Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
224 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface boundary will persist across the forecast area tonight
and dissipate overnight. Otherwise, the Bermuda high will keep warm and
moist southerly flow over the region through the week. A weak cold front
will approach the Carolinas late in the week and likely stall out over
the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
220 pm Update: Winds were updated with a blend of the latest NAM
and ADJMAV. Sky cover was adjusted per satellite trends,and pops
adjusted per radar trends.

1020 am Update: Pops amd sky cover were trimmed back early on per
radar trends. Only minor changes were made to temperatures and dew
points.

As of 640 AM: This morning a weak warm front will extend from the
northern Plains, across the mid-Mississippi Valley, and out into
the Atlantic via the Carolinas. As a broad 500mb low begins to
shift northward out of the Deep South, the front is expected to
follow, itself very slowly retreating northward thru Tue morning,
weakening further as low level winds veer in response do the
evolving upper pattern.

Forcing from either the "front" or shortwave is rather subtle, as
one might expect this time of year. The initiation of diurnally
driven activity indeed is expected over the NC Mtns, but nearly
all the WRF-based guidance members develop clusters of convection
in a swath acrs the area near midday, progressing the activity
NE into evening. PoPs have been revised to more closely follow
their trends. 0-6km shear is progged to be no better than 20-25
kt, enough to permit loosely organized multicells. PWAT values
near 2 inches and linear hodographs suggest they will threaten
to produce areas of intense rainfall possibly with some training
of cells. DCAPE values are limited by the high moisture content,
but a damaging wind gust or two would not be out of the question
if a cold pool were able to develop. SPC has highlighted the area
in a marginal risk on Day 1 outlook; we are carrying appropriate
wording in the HWO for today.

Despite the expectation of more cloud cover, the generally southerly
flow should allow max temps to reach if not exceed Sunday's values.
Though the boundary will have retreated enough to take the better
lift off to our north, if not totally dissipated, the presence of
the shortwave and some elevated CAPE implies a slower than typical
decline in PoPs. Mins will be a little above normal tonight. Patchy
fog is expected to return to parts of WNC, particularly where
heavy rain falls this aftn.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 220 PM Monday: The upper level pattern will remain similar
Tuesday night through Wednesday night with a relative lull in
diurnal storms expected. Diurnal storm activity should increase
again especially in the mountains on Thursday as a weak trof
develops across the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures are expected to
be a few degrees above climate normals each period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 220 PM Monday: the medium range fcst picks up at 00z on
Friday with a broad upper trof digging down across the Great Lakes
and upper ridging spread across the western CONUS. As we move into
the weekend, the trof axis slowly passes to our north as the upper
ridge very gradually spreads farther east. At the sfc, a weak cold
front is expected to move across the fcst area on Friday, and
stall out just to our southeast over the weekend. The boundary
gradually washes out by early next week, with some degree of
drying in the low and mid levels. As for the sensible fcst, no
significant changes were needed with diurnal POPs each day and
temperatures remaining a category or so above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Heating and instability will support
convection this afternoon that will diminish this evening. Winds will
favor the SW this afternoon, veering to the NW overnight at all
sites by KCLT, where they veer NE. After dawn winds back to the SW
at all sites but KAVL. Guidance supports daybreak MVFR fog at KHKY
and KAND, and daybreak IFR fog at KAVL, with IFR at other sites. Low
VFR cigs are favored this afternoon, and high VFR after midnight
that erode from the SW.  Low VFR cigs return to KAVL and KHKY by
midday Tuesday.

Outlook: Fairly typical midsummer weather with PM showers and
thunderstorms expected through the end of the week. Fog and low
stratus will be possible in the mountain river valleys and also
in locations that receive heavy rainfall from diurnal thunderstorms.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  94%     High  94%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  94%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
303 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-121915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
303 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH A WIND GUST TO
NEAR 60 MPH IS POSSIBLE. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
258 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

SCZ008-009-013-111930-
CHEROKEE SC-UNION SC-YORK SC-
258 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN UNION...
SOUTHWESTERN YORK AND SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM
EDT...

AT 258 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES NORTHEAST OF UNION...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOCKHART...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HICKORY GROVE...SMYRNA...LOCKHART...SHARON...ADAMSBURG...SARATT AND
BULLOCK CREEK.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3490 8168 3506 8141 3482 8127 3482 8149
      3481 8148 3481 8147 3477 8145 3474 8158
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 244DEG 12KT 3486 8155

TDP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
302 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

SCZ006-007-012-111930-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-SPARTANBURG SC-LAURENS SC-
302 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LAURENS...
SOUTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG AND EAST CENTRAL GREENVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL
330 PM EDT...

AT 302 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES SOUTHEAST OF GREENVILLE DOWNTOWN...OR NEAR MAULDIN...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... GREENVILLE DOWNTOWN...GREENVILLE
EASTSIDE...MAULDIN...SIMPSONVILLE...FIVE FORKS...FOUNTAIN
INN...WOODRUFF...DUNCAN...LYMAN AND WELLFORD.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3467 8230 3484 8238 3499 8209 3474 8197
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 247DEG 13KT 3479 8226

TDP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
321 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

SCZ013-111945-
UNION SC-
321 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL UNION COUNTY UNTIL 345
PM EDT...

AT 321 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES WEST OF UNION...OR 4 MILES WEST OF BUFFALO...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... UNION...MONARCH
MILL...BUFFALO...JONESVILLE...ADAMSBURG...CROSS KEYS... SEDALIA AND
SANTUC.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3466 8184 3469 8182 3481 8179 3488 8164
      3488 8161 3489 8159 3487 8155 3466 8146
      3460 8181
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 250DEG 14KT 3472 8176

TDP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
338 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

SCZ014-112015-
CHESTER SC-
338 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN CHESTER COUNTY UNTIL 415
PM EDT...

AT 338 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES WEST OF CHESTER...OR 8 MILES WEST OF CHESTER STATE
PARK...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHESTER...CHESTER STATE PARK...LEEDS...CORNWELL AND BLACKSTOCK.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3457 8126 3457 8130 3459 8142 3464 8142
      3466 8145 3468 8145 3472 8146 3479 8144
      3479 8108 3456 8112
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 279DEG 15KT 3469 8138

TDP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
339 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

NCZ505-506-112015-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS NC-EASTERN MCDOWELL NC-
339 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT MCDOWELL COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM
EDT...

AT 339 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES WEST OF MARION...OR NEAR OLD FORT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... MARION...OLD FORT...LAKE
JAMES...LAKE JAMES STATE PARK...SUGAR HILL...
NEBO...DYSARTSVILLE...GLENWOOD...PLEASANT GARDENS AND FERO.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3573 8189 3555 8186 3555 8201 3554 8219
      3572 8222 3573 8220 3579 8197
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 261DEG 11KT 3566 8212

TDP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
343 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

SCZ007-013-112015-
SPARTANBURG SC-UNION SC-
343 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN UNION AND
SOUTHEASTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 343 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14
MILES NORTH OF LAURENS...OR 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WOODRUFF...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
UNION...WOODRUFF...BUFFALO...CROFT STATE
PARK...PACOLET...ENOREE...CROSS ANCHOR...PAULINE AND CROSS KEYS.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3465 8195 3465 8197 3466 8198 3466 8200
      3469 8206 3475 8209 3493 8177 3468 8162
      3461 8191
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 243DEG 17KT 3470 8196

TDP