Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
255 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING THEN THE SHOWERS WILL END BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS IT BECOMES COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
BRINGING WITH IT SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WITH MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM WESTERN
CANADA BRINGS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE AREA BY LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

WE ARE TRACKING STRONG STORMS THAT WILL CROSS THIS AREA FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT OUR NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BE THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT THAT MAY WELL
BRING SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY DURING THE DAY.

THANKS TO EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 60 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE NEAR 500 J/KG...IN
COMBINATION WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION TO A 120 KNOT JET AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE... THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION WE
WILL SEE A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CROSS THE AREA MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST PART IT WOULD SEEM THE STORMS SHOULD BE
SUB-SEVERE BUT A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE DUE
TO THE GOOD DYNAMICS ALREADY IN PLACE.

ONCE THAT COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE BUT THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS GONE SO I
DO NOT SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURE.

ON FRIDAY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD BUT DEEP
MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO I HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO COVER THAT
MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

THE SNOW EVENT ON SATURDAY IS THANKS TO A 140 KNOT JET EXIT
REGION ASSOICATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT COMING THROUGH DURING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS DEEP MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO
HELP THE CAUSE FOR SNOW. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING AIR THAT IS
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. IT SHOULD SNOW HARD ENOUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN CWA TO KEEP AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WHILE IT
IS SNOWING (NOW SHOWN IN OUR GRIDS TOO WELL) SO I WOULD EXPECT 2
TO 4 INCHES IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS... MOSTLY ON GRASSY
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE MUCH BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE MODERATING A BIT BY WEDNESDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND SNOW NORTH OF I-96. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE TWO TO FIVE INCH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE OVER OUR
NORTHERN FCST AREA NORTH OF I-96.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO PRODUCE FAIR WX LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MORE
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL LIKELY MOVE IN BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

A MIX OF MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOW CIGS AND RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON AT KMKG DUE TO RAIN AND FOG. IT
WILL REMAIN WINDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SSW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS
AND A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

PRIMARILY IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT DUE TO LOW CIGS
AND SOME LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST
AND WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MAINLY MVFR
DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AS CIGS SLOWLY
IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

I WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING AS IS. WE WILL LIKELY
NEED A GALE WARING ON SATURDAY FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT COMING
THROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR
CROTON DAM. MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR
CROTON IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CREST AROUN 9.3 FEET ON SATURDAY.
THIS FORECAST MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS IN THE
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. AT 9.0 FEET... EXPECT MINOR FLOODING OF
COTTAGES AND HOMES DOWNSTREAM OF NEWAYGO ON RIVERVIEW DRIVE IN
BRIDGETON TOWNSHIP AND PEPPERIDGE IN ASHLAND TOWNSHIP.

OTHERWISE... NUMEROUS RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO RIVERS OUT OF THEIR BANKS. MINOR FLOODING
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE MUSKEGON RIVER BASIN
HAS RECEIVED 1.00-1.75 INCHES OF RAIN THUS FAR SINCE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL BASIN AVERAGE OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG STORMS INTO THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM

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