Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
224 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface boundary will persist across the forecast area tonight
and dissipate overnight. Otherwise, the Bermuda high will keep warm and
moist southerly flow over the region through the week. A weak cold front
will approach the Carolinas late in the week and likely stall out over
the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
220 pm Update: Winds were updated with a blend of the latest NAM
and ADJMAV. Sky cover was adjusted per satellite trends,and pops
adjusted per radar trends.

1020 am Update: Pops amd sky cover were trimmed back early on per
radar trends. Only minor changes were made to temperatures and dew
points.

As of 640 AM: This morning a weak warm front will extend from the
northern Plains, across the mid-Mississippi Valley, and out into
the Atlantic via the Carolinas. As a broad 500mb low begins to
shift northward out of the Deep South, the front is expected to
follow, itself very slowly retreating northward thru Tue morning,
weakening further as low level winds veer in response do the
evolving upper pattern.

Forcing from either the "front" or shortwave is rather subtle, as
one might expect this time of year. The initiation of diurnally
driven activity indeed is expected over the NC Mtns, but nearly
all the WRF-based guidance members develop clusters of convection
in a swath acrs the area near midday, progressing the activity
NE into evening. PoPs have been revised to more closely follow
their trends. 0-6km shear is progged to be no better than 20-25
kt, enough to permit loosely organized multicells. PWAT values
near 2 inches and linear hodographs suggest they will threaten
to produce areas of intense rainfall possibly with some training
of cells. DCAPE values are limited by the high moisture content,
but a damaging wind gust or two would not be out of the question
if a cold pool were able to develop. SPC has highlighted the area
in a marginal risk on Day 1 outlook; we are carrying appropriate
wording in the HWO for today.

Despite the expectation of more cloud cover, the generally southerly
flow should allow max temps to reach if not exceed Sunday's values.
Though the boundary will have retreated enough to take the better
lift off to our north, if not totally dissipated, the presence of
the shortwave and some elevated CAPE implies a slower than typical
decline in PoPs. Mins will be a little above normal tonight. Patchy
fog is expected to return to parts of WNC, particularly where
heavy rain falls this aftn.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 220 PM Monday: The upper level pattern will remain similar
Tuesday night through Wednesday night with a relative lull in
diurnal storms expected. Diurnal storm activity should increase
again especially in the mountains on Thursday as a weak trof
develops across the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures are expected to
be a few degrees above climate normals each period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 220 PM Monday: the medium range fcst picks up at 00z on
Friday with a broad upper trof digging down across the Great Lakes
and upper ridging spread across the western CONUS. As we move into
the weekend, the trof axis slowly passes to our north as the upper
ridge very gradually spreads farther east. At the sfc, a weak cold
front is expected to move across the fcst area on Friday, and
stall out just to our southeast over the weekend. The boundary
gradually washes out by early next week, with some degree of
drying in the low and mid levels. As for the sensible fcst, no
significant changes were needed with diurnal POPs each day and
temperatures remaining a category or so above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Heating and instability will support
convection this afternoon that will diminish this evening. Winds will
favor the SW this afternoon, veering to the NW overnight at all
sites by KCLT, where they veer NE. After dawn winds back to the SW
at all sites but KAVL. Guidance supports daybreak MVFR fog at KHKY
and KAND, and daybreak IFR fog at KAVL, with IFR at other sites. Low
VFR cigs are favored this afternoon, and high VFR after midnight
that erode from the SW.  Low VFR cigs return to KAVL and KHKY by
midday Tuesday.

Outlook: Fairly typical midsummer weather with PM showers and
thunderstorms expected through the end of the week. Fog and low
stratus will be possible in the mountain river valleys and also
in locations that receive heavy rainfall from diurnal thunderstorms.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  94%     High  94%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  94%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
456 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-120900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
456 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY IN THE MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SOME STORMS MAY GROUP INTO CLUSTERS...PRODUCING AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND PERHAPS A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

WIMBERLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
105 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

SCZ006-007-111730-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-SPARTANBURG SC-
105 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT WEST
CENTRAL SPARTANBURG AND EAST CENTRAL GREENVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM
EDT...

