Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
255 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING THEN THE SHOWERS WILL END BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS IT BECOMES COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
BRINGING WITH IT SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WITH MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM WESTERN
CANADA BRINGS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE AREA BY LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

WE ARE TRACKING STRONG STORMS THAT WILL CROSS THIS AREA FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT OUR NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BE THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT THAT MAY WELL
BRING SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY DURING THE DAY.

THANKS TO EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 60 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE NEAR 500 J/KG...IN
COMBINATION WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION TO A 120 KNOT JET AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE... THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION WE
WILL SEE A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CROSS THE AREA MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST PART IT WOULD SEEM THE STORMS SHOULD BE
SUB-SEVERE BUT A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE DUE
TO THE GOOD DYNAMICS ALREADY IN PLACE.

ONCE THAT COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE BUT THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS GONE SO I
DO NOT SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURE.

ON FRIDAY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD BUT DEEP
MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO I HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO COVER THAT
MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

THE SNOW EVENT ON SATURDAY IS THANKS TO A 140 KNOT JET EXIT
REGION ASSOICATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT COMING THROUGH DURING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS DEEP MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO
HELP THE CAUSE FOR SNOW. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING AIR THAT IS
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. IT SHOULD SNOW HARD ENOUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN CWA TO KEEP AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WHILE IT
IS SNOWING (NOW SHOWN IN OUR GRIDS TOO WELL) SO I WOULD EXPECT 2
TO 4 INCHES IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS... MOSTLY ON GRASSY
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE MUCH BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE MODERATING A BIT BY WEDNESDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND SNOW NORTH OF I-96. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE TWO TO FIVE INCH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE OVER OUR
NORTHERN FCST AREA NORTH OF I-96.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO PRODUCE FAIR WX LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MORE
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL LIKELY MOVE IN BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

A MIX OF MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOW CIGS AND RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON AT KMKG DUE TO RAIN AND FOG. IT
WILL REMAIN WINDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SSW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS
AND A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

PRIMARILY IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT DUE TO LOW CIGS
AND SOME LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST
AND WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MAINLY MVFR
DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AS CIGS SLOWLY
IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

I WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING AS IS. WE WILL LIKELY
NEED A GALE WARING ON SATURDAY FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT COMING
THROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR
CROTON DAM. MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR
CROTON IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CREST AROUN 9.3 FEET ON SATURDAY.
THIS FORECAST MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS IN THE
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. AT 9.0 FEET... EXPECT MINOR FLOODING OF
COTTAGES AND HOMES DOWNSTREAM OF NEWAYGO ON RIVERVIEW DRIVE IN
BRIDGETON TOWNSHIP AND PEPPERIDGE IN ASHLAND TOWNSHIP.

OTHERWISE... NUMEROUS RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO RIVERS OUT OF THEIR BANKS. MINOR FLOODING
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE MUSKEGON RIVER BASIN
HAS RECEIVED 1.00-1.75 INCHES OF RAIN THUS FAR SINCE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL BASIN AVERAGE OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG STORMS INTO THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
930 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-011045-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
930 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN NOON AND ABOUT
800PM. IT IS NOT OUT THE QUESTION THAT SOME OF THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND OR HAIL TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96 DURING THIS TIME. MORE
LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH HAIL TO AROUND
A HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH. CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
TODAYS STORMS AS WELL. STORMS TODAY WILL RACE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AT 40 TO 50 MPH.

LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TODAY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG
SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS THAT ALREADY HAVE ELEVATED LEVELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THIS WEEKEND AT LEAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS UNLIKELY TODAY.

LMZ844>849-011045-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
930 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALLER CRAFT BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT ON LAKE MICHIGAN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
LAKE FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS WILL CONTAIN
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES AND POTENTIALLY SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS UNLIKELY TODAY.

DUKE WDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1219 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1214 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SE BELMONT            43.06N 85.57W
03/31/2016  M1.26 INCH       KENT               MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EBW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
136 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

MIZ037-038-043-044-311830-
MASON MI-LAKE MI-OCEANA MI-NEWAYGO MI-
136 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 135 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES WEST OF HART...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 40 MPH WITH SOME DOWNED TREE
LIMBS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HART...                BALDWIN...             SCOTTVILLE...
HESPERIA...            LUTHER...              FOUNTAIN...
FREE SOIL...           FREESOIL...            WEARE...
CHASE...               ELBRIDGE...            COLFAX...
NEW ERA...             ROTHBURY...            CUSTER...
WALKERVILLE...         CRYSTAL VALLEY...      WOODVILLE...
WOODLAND PARK...       BRISTOL...

LAT...LON 4417 8557 4416 8556 4369 8556 4347 8646
      4362 8654 4367 8653 4375 8646 4382 8643
      4397 8646 4406 8651 4412 8643 4418 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 1735Z 240DEG 57KT 4368 8653

HOVING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
211 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0202 PM     HAIL             CUSTER                  43.95N 86.22W
03/31/2016  E0.25 INCH       MASON              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
305 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

MIZ043-044-050-312000-
MUSKEGON MI-OCEANA MI-NEWAYGO MI-
305 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 303 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MONTAGUE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

INTENSE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE
OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS AT LEAST
50 MPH WITH DOWNED TREE LIMBS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MUSKEGON...            NEWAYGO...             WHITE CLOUD...
MUSKEGON HEIGHTS...    FREMONT...             ROOSEVELT PARK...
NORTH MUSKEGON...      WHITEHALL...           MONTAGUE...
LAKEWOOD CLUB...       HESPERIA...            NORTON SHORES...
DALTON...              HOLTON...              BRIDGETON...
ELBRIDGE...            COLFAX...              NEW ERA...
ROTHBURY...            WALKERVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4382 8607 4382 8556 4350 8556 4318 8631
      4332 8640 4359 8653
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 234DEG 49KT 4331 8653

HOVING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
324 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

MIZ045-046-051-312030-
MECOSTA MI-MONTCALM MI-ISABELLA MI-
324 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 323 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR HOWARD CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS AT LEAST 40 MPH WITH SOME DOWNED TREE
LIMBS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOUNT PLEASANT...      CLARE...               HOWARD CITY...
EDMORE...              LAKEVIEW...            MORLEY...
MECOSTA...             ROSEBUSH...            BARRYTON...
VILLAGE OF LAKE ISAB...
CANADIAN LAKES...      SAND LAKE...
PIERSON...             WINN...                WEIDMAN...
SIX LAKES...           BLANCHARD...           CORAL...
DELWIN...              AMBLE...

LAT...LON 4329 8532 4329 8556 4342 8556 4381 8515
      4381 8461 4361 8461
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 226DEG 44KT 4340 8539

HOVING

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