Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
455 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface boundary will persist across the forecast area tonight
and dissipate overnight. Otherwise, the Bermuda high will keep warm and
moist southerly flow over the region through the week. A weak cold front
will approach the Carolinas late in the week and likely stall out over
the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 445 PM EDT Monday:  Continuing to monitor convection
approaching the I77 corridor, as well as over the northern Blue
Ridge.  The strongest of which being to the south across Chester
County SC where cores surged upwards of 70dbz to 25-27kft, however
we still haven't gotten reports from said storm.  This convection
is working it's way eastward at this time, with additional cells
moving across Gaston County NC with further development to the
south expected, likely to affect Charlotte within a half hour.
Capes about the region remain supportive of strong/severe convection
thus am expecting additional SPS/SVR polys through evening.
Tweaked pops/temps/qpf to align with recent ob/radar trends.
Otherwise, no sig changes were made at this time.

Previous Discussion: A weak warm front will extend from the northern
Plains, across the mid-Mississippi Valley, and out into the Atlantic
via the Carolinas. As a broad 500mb low begins to shift northward
out of the Deep South, the front is expected to follow, itself very
slowly retreating northward thru Tue morning, weakening further
as low level winds veer in response do the evolving upper pattern.

Forcing from either the "front" or shortwave is rather subtle, as
one might expect this time of year. The initiation of diurnally
driven activity indeed is expected over the NC Mtns, but nearly
all the WRF-based guidance members develop clusters of convection
in a swath acrs the area near midday, progressing the activity
NE into evening. PoPs have been revised to more closely follow
their trends. 0-6km shear is progged to be no better than 20-25
kt, enough to permit loosely organized multicells. PWAT values
near 2 inches and linear hodographs suggest they will threaten
to produce areas of intense rainfall possibly with some training
of cells. DCAPE values are limited by the high moisture content,
but a damaging wind gust or two would not be out of the question
if a cold pool were able to develop. SPC has highlighted the area
in a marginal risk on Day 1 outlook; we are carrying appropriate
wording in the HWO for today.

Despite the expectation of more cloud cover, the generally southerly
flow should allow max temps to reach if not exceed Sunday's values.
Though the boundary will have retreated enough to take the better
lift off to our north, if not totally dissipated, the presence of
the shortwave and some elevated CAPE implies a slower than typical
decline in PoPs. Mins will be a little above normal tonight. Patchy
fog is expected to return to parts of WNC, particularly where
heavy rain falls this aftn.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM Monday: The mid level pattern will remain similar
Tuesday night through Wednesday night with a relative lull in
diurnal storms expected. Diurnal storm activity should increase
again especially in the mountains on Thursday as a weak trof
develops across the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures are expected to
be a few degrees above climate normals each period.
!--not sent--!

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 210 PM Monday: the medium range fcst picks up at 00z on Friday
with a broad upper trof digging down across the Great Lakes and upper
ridging spread across the western CONUS. As we move into the weekend,
the trof axis slowly passes to our north as the upper ridge very
gradually spreads farther east. At the sfc, a weak cold front is expected
to move across the fcst area on Friday, and stall out just to our southeast
over the weekend. The boundary gradually washes out by early next week,
with some degree of drying in the low and mid levels. As for the sensible
fcst, no significant changes were needed with diurnal POPs each day and
temperatures remaining a category or so above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Heating and instability will support
convection this afternoon that will diminish this evening. Winds will
favor the SW this afternoon, veering to the NW overnight at all
sites by KCLT, where they veer NE. After dawn winds back to the SW
at all sites but KAVL. Guidance supports daybreak MVFR fog at KHKY
and KAND, and daybreak IFR fog at KAVL, with IFR at other sites. Low
VFR cigs are favored this afternoon, and high VFR after midnight
that erode from the SW.  Low VFR cigs return to KAVL and KHKY by
midday Tuesday.

Outlook: Fairly typical midsummer weather with PM showers and
thunderstorms expected through the end of the week. Fog and low
stratus will be possible in the mountain river valleys and also
in locations that receive heavy rainfall from diurnal thunderstorms.

Confidence Table...

            21-03z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  91%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT/Wimberley

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
303 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-121915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
303 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH A WIND GUST TO
NEAR 60 MPH IS POSSIBLE. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
519 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

NCZ069>072-082-112145-
CABARRUS NC-UNION NC-GASTON NC-MECKLENBURG NC-LINCOLN NC-
519 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT MECKLENBURG...
NORTHEASTERN GASTON...UNION...WESTERN CABARRUS AND SOUTHEASTERN
LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 518 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF HUNTERSVILLE TO
10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MONROE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... UPTOWN
CHARLOTTE...HUNTERSVILLE...KANNAPOLIS...DOWNTOWN CONCORD...MONROE...
CENTRAL CHARLOTTE...SOUTH CHARLOTTE...EAST CHARLOTTE...SOUTHWEST
CHARLOTTE AND NORTHEAST CHARLOTTE.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 3490 8031 3481 8054 3482 8073 3491 8079
      3494 8078 3498 8082 3543 8108 3553 8095
      3553 8094 3550 8096 3549 8094 3551 8091
      3550 8060 3525 8046 3518 8050 3516 8044
      3517 8041 3497 8030
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 236DEG 22KT 3540 8097 3487 8067

TDP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
533 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW GREER              34.98N 82.27W
07/11/2016                   GREENVILLE         SC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES AND POWER POLES DOWN ON LAKE CUNNINGHAM ROAD.
            ANOTHER TREE DOWN ON NORTH MCELHANEY ROAD. ANOTHER TREE
            DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 101 AND MORE TREES DOWN NEAR HIGHWAY
            14 TOWARD GOWENSVILLE.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
556 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW CROSS ANCHOR       34.67N 81.90W
07/11/2016                   SPARTANBURG        SC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES DOWN BETWEEN CROSS ANCHOR AND ENOREE.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
602 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S NEWELL              35.26N 80.74W
07/11/2016                   MECKLENBURG        NC   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREE DOWN ON THE ROAD.

&&

TPALMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
611 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             5 S HARRISBURG          35.26N 80.66W
07/11/2016  E1.00 INCH       MECKLENBURG        NC   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM SAM DEE ROAD OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
621 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S NEWELL              35.25N 80.74W
07/11/2016                   MECKLENBURG        NC   SOCIAL MEDIA

            SEVERAL REPORTS VIA SOCIAL MEDIA OF TREES DOWN ON THE
            EAST SIDE OF CHARLOTTE.

&&

TPALMER