Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Goodland, KS

608 
WWUS53 KGLD 270132
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
732 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

COC125-270142-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-160627T0145Z/
YUMA CO-
732 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN YUMA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4044 10227 4025 10205 4024 10205 4021 10248
      4044 10260
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 320DEG 16KT 4035 10236 

$$

DR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
532 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Main forecast issues will be chances of thunderstorms and severe
weather through tomorrow. Satellite showing a nearly flat flow over
the northern portion of the country and a broad ridge with embedded
shortwave details.

Not sure how tonight is going to pan out. Currently having cumulus
field develop over northern half of the area with the best
development along the Kansas and Nebraska border. Morning convection
laid down an outflow boundary currently over/near the northeastern
portion of the area. This is in addition to a weak surface trough
that was draped over the southeastern portion of the area. However,
that appears to have moved south a little or washed out.

Shear zone/weak shortwave that was near/over the eastern portion of
the area has moved east a little with the deepest moisture
associated with it. So despite the best moisture and instability it
has the least amount of lift. To account for this area will have a
slight chance through mid evening.

The more substantial area of thunderstorms will be over the northern
and western portion with the models not completely agreeing on where.
Weaker shortwave and surface trough are near or approaching this
area. The main lift from these looks to be over the northern and
western sections into the middle of the night. Kept the general idea
the overnight shift had and made adjustments on timing. With high
bases and Dcape values would expect that we could get damaging winds.

Looks to be an interesting/active weather day tomorrow. Mid level
ridge shifts further south and west bringing to the area stronger
but still weaker northwest flow aloft. A shortwave trough approaches
the area from the northwest. Not sure about the surface pattern. It
looks like the old front stays to the south and west of the area due
to a stronger lee trough. It appears that another front is also
coming down at the same time. However you slice it looks to have
easterly surface flow under northwest flow aloft.

Models generate a cluster of thunderstorms but models differ but
differ on onset and locations affected initially although the
certainty of getting not only getting thunderstorms and severe
weather appears pretty high due to the amount of shear and
instability. At this time will have rather high chance with severe
wording in the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 121 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Thunderstorms will be sliding southeast across the area Monday
night associated with a shortwave trough coming out of the central
Rockies. Best chances will be in the southeastern part of the area
in the evening becoming scattered and mainly south of Interstate
70 after midnight.

The upper pattern changes very little the rest of the upcoming
week. A ridge will be centered near the Four Corners and trough
near the Great Lakes with northwest flow aloft over the central
plains. Embedded weak shortwave troughs will result in daily
thunderstorm chances. Latest model output suggest heavy rain
possible late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning across eastern
areas (east of Highway 25) and again on Thursday night, but across
western and southern areas. Pops have increased substantially
during those time periods. A subtle pattern change over the
weekend to more of a zonal flow aloft as the ridge in the west
weakens and the axis moves into the central plains may result in
a decrease in coverage of storms during that time. Temperatures
will be near to slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 532 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Conditions...VFR...with scattered mid/high clouds.

Precip/Wx....None at this time. Thunderstorms may develop in the
vicinity later tonight for both sites that may require further
updates. the time frame for possibility will range from approx
02z-09z Monday. Low confidence at this time to add in anything in
lower category for now for visibility...etc.

Winds........For KGLD...SSE around 10 kts w/ gusts to 20 kts thru
0230z Monday. By 12z Monday...ESE around 10 kts. For KMCK...SE around
10 kts thru 09z Monday...then Light/Variable thru 14z Monday
before becoming E around 10 kts.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1042 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-271200-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1042 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016 /1142 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
NORTON TO TRIBUNE. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. THIS AREA WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR. FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLBY TO FLAGER...SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.