AT 104 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING 12 MILES EAST OF GREENVILLE DOWNTOWN...OR NEAR FIVE
FORKS. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FIVE FORKS...REIDVILLE...GSP AIRPORT AND MOORE.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3477 8223 3489 8223 3492 8210 3485 8203
TIME...MOT...LOC 1704Z 256DEG 4KT 3484 8217

SW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
131 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

NCZ064-065-SCZ001>003-111815-
TRANSYLVANIA NC-HENDERSON NC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-
131 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

...GUSTY STORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN TRANSYLVANIA...SOUTHEASTERN
HENDERSON... NORTHEASTERN OCONEE...NORTHWESTERN PICKENS AND
NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 130 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CLUSTER OF STORMS 9
MILES SOUTH OF BREVARD...OR NEAR CAESARS HEAD STATE PARK...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FLAT ROCK...ROSMAN...LAKE JOCASSEE...CAESARS HEAD STATE PARK...DUPONT
STATE FOREST...GORGES STATE PARK...JOCASSEE GORGES...KEOWEE TOXAWAY
STATE PARK...PLEASANT RIDGE STATE PARK AND JONES GAP STATE PARK.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 3508 8301 3533 8235 3530 8233 3529 8235
      3524 8235 3524 8236 3523 8235 3519 8236
      3519 8232 3520 8229 3520 8226 3516 8223
      3490 8289
TIME...MOT...LOC 1730Z 260DEG 12KT 3510 8269

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
203 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

NCZ065-509-510-SCZ003-006-111830-
HENDERSON NC-EASTERN POLK NC-POLK MOUNTAINS NC-GREATER GREENVILLE SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-
203 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT WESTERN
POLK...SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON AND NORTHERN GREENVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL
230 PM EDT...

AT 202 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTH OF
HENDERSONVILLE TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF PICKENS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... TRAVELERS REST...FLAT
ROCK...SLATER-MARIETTA...TRYON...SALUDA...PLEASANT RIDGE STATE
PARK...TIGERVILLE...LAKE ROBINSON...PARIS MOUNTAIN STATE PARK AND
FURMAN UNIVERSITY.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 3502 8223 3490 8250 3491 8250 3492 8252
      3497 8253 3498 8255 3498 8253 3500 8254
      3501 8254 3501 8256 3505 8258 3529 8247
      3540 8221
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 242DEG 29KT 3525 8247 3497 8263

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
215 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

SCZ006-007-111845-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-SPARTANBURG SC-
215 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL SPARTANBURG AND EAST
CENTRAL GREENVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

AT 215 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES EAST OF GREENVILLE DOWNTOWN...OR NEAR GSP AIRPORT...MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPARTANBURG...GREER...MAULDIN...SIMPSONVILLE...FIVE
FORKS...DUNCAN...LYMAN... PACOLET...COWPENS AND WELLFORD.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS. A PERIOD OF VERY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY AS WELL.

LAT...LON 3467 8240 3493 8228 3508 8182 3504 8181
      3503 8179 3493 8176 3493 8174 3491 8171
      3482 8179 3474 8209 3475 8211 3476 8212
      3478 8215 3473 8217
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 253DEG 44KT 3487 8220

CSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
226 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

NCZ065-509-510-SCZ003-006-007-111900-
HENDERSON NC-EASTERN POLK NC-POLK MOUNTAINS NC-GREATER GREENVILLE SC-
SPARTANBURG SC-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-
226 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT POLK...EASTERN HENDERSON...
NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG AND NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL
300 PM EDT...

AT 225 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF
HENDERSONVILLE TO 4 MILES NORTH OF GREENVILLE DOWNTOWN...AND MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... COLUMBUS...GREENVILLE
DOWNTOWN...HENDERSONVILLE...GREER...TAYLORS...BEREA... BOILING
SPRINGS SC...TRAVELERS REST...FLAT ROCK AND LANDRUM.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 3547 8227 3544 8228 3539 8226 3540 8225
      3540 8218 3541 8217 3540 8213 3527 8200
      3526 8197 3519 8197 3518 8194 3505 8195
      3482 8247 3514 8256 3546 8238 3546 8237
      3549 8236 3550 8233
TIME...MOT...LOC 1825Z 247DEG 16KT 3546 8229 3492 8239

CSH