Severe Thunderstorm Warning 277, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
653 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFs/

Concerns...MVFR stratus again tonight and potential for convection
after 03Z in the DFW Metroplex.

Coverage of thunderstorms west of North Texas this evening is much
lower than this time yesterday, but there are still indications
that additional convection will develop west of the DFW airports
through 03Z as a shortwave moves into the region. These storms
could impact the Metroplex airports between 03-07Z with threats
for lightning and gusty winds. Otherwise, the main concern
overnight is the potential for MVFR stratus. The chances for MVFR
cigs is highest at KACT but is expected to be relatively short-
lived as strong southwest winds above the surface will likely
push the stratus east of the airport. Will prevail BKN025 at KACT
from 09-12Z. For the Metroplex airports, will tempo for BKN020
between 10-13Z.

South winds at 10-15 kts will prevail through the night. Wind speeds
will increase to 13-17 kts with gusts up to 25 kts during the day
on Tuesday.

JLDunn

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016/
The clouds associated with overnight/morning convection have been
slow to clear today and this was keeping afternoon temperatures a
bit cooler than anticipated. It was still hot and humid this
afternoon and many heat index values topped the century mark at
3 pm, especially across the western zones.

The morning convection and clouds have also limited early afternoon
convection. However, we are growing a bit more concerned about
the short wave that is currently rotating out of the Four Corners
region. It is likely that storms will develop in West Texas late
this afternoon as this feature moves east and interacts with a
weak cold front. These storms will have a potential to move into
the western portions of North Texas this evening. We don't feel
storms will be as extensive as they were last night since the
large scale forcing will be weaker and most likely displaced a bit
farther north than last night. However, the wind profile depicted
on the 18Z FWD sounding shows descent low level turning and 20 to
30 knots of mid level flow so it is possible that any storms that
develop may be able to sustain themselves for a long period of
time and will have some strong wind and hail potential. Precipitable
water values remain high so locally heavy rainfall will also be
possible.

Upper level high pressure will ease into the region from
the west on Tuesday and this will bring mostly rain-free and
hot weather through the weekend. The upper ridge will remain
somewhat flat through early next week as multiple upper level
troughs move across the northern half of the CONUS. Therefore,
temperatures should remain hot but not record breaking with highs
mainly in the 90s. We will leave the heat advisory in place
through Tuesday but not extended through the week at this time
since slightly drier air the second half of the week may keep heat
index values below criteria.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  97  79  98  79 /  30  20   5   0   0
Waco                79  97  79  98  77 /  10   5   5   0   0
Paris               76  93  76  95  77 /  30  20   5   0   0
Denton              78  96  78  97  78 /  30  10   5   0   0
McKinney            78  95  78  96  78 /  30  20   5   0   0
Dallas              81  97  80  98  79 /  30  20   5   0   0
Terrell             78  94  78  96  77 /  30  20   5   0   0
Corsicana           78  96  79  97  78 /  20  10   5   0   0
Temple              77  96  78  97  77 /   5   5   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       77  98  77  99  76 /  30  10   5   0   0

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

82/77

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1056 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-051200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
1056 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT NORTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE
TO WACO TO PALESTINE LINE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES
EACH DAY WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 100 AND 108 DEGREES BY MID
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

JLDUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1024 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

TXZ100-101-050400-
JACK TX-YOUNG TX-
1024 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN YOUNG AND JACK COUNTIES
UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

AT 1022 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF YOUNG COUNTY AND INTO JACK
COUNTY. THIS BOUNDARY WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION...STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR A DECAYING THUNDERSTORM WEST
OF GRAHAM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRAHAM...JACKSBORO...OLNEY...BRYSON AND NEWPORT.

LAT...LON 3340 9842 3346 9841 3347 9798 3344 9798
      3343 9792 3300 9792 3301 9843 3296 9843
      3296 9854 3315 9857 3339 9877
TIME...MOT...LOC 0322Z 241DEG 41KT 3334 9869 3318 9851 3302 9840

JLDUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1043 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

TXZ116-117-050445-
PALO PINTO TX-PARKER TX-
1043 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PARKER AND PALO PINTO
COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

AT 1042 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRAFORD...OR 17 MILES WEST OF MINERAL WELLS...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WEATHERFORD...MINERAL WELLS...GRAFORD...GORDON...COOL...POOLVILLE...MINERAL
WELLS STATE PARK...STRAWN...MILLSAP AND MINGUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. SEEK
A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3301 9843 3300 9781 3256 9784 3256 9807
      3252 9807 3251 9851
TIME...MOT...LOC 0342Z 274DEG 26KT 3283 9837

STALLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1051 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

TXZ105-120-121-050445-
ROCKWALL TX-HUNT TX-KAUFMAN TX-
1051 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HUNT...ROCKWALL AND
NORTHERN KAUFMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

AT 1051 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
HEATH...OR OVER ROCKWALL...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROWLETT...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...FORNEY...ROYSE CITY...HEATH...FATE...TALTY...
QUINLAN...HAWK COVE...MOBILE CITY...MCLENDON-CHISHOLM...OAK RIDGE AND
LAWRENCE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. SEEK
A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3278 9652 3298 9651 3298 9607 3252 9608
TIME...MOT...LOC 0351Z 290DEG 24KT 3288 9646

STALLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1104 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

TXZ130-141-050500-
COMANCHE TX-ERATH TX-
1104 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL COMANCHE AND ERATH
COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

AT 1103 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES SOUTHWEST OF HUCKABAY...OR 14 MILES WEST OF STEPHENVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...DE LEON...MORGAN MILL AND HUCKABAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. SEEK
A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3230 9847 3251 9847 3251 9807 3208 9787
      3185 9834 3216 9874
TIME...MOT...LOC 0403Z 290DEG 24KT 3229 9844

STALLEY

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