Severe Thunderstorm Warning 432, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1125 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 554 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Difficult forecast for tonight as near term models...especially
CAM's are far too aggressive as with respect to convective
initiation as convective coverage has been very isolated. Seeing
some attempts at towering cu along old outflow...but so far it
does not appear that thunderstorm development will occur in the
immediate near term. A few impressive storms in southeast Wyoming
in advance of weak h5 trough. Not confident to remove thunder
chances from the evening...but have dialed back coverage through
3z quite a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 147 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

The short term forecast focus will be on the possibility of
thunderstorms across the central high plains region from late this
afternoon through tonight and again Thursday afternoon into Thursday
night.

The Central High Plains region remains under an increasingly
northwest flow aloft with the upper level high pressure area over
the southern Great Basin region and a trough over the Mississippi
valley region deepening in response to a series of short wave trough
moving through the upper flow into the central plains.  These waves
will continue to track through the forecast area both this evening
and again on Thursday afternoon and evening.  This is favorable
timing for thunderstorm enhancement this evening and tomorrow
afternoon.  While the possibility for isolated severe thunderstorms
exists this evening, there is a stronger possibility of severe
storms on Thursday as there will be better moisture and shear
available for storms to work with. Supercell thunderstorms are
possible late in the day, likely continuing into Thursday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 147 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

The extended period will start with a ridge in the western CONUS and
a trough in the eastern CONUS. This will bring an upper level
northwest flow over the CWA Thursday evening through late Friday
night/early Saturday morning. Come Saturday, the trough will begin
to push east and the ridge will move over the CWA.

Thursday night will have the greatest potential for storms across
the region. There is a mid-level shortwave that will move over the
CWA from the late afternoon through the overnight hours which will
help with lift. That, in combination with favorable instabilty
factors of: MUCAPEs 2500-3500 J/kg, effective bulk shear around 55-
65 kts, dew points around 55-65 degrees Fahrenheit and lapse rates
at 7+ C/km; will create a favorable environment for storms to
develop. Large hail and damaging winds are possible where supercells
develop; an isolated tornado or two can not be ruled out.
Based off the current model runs the GFS and NAM differ slightly on
location of the strongest storm potential, yet timing are very
similar. The NAM has the majority of the CWA under a higher
potential for severe storms, whereas the GFS has the severe
potential more in the eastern half of the CWA. This differs slightly
from the 06Z run of the GFS; so time will tell where the strongest
storms will develop.

Friday, another round of storms is possible but does not look as
severe of a threat as Thursday. The trough begins to push further
south and east, so the strongest storm potential looks to be south
and southeast of the CWA. The current NAM model run shows the region
to be dry Friday but the GFS and European have precipitation
potential in the late afternoon into the evening, with the GFS
keeping PoP chances into the overnight hours. Instability factors do
not look impressive, with MUCAPEs only abound 1000-2000 J/kg and
weak lapse rates and effective bulk shear.

Saturday through Wednesday, look to be fairly similar in upper level
pattern and precipitation potential. The region will be impacted by
a ridge but each day, excluding Sunday which is expected to be dry,
mid-level shortwaves move through the general flow and could
potentially help initiate some isolated storms. Moisture from the
Gulf of California and Arizona will potentially make its way up into
the region each afternoon and evening, which will be the main source
of moisture. As the end of the extended period approaches, the GFS
and European start to differ slightly on upper level pattern. The
GFS has the region still impacted by a more amplified ridge with a
trough skimming the northwest states and the European has more of a
zonal flow over the region with the trough skimming the north
central states. Overall, the model differences don't seem to be
making a major impact on the CWA at this time, but will be keeping
an eye on it as the middle of next week approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Scattered thunderstorms overnight appear to have moved south of
the terminals for now...but more storms are developing in the
Nebraska panhandle and moving southwest and may impact the area
again before sunrise. There will also be some patch fog developing
around sunrise. For Thursday...thunderstorm chances will continue
to be the main aviation concern. There could be two rounds... one
in the morning and stronger storms in the afternoon. Exact timing
of the impacts is difficult so will carry VCTS during the times
which have the best chances for a thunderstorm. Some severe storms
will be possible in the afternoon with gusty winds and large hail.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...024

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1041 AM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-281645-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1041 AM MDT WED JUL 27 2016 /1141 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STORMS WILL BECOME SCATTERED AND
INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THEY SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHEAST COLORADO.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME NUMEROUS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MANY OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
114 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

KSZ042-280700-
WICHITA KS-
114 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN WICHITA COUNTY UNTIL 200
AM CDT...

AT 114 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES NORTHWEST OF MODOC...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARIENTHAL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3861 10139 3866 10113 3827 10112 3826 10114
TIME...MOT...LOC 0614Z 314DEG 31KT 3856 10122

JN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1258 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

COZ090-NEZ079-280800-
YUMA COUNTY CO-DUNDY NE-
1258 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN YUMA AND
NORTHWESTERN DUNDY COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM MDT...

AT 1257 AM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTH OF AMHERST TO NEAR FLEMING.
MOVEMENT WAS SOUTH AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALVIN...WAUNETA AND CLARKVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 256 AND 269.

LAT...LON 4044 10205 4035 10205 4035 10187 4031 10185
      4020 10253 4044 10267
TIME...MOT...LOC 0657Z 347DEG 32KT 4074 10214 4067 10280

JN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
202 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

KSZ016-280715-
GRAHAM KS-
202 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRAHAM COUNTY UNTIL
215 AM CDT...

AT 202 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES SOUTH OF BOGUE...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILL CITY...MOVING
SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HILL CITY...BOGUE AND NICODEMUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9987 3937 9990 3939 9960 3913 9961
TIME...MOT...LOC 0702Z 342DEG 20KT 3927 9970

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
229 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

KSZ002-280745-
RAWLINS KS-
229 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN RAWLINS COUNTY UNTIL
245 AM CDT...

AT 229 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MCDONALD...OR 13 MILES WEST OF ATWOOD...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MCDONALD AND BEARDSLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3974 10107 3973 10140 3978 10141 3991 10141
      3992 10122
TIME...MOT...LOC 0729Z 342DEG 20KT 3979 10130

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
140 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

KSZ001-NEZ079-280800-
CHEYENNE KS-DUNDY NE-
140 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN DUNDY COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA UNTIL 200 AM MDT/300 AM CDT/...

AT 140 AM MDT/240 AM CDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF BENKELMAN...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BENKELMAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4006 10165 4007 10143 3991 10142 3991 10161
TIME...MOT...LOC 0740Z 342DEG 20KT 3997 10152

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
144 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

COZ090-NEZ079-280800-
YUMA COUNTY CO-DUNDY NE-
144 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN YUMA AND
NORTHWESTERN DUNDY COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM MDT...

AT 144 AM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17
MILES NORTH OF WRAY...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ECKLEY...ALVIN...WAUNETA AND CLARKVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 247 AND 269.

LAT...LON 4044 10205 4035 10205 4035 10185 4024 10178
      4004 10248 4042 10269 4044 10257
TIME...MOT...LOC 0744Z 342DEG 20KT 4033 10220

JRM