Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1007 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE SEVERE TSTORM WATCH 98 THROUGH 3
A.M FOR AREAS JUST WEST-NORTH OF DFW. CLUSTERS OF STRONG-SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOW MOVING INTO OUR FAR NW COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY MORPH INTO A SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HRS. INSTABILITY DOES TEND TO BE LESS SOUTHEAST OF THE
WATCH AREA...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA. THE LINEAR COMPLEX IS SHOWN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE DUE TO VEERING AND WEAKENING OF
THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. WATCH AND UPDATED FORECAST ALREADY
ISSUED.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 639 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016/
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS PERSISTING FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE
RAIN.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS. MVFR CIGS WITH BASES BETWEEN 1-2 KFT ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO KACT AROUND 06Z. A LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL OVERNIGHT BUT THE THUNDER THREAT MAY BE
LOWER AT KACT AS THE LINE MAY BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. WILL PREVAIL -TSRA AT THE DFW METROPLEX AIRPORTS
FROM 08-10Z AND WILL PREVAIL -SHRA VCTS AT KACT FROM 09-11Z. THE
TIMING OF THE STORMS MAY BE ADJUSTED BY AN HOUR EACH DIRECTION
DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE EAST.

BEHIND THE LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING IS LOW AND MAY BE ADJUSTED WITH FUTURE TAF
ISSUANCES. THE WINDS AT DFW WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
OR NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS. THE WINDS AT KACT MAY ALSO
BRIEFLY BECOME LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY OR NORTHERLY BEHIND THE RAIN BUT
WILL PREVAIL LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL
RETURN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING.

JLDUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016/
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE NEXT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW IS SWINGING THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND INTO WEST TEXAS AT THIS
HOUR. THIS IS SPREADING A BROAD AREA OF ASCENT ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WHERE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AIDED BY THE FORCING ALOFT.

ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...THINGS REMAIN QUIET FOR THE TIME BEING.
SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NOTED IN THE WIND FIELDS. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE OCCURRED
MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 BUT A GENERAL LACK OF FOCUS FOR ANY
CONVECTION HAS LEFT THE AREA PRECIPITATION FREE THIS AFTERNOON.

AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING...THE EASTWARD MOVING TROUGH WILL
SPREAD ASCENT INTO NORTH TEXAS. LATEST OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THIS
YIELDS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS
INSTABILITY HAS SLOWLY BEEN CREEPING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY
MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO HEATING BUT ALSO AS BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS PULLED NORTHWARD. WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS NOTED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH
SHOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY STRONGER EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY INCREASING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS CONGEAL
THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO A
SMALL COMPLEX LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE AND THE FACT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN
UNDISTURBED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...HAVE RAISED POPS
SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...
THINK WIDESPREAD SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
CONCERNS. RIGHT NOW THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PROFILE IS
WEAK...HOWEVER AS WE GET INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS THE 850MB
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO 25 TO 30 KT AND NEAR SURFACE
WINDS WILL BACK AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION. RAP
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL CURVE AND
ENLARGE THROUGH THE LOWEST 2KM RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. NORMALLY
THIS TIME OF NIGHT WOULD NOT BE A BIG CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WOULD BE LIMITED OR UNAVAILABLE DUE
TO INCREASING INHIBITION. HOWEVER TONIGHT...MOST OF NORTH TEXAS
SHOULD REMAIN UNCAPPED AS THE LINE APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE LINE OF STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY...
BEING ASSISTED BY FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH. IT ALSO SHOULD
SUPPORT SURFACE BASED PARCELS BEING LIFTED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE LINE. IF THAT IS THE CASE AND THE CONVECTION IS SURFACE
BASED...THERE WOULD BE A LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. THE OVERALL HAIL
THREAT APPEARS LOW...ALTHOUGH ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE LINE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-35 COULD PRODUCE
HAIL.

CONCERNING FLOODING POTENTIAL TONIGHT...
THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY...WITH ONLY
LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN ANY GIVEN AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED FLOODING RECENTLY COULD
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS BUT THINK THE OVERALL FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS LOW SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER IT CLEARS OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...MOST OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS
TOMORROW NIGHT AND IT APPEARS THAT ONE FINAL COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DURING THIS TIME.

ONCE WE GET THROUGH THURSDAY...WE SHOULD HAVE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF
NICE WEATHER BEFORE THINGS RAMP UP AGAIN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
MULTIPLE DAYS OF DRYLINE CONVECTION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

DUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    63  79  63  77  57 /  90  30  50  60   5
WACO                62  77  62  77  57 /  70  50  40  50  10
PARIS               63  75  59  74  54 /  90  50  40  50   5
DENTON              57  76  59  74  54 /  90  30  60  60   5
MCKINNEY            60  76  59  75  54 /  90  40  50  60   5
DALLAS              64  79  64  77  58 /  90  40  50  60   5
TERRELL             62  76  63  76  56 /  80  50  40  60  10
CORSICANA           67  77  65  78  58 /  60  70  40  50  10
TEMPLE              66  76  64  78  58 /  60  60  40  50  20
MINERAL WELLS       56  77  59  76  53 /  90  20  60  60   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

82/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1016 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-201200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
1016 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A LINE
FROM COMANCHE...TO GLEN ROSE...TO DECATUR...TO GAINESVILLE THROUGH
3 AM CDT. THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...THE THREAT WILL BE LOW.

THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARD SUNRISE
AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER...STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. DURATION OF RAINFALL
AT ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD BE LIMITED AND PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING. HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY AGGRAVATE ONGOING
TRIBUTARY FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG THE BRAZOS AND TRINITY RIVER
BASINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE STORMS ONGOING AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL AFFECT AREAS
MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...ENDING BEFORE MIDDAY. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
WITH THE STORMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN.

AFTER A FEW QUIET DAYS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE...TO GLEN
ROSE...TO DECATUR...TO GAINESVILLE THROUGH 3 AM CDT.

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