Severe Thunderstorm Warning 273, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
653 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFs/

Concerns...MVFR stratus again tonight and potential for convection
after 03Z in the DFW Metroplex.

Coverage of thunderstorms west of North Texas this evening is much
lower than this time yesterday, but there are still indications
that additional convection will develop west of the DFW airports
through 03Z as a shortwave moves into the region. These storms
could impact the Metroplex airports between 03-07Z with threats
for lightning and gusty winds. Otherwise, the main concern
overnight is the potential for MVFR stratus. The chances for MVFR
cigs is highest at KACT but is expected to be relatively short-
lived as strong southwest winds above the surface will likely
push the stratus east of the airport. Will prevail BKN025 at KACT
from 09-12Z. For the Metroplex airports, will tempo for BKN020
between 10-13Z.

South winds at 10-15 kts will prevail through the night. Wind speeds
will increase to 13-17 kts with gusts up to 25 kts during the day
on Tuesday.

JLDunn

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016/
The clouds associated with overnight/morning convection have been
slow to clear today and this was keeping afternoon temperatures a
bit cooler than anticipated. It was still hot and humid this
afternoon and many heat index values topped the century mark at
3 pm, especially across the western zones.

The morning convection and clouds have also limited early afternoon
convection. However, we are growing a bit more concerned about
the short wave that is currently rotating out of the Four Corners
region. It is likely that storms will develop in West Texas late
this afternoon as this feature moves east and interacts with a
weak cold front. These storms will have a potential to move into
the western portions of North Texas this evening. We don't feel
storms will be as extensive as they were last night since the
large scale forcing will be weaker and most likely displaced a bit
farther north than last night. However, the wind profile depicted
on the 18Z FWD sounding shows descent low level turning and 20 to
30 knots of mid level flow so it is possible that any storms that
develop may be able to sustain themselves for a long period of
time and will have some strong wind and hail potential. Precipitable
water values remain high so locally heavy rainfall will also be
possible.

Upper level high pressure will ease into the region from
the west on Tuesday and this will bring mostly rain-free and
hot weather through the weekend. The upper ridge will remain
somewhat flat through early next week as multiple upper level
troughs move across the northern half of the CONUS. Therefore,
temperatures should remain hot but not record breaking with highs
mainly in the 90s. We will leave the heat advisory in place
through Tuesday but not extended through the week at this time
since slightly drier air the second half of the week may keep heat
index values below criteria.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  97  79  98  79 /  30  20   5   0   0
Waco                79  97  79  98  77 /  10   5   5   0   0
Paris               76  93  76  95  77 /  30  20   5   0   0
Denton              78  96  78  97  78 /  30  10   5   0   0
McKinney            78  95  78  96  78 /  30  20   5   0   0
Dallas              81  97  80  98  79 /  30  20   5   0   0
Terrell             78  94  78  96  77 /  30  20   5   0   0
Corsicana           78  96  79  97  78 /  20  10   5   0   0
Temple              77  96  78  97  77 /   5   5   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       77  98  77  99  76 /  30  10   5   0   0

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

82/77

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
407 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-051130-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
407 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT NORTH OF AN
EASTLAND TO DALLAS TO ATHENS LINE. ANY STORMS THAT INITIALLY FORM
BETWEEN BRECKENRIDGE AND BOWIE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE SLOW
MOVING AND NOT IMPACT THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR UNTIL 10 PM OR
LATER. EASTERN AREAS...SUCH AS PARIS AND CANTON...SHOULD NOT
EXPECT ANY RAIN CHANCES UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERALL
COVERAGE AND LIKELIHOOD WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS LAST NIGHT'S
ACTIVITY.

IF STORMS DO FORM...THE MAIN THREATS WOULD ONCE AGAIN BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES
EACH DAY WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 100 AND 108 DEGREES BY MID
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
647 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

TXZ129-050030-
EASTLAND TX-
647 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTLAND COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM
CDT...

AT 647 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
PUTNAM...OR 7 MILES WEST OF CISCO...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EASTLAND...CISCO...RANGER AND CARBON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. SEEK
A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO CLOSELY MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
FORT WORTH.

&&

LAT...LON 3251 9911 3251 9869 3216 9874 3216 9876
      3215 9912
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 265DEG 15KT 3239 9911

STALLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
731 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

TXZ129-050100-
EASTLAND TX-
731 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN EASTLAND COUNTY UNTIL 800
PM CDT...

AT 731 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ATWELL...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CISCO...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EASTLAND...CISCO...CARBON AND I-20 NEAR THE CALLAHAN-EASTLAND COUNTY
LINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO CLOSELY MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
FORT WORTH.

&&

LAT...LON 3244 9912 3243 9880 3214 9882 3208 9912
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 273DEG 14KT 3231 9907

JLDUNN

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