Severe Thunderstorm Warning 208, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
225 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 158 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Currently in a severe thunderstorm watch for most of the area.
Mesoscale boundaries have made this a complicated forecast with
high resolution/convectively allowing models having a hard time
with current scenario. Look to have two different waves of
thunderstorms. Current activity will push south and east and then
another cluster moves in from the north later in the evening.
Activity should decrease in intensity after midnight but will be
around the rest of the night.

Should have lingering thunderstorms in the morning in the far
east. Then the rest of the day should be dry/quiet due to stable
air mass in place after tonight's convection and 700 mb ridging
on top of that. Temperatures will be problematic due to cloud
cover and rain cooled air mass. Depending on tonight's scenario
works out, night shift will need to look into the possibility of
fog.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A fairly typical upper air pattern continues for late June. Upper
high over the four corners area will remain about stationary
through the week with some strengthening through mid-week. The
overall result for the forecast area will be NW-WNW flow with
weak, difficult to time, short wave troughs moving over the
Central High Plains. As a result, pop forecasts are somewhat
generic with higher pops favoring times and locations where model
guidance is more consistent. Better chances for precipitation will
be Tuesday night and again Thursday night into Friday night.
Precip chances are lower at other times but cannot be ruled out
given the favorable flow aloft and lingering mesoscale features.
Over the weekend the upper flow becomes more zonal with continued
chances for scattered thunderstorms.

High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to near 90 on
Wednesday, cooling to the lower 80s Thu-Fri and warming again over
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Complex forecast due to mesoscale influences from the overnight
convection that most of the model output is not taking into
account. Currently thunderstorms are occurring to the west and
northwest of both sites. For Kgld...am expecting thunderstorms to
begin affecting the site from around 20z to around 03z. Some mvfr
conditions look to occur here. Winds will remain highly variable.

For Kmck...There looks to be two different rounds of thunderstorms
that will affect the area. The first one will be around 21z and
lasting to near 00z. Second round looks to occur from around 04z
to near 08z. Did not feel confident enough to put in mvfr
conditions and just have vfr at this time. The winds will also be
highly variable in nature due to thunderstorm outflow boundaries.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...BULLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1034 AM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-281200-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1034 AM MDT MON JUN 27 2016 /1134 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
135 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     HAIL             8 NW BURLINGTON         39.39N 102.38W
06/27/2016  E1.00 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL STARTED AROUND 110PM MDT AND IS STILL
            OCCURRING AS OF 135PM MDT.

&&

DR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
140 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HAIL             BURLINGTON              39.31N 102.27W
06/27/2016  E1.00 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 60-70 MPH WINDS WITH BLOWING DUST

&&

024

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
245 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

KSZ001-272000-
CHEYENNE KS-
245 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 245 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES SOUTH OF ST. FRANCIS...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
CHEYENNE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3957 10158 3957 10190 3965 10191 3971 10168
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 343DEG 10KT 3962 10178

024

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
159 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0137 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 S BURLINGTON          39.25N 102.27W
06/27/2016  M66 MPH          KIT CARSON         CO   ASOS

&&

024

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
212 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

COZ091-272045-
KIT CARSON COUNTY-
212 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

...BRIEF TORNADO SIGHTED...

AT APPROXIMATELY 2PM MDT A BRIEF TORNADO WAS REPORTED NORTHEAST OF
FLAGLER WHICH HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADOES AS STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT IS UNKNOWN IF ANY ADDITIONAL
TORNADOES WILL OCCUR. ANY TORNADOES WHICH DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO
POSE A LIMITED THREAT AND ARE OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKER STORMS
AND NOT SEEN ON RADAR.

IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO ENSURE YOUR
SAFETY...THEN REPORT IT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 785-899-
7119. LOCAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
STORMS IN THEIR AREA.

LAT...LON 3932 10315 3945 10307 3923 10260 3904 10273
      3904 10282 3925 10316
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 302DEG 19KT 3928 10292

024

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
219 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

COZ091-272030-
KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-
219 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM MDT...

AT 218 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
VONA...OR 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF SEIBERT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STRATTON...SEIBERT AND VONA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 IN COLORADO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 404 AND
421.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3932 10296 3946 10280 3936 10250 3913 10272
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 302DEG 18KT 3935 10278

024