Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
924 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO HAVE BEEN
PERSISTING MUCH OF THE EVENING TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35/35W.
THESE SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY MOVING NORTH AND SO FAR PRODUCING LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SEVERE STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR TORNADOES HAVE
REMAINED IN WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING...FORMING NEAR A STATIONARY DRYLINE WHERE ALSO THE BEST
LARGE SCALE LIFT IS OCCURRING FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO
ONE OR TWO LINES THAT MOVES EAST...REACHING NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LIKELY ALSO FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE...MOVING NORTH IN THE MEAN
FLOW. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING EAST
OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A LITTLE AFTER. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT TO
THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 OVERNIGHT AND THEN THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EAST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

AS THE LINE OF STORMS APPROACHES OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT...A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST BUT THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND AS THE STORMS MOVE FARTHER EAST. INSTABILITY VALUES
OVERNIGHT ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS DUE TO THE
DISTRIBUTION OF CAPE IN A TALL AND SKINNY MANNER ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR VALUES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ROTATING UPDRAFTS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT A
LOW TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST DUE TO SURFACE WINDS BACKED TO
THE EAST ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND NICELY CURVED HODOGRAPHS. THE HAIL THREAT IS ALSO LOW
AND LARGE HAIL IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO A LACK OF STEEP LAPSE RATES.

FOR THE UPDATE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS OVERNIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS
TO THE ZONE FORECAST FOR WESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE
AREA TOMORROW/SUNDAY.

JLDUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 700 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016/
VFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET THEN CEILINGS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY BECOME IFR OVERNIGHT. IFR CEILINGS
AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEST
OF THE TERMINALS. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AND IMPACT ALL NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TAF SITES THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY. THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

PREVAILING SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS LOW WILL GENERALLY DRIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST COLORADO/
NORTHEAST UTAH/SOUTHWEST WYOMING BY MONDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK BEFORE THE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING AND THE UPPER FLOW ALLOWING WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...20 TO 40 PERCENT POPS
WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES TODAY MANAGED TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW SPOTS
TOPPING OUT ABOVE 80 DEGREES. BESIDES SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...ALL OF THE ACTION
HAS BEEN ACROSS WEST TEXAS ALONG THE DRYLINE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SOME OF THE STORMS CURRENTLY
OVER WEST TEXAS SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT STARTING AT 7 PM THIS
EVENING ALONG AND WEST OF A BOWIE TO HAMILTON LINE. STARTING AT 6
AM SUNDAY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF A BONHAM TO CORSICANA TO FRANKLIN LINE AND THIS WATCH
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO OVER 6 INCHES
ARE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 6 PM TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES. RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY ALSO RESULT IN SOME RIVER FLOODING ALONG PARTS OF THE
TRINITY AND BRAZOS RIVER SYSTEMS. ALSO...THE SULPHUR AND SABINE
WILL BE AFFECTED DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE BIGGEST
CONCERN THOUGH WILL BE FOR AREAS CLOSER TO A WARM FRONT THAT IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MIXED LAYER CAPES WILL
RISE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STRONG
SHEAR. THUS EXPECT THERE TO BE THE RISK OF SOME TORNADOES  SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20.

EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY
AS MODELS INDICATE PWATS OF 1.5 TO NEARLY 2 INCHES. THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS MONDAY WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST TUESDAY BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY.

WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MOST
OF THE COMING WEEK...EXPECT LOWS TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE RAIN SHOULD KEEP HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    67  72  65  74  63 /  40 100  90  70  70
WACO                68  73  66  73  64 /  50 100  90  70  60
PARIS               65  71  63  71  61 /  20  80  80  80  70
DENTON              67  70  62  73  62 /  50 100  90  60  70
MCKINNEY            66  71  64  73  63 /  30 100  90  70  70
DALLAS              67  72  66  74  64 /  40 100  90  70  70
TERRELL             67  72  66  74  63 /  30 100  90  70  60
CORSICANA           66  74  66  74  64 /  30 100  90  80  60
TEMPLE              68  74  65  73  64 /  50 100  90  80  60
MINERAL WELLS       65  71  60  73  61 /  90 100  90  50  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091-100-101-115-
116-129-130-141>143.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ092>094-102>105-117>121-131>134-144>147-156>162-174-175.

&&

79/82

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
355 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-171200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
355 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THERE IS CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE REGION TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PARTICULARLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BOWIE TO HAMILTON...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THIS SAME AREA
COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS ALL
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
A FEW TORNADOES. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING
TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

WITH SUCH A BROAD AREA OF INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND SHEAR IN
PLACE...JUST ABOUT ANY OF OUR COUNTIES COULD SEE A SEVERE STORM OR
EXPERIENCE FLOODING.

RAIN AND STORM CHANCES DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ALONG AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM BOWIE TO HAMILTON LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.