Severe Thunderstorm Warning 412, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
618 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 554 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Difficult forecast for tonight as near term models...especially
CAM's are far too aggressive as with respect to convective
initiation as convective coverage has been very isolated. Seeing
some attempts at towering cu along old outflow...but so far it
does not appear that thunderstorm development will occur in the
immediate near term. A few impressive storms in southeast Wyoming
in advance of weak h5 trough. Not confident to remove thunder
chances from the evening...but have dialed back coverage through
3z quite a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 147 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

The short term forecast focus will be on the possibility of
thunderstorms across the central high plains region from late this
afternoon through tonight and again Thursday afternoon into Thursday
night.

The Central High Plains region remains under an increasingly
northwest flow aloft with the upper level high pressure area over
the southern Great Basin region and a trough over the Mississippi
valley region deepening in response to a series of short wave trough
moving through the upper flow into the central plains.  These waves
will continue to track through the forecast area both this evening
and again on Thursday afternoon and evening.  This is favorable
timing for thunderstorm enhancement this evening and tomorrow
afternoon.  While the possibility for isolated severe thunderstorms
exists this evening, there is a stronger possibility of severe
storms on Thursday as there will be better moisture and shear
available for storms to work with. Supercell thunderstorms are
possible late in the day, likely continuing into Thursday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 147 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

The extended period will start with a ridge in the western CONUS and
a trough in the eastern CONUS. This will bring an upper level
northwest flow over the CWA Thursday evening through late Friday
night/early Saturday morning. Come Saturday, the trough will begin
to push east and the ridge will move over the CWA.

Thursday night will have the greatest potential for storms across
the region. There is a mid-level shortwave that will move over the
CWA from the late afternoon through the overnight hours which will
help with lift. That, in combination with favorable instabilty
factors of: MUCAPEs 2500-3500 J/kg, effective bulk shear around 55-
65 kts, dew points around 55-65 degrees Fahrenheit and lapse rates
at 7+ C/km; will create a favorable environment for storms to
develop. Large hail and damaging winds are possible where supercells
develop; an isolated tornado or two can not be ruled out.
Based off the current model runs the GFS and NAM differ slightly on
location of the strongest storm potential, yet timing are very
similar. The NAM has the majority of the CWA under a higher
potential for severe storms, whereas the GFS has the severe
potential more in the eastern half of the CWA. This differs slightly
from the 06Z run of the GFS; so time will tell where the strongest
storms will develop.

Friday, another round of storms is possible but does not look as
severe of a threat as Thursday. The trough begins to push further
south and east, so the strongest storm potential looks to be south
and southeast of the CWA. The current NAM model run shows the region
to be dry Friday but the GFS and European have precipitation
potential in the late afternoon into the evening, with the GFS
keeping PoP chances into the overnight hours. Instability factors do
not look impressive, with MUCAPEs only abound 1000-2000 J/kg and
weak lapse rates and effective bulk shear.

Saturday through Wednesday, look to be fairly similar in upper level
pattern and precipitation potential. The region will be impacted by
a ridge but each day, excluding Sunday which is expected to be dry,
mid-level shortwaves move through the general flow and could
potentially help initiate some isolated storms. Moisture from the
Gulf of California and Arizona will potentially make its way up into
the region each afternoon and evening, which will be the main source
of moisture. As the end of the extended period approaches, the GFS
and European start to differ slightly on upper level pattern. The
GFS has the region still impacted by a more amplified ridge with a
trough skimming the northwest states and the European has more of a
zonal flow over the region with the trough skimming the north
central states. Overall, the model differences don't seem to be
making a major impact on the CWA at this time, but will be keeping
an eye on it as the middle of next week approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 532 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Low confidence forecast expected tonight as near term guidance
greatly overdoing thunderstorm coverage...but with persistent
outflow boundary moving north through the area cannot rule out a
storm or two firing along it. Most likely scenario will be for vfr
conditions to prevail through the night. Some morning showers are
possible...but with high cloud bases do not expect a big impact.
More significant...organized convection will develop across the
area on Thursday. This will likely have an impact on
terminals...but will not expected to occur until around 00z.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...JRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1041 AM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-281645-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1041 AM MDT WED JUL 27 2016 /1141 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STORMS WILL BECOME SCATTERED AND
INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THEY SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHEAST COLORADO.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME NUMEROUS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MANY OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
917 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

COZ090-280330-
YUMA COUNTY CO-
917 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN YUMA COUNTY UNTIL
930 PM MDT...

AT 917 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES SOUTH OF HOLYOKE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALVIN AND WAUNETA.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 257 AND 269.

LAT...LON 4044 10207 4021 10207 4027 10228 4039 10240
      4044 10235
TIME...MOT...LOC 0317Z 299DEG 11KT 4044 10226

JN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1007 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1006 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     GOODLAND                39.35N 101.71W
07/27/2016                   SHERMAN            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            BRIEFLY 6 MILES EAST OF TOWN THEN DISSIPATED.

&&

JN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1020 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1014 PM     HAIL             13 S WHEELER            39.57N 101.71W
07/27/2016  E1.75 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JMARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1023 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1022 PM     HAIL             GOODLAND                39.35N 101.71W
07/27/2016  M1.00 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

JN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1128 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

NEZ080-081-280445-
RED WILLOW NE-HITCHCOCK NE-
1128 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN HITCHCOCK AND
SOUTHWESTERN RED WILLOW COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

AT 1128 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MCCOOK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MCCOOK...CULBERTSON AND DANBURY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4026 10096 4032 10071 4001 10033 4001 10084
TIME...MOT...LOC 0428Z 321DEG 33KT 4016 10072

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1034 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 PM     HAIL             GOODLAND                39.35N 101.71W
07/27/2016  M1.50 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

024