Severe Thunderstorm Warning 279, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1222 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFs/

A broken line of thunderstorms is moving across North and Central
Texas tonight. Storms will continue to impact the Metroplex
airports through 07-08Z and may impact KACT between 07-09Z.
Lightning and gusty winds are the main threats with these storms.
Hi-res model guidance is now pointing towards additional
convection affecting the DFW airports around midday and will
include a VCTS mention from 18-21Z.

The storms will likely interrupt the return of MVFR stratus
overnight but will keep a Tempo for BKN025 at all the TAF sites
between 10-13Z. Outside of variable and gusty winds within and
near thunderstorms, south winds between 10-15 kts are expected
overnight with speeds of 12-17 kts on Tuesday and gusts up to 25
kts.

JLDunn

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016/
The clouds associated with overnight/morning convection have been
slow to clear today and this was keeping afternoon temperatures a
bit cooler than anticipated. It was still hot and humid this
afternoon and many heat index values topped the century mark at
3 pm, especially across the western zones.

The morning convection and clouds have also limited early afternoon
convection. However, we are growing a bit more concerned about
the short wave that is currently rotating out of the Four Corners
region. It is likely that storms will develop in West Texas late
this afternoon as this feature moves east and interacts with a
weak cold front. These storms will have a potential to move into
the western portions of North Texas this evening. We don't feel
storms will be as extensive as they were last night since the
large scale forcing will be weaker and most likely displaced a bit
farther north than last night. However, the wind profile depicted
on the 18Z FWD sounding shows descent low level turning and 20 to
30 knots of mid level flow so it is possible that any storms that
develop may be able to sustain themselves for a long period of
time and will have some strong wind and hail potential. Precipitable
water values remain high so locally heavy rainfall will also be
possible.

Upper level high pressure will ease into the region from
the west on Tuesday and this will bring mostly rain-free and
hot weather through the weekend. The upper ridge will remain
somewhat flat through early next week as multiple upper level
troughs move across the northern half of the CONUS. Therefore,
temperatures should remain hot but not record breaking with highs
mainly in the 90s. We will leave the heat advisory in place
through Tuesday but not extended through the week at this time
since slightly drier air the second half of the week may keep heat
index values below criteria.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  98  79  98  79 /   5   0   0   0   5
Waco                79  98  77  98  78 /   5   0   0   0   0
Paris               76  95  77  96  77 /   5   0   0   5   5
Denton              78  97  78  97  79 /   5   0   0   0   5
McKinney            78  96  78  96  79 /   5   0   0   0   5
Dallas              80  98  79  98  80 /   5   0   0   0   5
Terrell             78  96  77  96  78 /   5   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           79  97  78  97  78 /   5   0   0   0   0
Temple              78  97  77  97  77 /   5   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       77  99  76 100  77 /   5   0   0   5   5

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

82/77

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1056 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-051200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
1056 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT NORTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE
TO WACO TO PALESTINE LINE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES
EACH DAY WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 100 AND 108 DEGREES BY MID
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

JLDUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1104 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

TXZ130-141-050500-
COMANCHE TX-ERATH TX-
1104 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL COMANCHE AND ERATH
COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

AT 1103 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES SOUTHWEST OF HUCKABAY...OR 14 MILES WEST OF STEPHENVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...DE LEON...MORGAN MILL AND HUCKABAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. SEEK
A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3230 9847 3251 9847 3251 9807 3208 9787
      3185 9834 3216 9874
TIME...MOT...LOC 0403Z 290DEG 24KT 3229 9844

STALLEY

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1220 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

TXZ118-119-050615-
DALLAS TX-TARRANT TX-
1220 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DALLAS AND EASTERN TARRANT
COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

AT 1219 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM FORT WORTH TO GRAPEVINE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DALLAS...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...GARLAND...IRVING...GRAND PRAIRIE...
MESQUITE...CARROLLTON...RICHARDSON...FLOWER MOUND...MANSFIELD...ROWLETT...
EULESS...DESOTO...BEDFORD...GRAPEVINE...CEDAR HILL...HALTOM CITY...WYLIE
AND KELLER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. SEEK
A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3298 9652 3255 9653 3255 9733 3299 9721
TIME...MOT...LOC 0519Z 293DEG 30KT 3298 9707

STALLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1223 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1128 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S WEATHERFORD         32.70N  97.80W
07/04/2016                   PARKER             TX   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWNED ALONG TIN TOP HIGHWAY NEAR MONTGOMERY LANE