Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

536 
WWUS52 KGSP 171708
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
108 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

SCC023-087-171718-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-160617T1715Z/
UNION SC-CHESTER SC-
108 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN UNION AND
SOUTHWESTERN CHESTER COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 115 PM EDT...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

IF YOU OBSERVED LARGE HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE...PLEASE REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL
FREE... 1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK
PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3465 8163 3474 8154 3461 8129 3457 8134
      3457 8142 3453 8143 3450 8142 3449 8143
      3450 8144 3449 8144 3449 8148 3448 8150
TIME...MOT...LOC 1707Z 310DEG 19KT 3463 8151 

$$

08

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1240 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
In the wake of a cold frontal passage, abnormally dry and cool high
pressure will build in over the weekend. The first half of next
week will remain dry with the next chance for rainfall arriving
Wednesday as a cold front pushes across the mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1640 UTC Update: Pops and QPF were updated to account for convection
in the SC foothills.

1600 UTC Update: Pops were increased slightly in NC to account for
activity approaching the Charlotte area.

1430 UTC Update: Minor changes were made to temperatures and dew
points based on observations and the latest forecast guidance.

1240 UTC Update: Sky cover was adjusted based on satellite imagery,
resulting in a minor reduction over most of the area.

As of 625 am, latest Water Vapor satellite product indicated a well
defined short wave sliding south across the western Carolinas. This
short wave has trigger showers during most of the early morning
hours. However, it appears that the greatest forcing associated with
the feature is moving south of the region. The primary forecast
challenge will be the timing and placement of a back door cold
front, analyzed along and north of I-40. The NAM and GFS indicate
that the front and NW wind shift will occur one to two hours after
sunrise. Forecast soundings and LAMP support a early mention of NW
gusts, remaining through the afternoon, peaking in speeds during the
mid evening hours. In addition, the greatest potential for
convection will arrive during the mid afternoon and will dissipate
during the early evening across the NC zones. I will favor a mention
of SHRA over TSRA across NC. Forecast soundings indicate the
potential for restrictive ceilings developing across the northern
half of the forecast area late this evening and overnight. Dry air
may begin to build across the I-40 during the pre dawn hours
Saturday.

As of 515 am: A look outside and IR satellite indicated that a patch
of mid to high debris clouds was over the foothills and Piedmont.
Recent radar trends indicated on falling values of dBZ with weak
showers approaching the SC Lakelands. I will update the forecast to
increase near term sky and reduce PoPs. For this afternoon, based on
the earlier arrival of the back door cold front, I will update the
forecast to reduce the mention of TSRA this afternoon. I will still
carry schc to chc PoPs, favoring the mention of SHRAs. Temperature,
dewpoint, and wind trends appear on track.

As of 320 AM: Latest sfc analysis indicated low pressure centered
near D.C. with a back door cold front across VA and KY. Near term
models indicate that the boundary will likely continue to slide
south over the forecast area early this morning. Most areas should
see sfc winds begin to veer from the NW one to two hours after
sunrise this morning. Until then, latest CAMs indicate that iso
convection may track from the extreme western NC mtns across the
upper Savannah River Valley during the pre dawn hours.

This afternoon, a positively tilted H5 trough will ripple across the
southeast U.S., pivoting off the Delmarva coast. In the wake of the
morning sfc back door front, gusty NE winds will develop across the
forecast area. These winds will likely remain through the day,
likely peaking in speed this evening as the wedged high surges SW
and yield a 4 to 5 pressure gradient. Pooled moisture passing mid
level support should trigger many small showers and thunderstorms,
beginning around mid day. Model CAPE values decrease through the
afternoon as the gusty NE winds deliver lower dewpoints. I will
advertise schc to chc pops, decreasing coverage this evening. High
temperatures will be challenging to forecast. I will indicate mid
90s across the upper Savannah River valley to low to mid 80s across
the I-40 corridor, near 80 within the mtn valleys.

Tonight, sfc high pressure will continue to ridge across the
foothills and Piedmont, with H5 heights running north to south. This
pattern should support NE winds through the night, with drier air
building from the top down. NAM forecast soundings indicate that a
round of low clouds is possible along and south of the diving dry
air. Otherwise, conditions tonight should remain dry with steady
to marginally gusty winds. Low temperatures are forecast to range
from the mid to upper 60s east to around 60 across the mtns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 325 AM Friday: The last weekend of spring is going to feel a
lot less like summer than what we've been experiencing lately. By
early in the weekend, the region will be squeezed between an
anomalously deep trough/upper low just off the East Coast, and the
subtropical ridge that will dominate much of the central and SW
portion of the country. Resultant low level high pressure will
maintain E/NE low level flow through the weekend, supporting temps
5-10 degrees below climo, as well as unseasonably dry air. Overall,
the weekend weather will be about as spectacular as one can
reasonably expect in the western Carolinas/north Georgia in
mid/late-June.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM Friday, The unseasonably dry/convection-less forecast
will continue into the early part of the medium range. However,
temps are expected to begin warming early in the week, as the
central CONUS upper ridge tried to nudge its way into the picture.
Max temps should return to climo and above by Monday/Tuesday. By
mid-week, height falls are expected across eastern North America, as
a series of strong short waves near the Canadian/U.S. border squeeze
the ridge farther west and deepen a Hudson's Bay upper low and
associated trough. This will allow a frontal zone to sweep across
the area on Wednesday, which will bring the next chance of
convection. However, even this is not a slam dunk, as the global
models suggest moisture may dry up as the boundary crosses the
Appalachians. That being the case, can't see going with pops any
higher than 20-30 percent attm. Guidance is somewhat mixed on the
southward penetration of post-frontal dry air across the eastern
states late next week, but small pops are retained into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT...VFR. Some low to mid VFR cloud coverage is possible later
today into early Saturday as moisture moves inland from a low near
the coast. Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early
evening. Winds will veer from N to NE this afternoon, with gusts
persisting overnight, preventing fog and vsby restrictions from
forming.

Elsewhere...VFR. Low to mid clouds will move over the area this
afternoon, persisting overnight and into early Saturday, especially
over NC, as moisture spreads inland form a coast low. Thunder
chances exist at KHKY, too low to mention at KAVL, KGSP and KGMU,
and not expected at KAND. Winds will veer from N to NW this
afternoon at foothill sites. Winds will veer from NNW to SW at KAVL
on Saturday morning. With some gusts remaining overnight, fog and
vsby restrictions are not expected.

Outlook: Dry high pressure builds in for the weekend with VFR
conditions.

Confidence Table...

            16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z        10-12Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  92%     Med   76%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  83%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  97%     High  86%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  82%     High  97%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  83%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  97%     Med   73%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
618 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-063>065-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ003-
006>009-012>014-181030-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
LAURENS-CHESTER-
618 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY IN AREAS ROUGHLY EAST OF
U.S. HIGHWAY 25. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FROM OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ062-SCZ001-002-004-005-010-011-019-
181030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-MACON-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
GREENWOOD-
618 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

LANE