Severe Thunderstorm Warning 214, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
225 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 158 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Currently in a severe thunderstorm watch for most of the area.
Mesoscale boundaries have made this a complicated forecast with
high resolution/convectively allowing models having a hard time
with current scenario. Look to have two different waves of
thunderstorms. Current activity will push south and east and then
another cluster moves in from the north later in the evening.
Activity should decrease in intensity after midnight but will be
around the rest of the night.

Should have lingering thunderstorms in the morning in the far
east. Then the rest of the day should be dry/quiet due to stable
air mass in place after tonight's convection and 700 mb ridging
on top of that. Temperatures will be problematic due to cloud
cover and rain cooled air mass. Depending on tonight's scenario
works out, night shift will need to look into the possibility of
fog.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A fairly typical upper air pattern continues for late June. Upper
high over the four corners area will remain about stationary
through the week with some strengthening through mid-week. The
overall result for the forecast area will be NW-WNW flow with
weak, difficult to time, short wave troughs moving over the
Central High Plains. As a result, pop forecasts are somewhat
generic with higher pops favoring times and locations where model
guidance is more consistent. Better chances for precipitation will
be Tuesday night and again Thursday night into Friday night.
Precip chances are lower at other times but cannot be ruled out
given the favorable flow aloft and lingering mesoscale features.
Over the weekend the upper flow becomes more zonal with continued
chances for scattered thunderstorms.

High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to near 90 on
Wednesday, cooling to the lower 80s Thu-Fri and warming again over
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Complex forecast due to mesoscale influences from the overnight
convection that most of the model output is not taking into
account. Currently thunderstorms are occurring to the west and
northwest of both sites. For Kgld...am expecting thunderstorms to
begin affecting the site from around 20z to around 03z. Some mvfr
conditions look to occur here. Winds will remain highly variable.

For Kmck...There looks to be two different rounds of thunderstorms
that will affect the area. The first one will be around 21z and
lasting to near 00z. Second round looks to occur from around 04z
to near 08z. Did not feel confident enough to put in mvfr
conditions and just have vfr at this time. The winds will also be
highly variable in nature due to thunderstorm outflow boundaries.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...BULLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1034 AM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-281200-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1034 AM MDT MON JUN 27 2016 /1134 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
318 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

COZ092-272145-
CHEYENNE COUNTY-
318 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

...BRIEF TORNADOES POSSIBLE...

CONDITIONS FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADOES AS STORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT IS UNKNOWN WHICH IF ANY
STORM WOULD PRODUCE A TORNADO. ANY TORNADOES WHICH DEVELOP ARE
EXPECTED TO POSE A LIMITED THREAT AND ARE OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAKER STORMS AND NOT SEEN ON RADAR.

IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO ENSURE YOUR
SAFETY...THEN REPORT IT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 785-899-
7119. LOCAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
STORMS IN THEIR AREA.

LAT...LON 3869 10317 3869 10316 3900 10316 3885 10227
      3861 10235 3861 10305 3863 10317
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 332DEG 20KT 3883 10287

024

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
323 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             SHARON SPRINGS          38.89N 101.75W
06/27/2016  E0.88 INCH       WALLACE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

&&

DR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
334 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BURLINGTON              39.31N 102.27W
06/27/2016                   KIT CARSON         CO   PUBLIC

            SEMI BLOWN OVER NEAR BURLINGTON AND TWO CAR ACCIDENT WEST
            OF BURLINGTON ON HIGHWAY 24.

&&

JLUNDQUIST

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
411 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

COZ091-272245-
KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-
411 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY
UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

AT 411 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES SOUTH OF STRATTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STRATTON.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 70 IN COLORADO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 419 AND 429.
 HIGHWAY 385 NEAR MILE MARKER 184.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3918 10273 3931 10261 3926 10226 3906 10248
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 296DEG 32KT 3921 10258

JN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
513 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

KSZ042-272300-
WICHITA KS-
513 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WICHITA COUNTY UNTIL
600 PM CDT...

AT 513 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES NORTHWEST OF MODOC...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN
WICHITA COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3869 10131 3869 10114 3868 10113 3850 10113
      3849 10119
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 324DEG 32KT 3864 10119

JN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
428 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             5 NE TRIBUNE            38.52N 101.69W
06/27/2016  E0.88 INCH       GREELEY            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

&&

DR