Severe Thunderstorm Warning 435, NWS Goodland, KS

091 
WWUS53 KGLD 281010
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
410 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

KSC109-181-193-199-281020-
/O.EXP.KGLD.SV.W.0435.000000T0000Z-160728T1015Z/
WALLACE KS-THOMAS KS-LOGAN KS-SHERMAN KS-
410 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN WALLACE...WESTERN
THOMAS...NORTHWESTERN LOGAN AND SHERMAN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 415
AM MDT/515 AM CDT/...
            
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3912 10101 3902 10118 3890 10179 3940 10188
      3957 10167 3956 10130
TIME...MOT...LOC 1006Z 326DEG 45KT 3956 10143 3944 10157 3938 10176 

$$

024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
226 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 226 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Another round of severe weather appears likely this afternoon as
the next shortwave trough topping the ridge slides down the
central High Plains in the northwest flow aloft. The combination
of strong instabilty of up to 3500 j/kg of CAPE and deep layer
shear of up to 50kts will set the stage for possible supercells in
the initiation phase with attendant threats of large hail,
damaging winds and a few tornadoes...then transitioning to a wind
and hail threat this evening as storms slide southeast and merge
into a possible MCS. A few isolated thunderstorms may linger into
the overnight but best chances will be early.

Instability will be lacking on Friday with a relatively cool
easterly upslope regime in the low levels. Not seeing much forcing
for precipitation on the synoptic scale, but cannot rule out a few
non-severe storms developing in the afternoon on the higher
terrain of eastern Colorado then moving into western parts of the
area in the evening.

The upper ridge will nudge eastward across the Rockies on Saturday
with rising heights forecast over the central plains. There are
some weak qpf signals in a few models apparently linked to a weak
disturbance rotating around the core of the ridge, so won't go
completely dry but chances appear slim for precipitation. It will
be very unstable and deep layer shear will be around 40kts so if
something were to develop a severe storm cannot be ruled out.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal today, below
normal on Friday then near normal on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 226 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Unsettled weather is anticipated during the extended, with chances
for thunderstorms nearly every period. Warmer temperatures return
to the region early next week.

At the start of the period, flow aloft is northwesterly with an area
of high pressure over the Desert Southwest and a trough over the
eastern half of the CONUS. On Sunday, the high begins to move east
and upper level ridging progresses towards the Plains. The ridging
continues to build into the region through midweek as a couple
closed lows move across Canada. With monsoonal moisture filtering
north towards the High Plains and multiple shortwaves passing
through the flow Sunday through Wednesday, there are chances for
thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. However, with differing
guidance, kept only slight chances for precipitation at this time
until timing and location of features are better resolved.

Hot temperatures return next week with highs in the mid to upper 90s
on Sunday and Monday and in the low to mid 90s on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Low temperatures look to remain in the 60s/low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Scattered thunderstorms overnight appear to have moved south of
the terminals for now...but more storms are developing in the
Nebraska panhandle and moving southwest and may impact the area
again before sunrise. There will also be some patch fog developing
around sunrise. For Thursday...thunderstorm chances will continue
to be the main aviation concern. There could be two rounds... one
in the morning and stronger storms in the afternoon. Exact timing
of the impacts is difficult so will carry VCTS during the times
which have the best chances for a thunderstorm. Some severe storms
will be possible in the afternoon with gusty winds and large hail.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...024

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1041 AM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-281645-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1041 AM MDT WED JUL 27 2016 /1141 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STORMS WILL BECOME SCATTERED AND
INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THEY SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHEAST COLORADO.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME NUMEROUS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MANY OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
202 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

KSZ016-280715-
GRAHAM KS-
202 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRAHAM COUNTY UNTIL
215 AM CDT...

AT 202 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES SOUTH OF BOGUE...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILL CITY...MOVING
SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HILL CITY...BOGUE AND NICODEMUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9987 3937 9990 3939 9960 3913 9961
TIME...MOT...LOC 0702Z 342DEG 20KT 3927 9970

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
229 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

KSZ002-280745-
RAWLINS KS-
229 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN RAWLINS COUNTY UNTIL
245 AM CDT...

AT 229 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MCDONALD...OR 13 MILES WEST OF ATWOOD...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MCDONALD AND BEARDSLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3974 10107 3973 10140 3978 10141 3991 10141
      3992 10122
TIME...MOT...LOC 0729Z 342DEG 20KT 3979 10130

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
140 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

KSZ001-NEZ079-280800-
CHEYENNE KS-DUNDY NE-
140 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN DUNDY COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA UNTIL 200 AM MDT/300 AM CDT/...

AT 140 AM MDT/240 AM CDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF BENKELMAN...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BENKELMAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4006 10165 4007 10143 3991 10142 3991 10161
TIME...MOT...LOC 0740Z 342DEG 20KT 3997 10152

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
144 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

COZ090-NEZ079-280800-
YUMA COUNTY CO-DUNDY NE-
144 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN YUMA AND
NORTHWESTERN DUNDY COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM MDT...

AT 144 AM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17
MILES NORTH OF WRAY...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ECKLEY...ALVIN...WAUNETA AND CLARKVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 247 AND 269.

LAT...LON 4044 10205 4035 10205 4035 10185 4024 10178
      4004 10248 4042 10269 4044 10257
TIME...MOT...LOC 0744Z 342DEG 20KT 4033 10220

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
253 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

KSZ002-280815-
RAWLINS KS-
253 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN RAWLINS COUNTY UNTIL
315 AM CDT...

AT 252 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ATWOOD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEARDSLEY AND BLAKEMAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3980 10129 3984 10110 3958 10081 3959 10130
TIME...MOT...LOC 0752Z 320DEG 33KT 3973 10114

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
322 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 AM     TSTM WND GST     13 N EDSON              39.52N 101.54W
07/28/2016  E60 MPH          SHERMAN            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

HILL