CELO...
SWISS...POPLAR AND RAMSEYTOWN.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

LAT...LON 3592 8202 3585 8209 3581 8215 3579 8217
      3578 8216 3572 8222 3572 8224 3594 8249
      3595 8248 3596 8250 3598 8250 3601 8246
      3609 8240 3612 8236 3612 8234
TIME...MOT...LOC 0421Z 309DEG 47KT 3611 8251

LANE