River Flood Warning 55, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
113 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...CONTINUED LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS

A LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE METROPLEX AND WACO TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHED THROUGH THE TAF SITES EARLIER THIS
MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD
VEER AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THUS HAVE INDICATED WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND 21Z
AND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 02Z. THIS TIMING WILL LIKELY NEED TO
ADJUSTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT CATEGORICAL SHRA AND VCTS
WITH SOME TEMPO TSRA IN THE TAF THROUGH TONIGHT. CEILINGS HAVE
BEEN MOSTLY VFR AT THE TAF SITES OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER RAIN...SO
HAVE THEM VFR WITH A TEMPO MVFR IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 02Z.
CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND IFR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY MONDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH AT AROUND
12 KNOTS 12-14Z MONDAY AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE METROPLEX.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE
WEATHER. THEREAFTER...EXPECT LINGERING RAIN CHANCES WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES.

...SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE CESSATION OF THE
ONGOING COMPLEX OF STORMS AND SUBSEQUENT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. RADAR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH TOTAL
LIGHTNING DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING OF
CONVECTION CONTINUES. WITH THIS CONVECTION GRADUALLY DRIFTING AWAY FROM
THE BEST FORCING TO THE NORTH AND WEST...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FOR THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND. WHILE THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WANES THIS MORNING...THE SLOW MOTION OF THE
COMPLEX COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WILL FACILITATE AN ONGOING FLASH FLOOD THREAT THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF A GAINESVILLE TO
MINERAL WELLS TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE TWO AREAS THAT WE WILL BE
MONITORING CLOSELY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. THE FIRST
WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE TOWARDS THE
EAST FROM NEAR WICHITA FALLS TO ABILENE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION MAY BE HINDERED A BIT DUE
TO STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE MORNING COMPLEX. HOWEVER...LARGE
SCALE ASCENT COURTESY OF FORCING FROM THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER JET TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA
EXHIBIT A FAIRLY TALL AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SUGGESTING VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE WILL ALSO
FACILITATE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS
THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE I-35
CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS THIS
CONVECTION MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST AT A VERY SLOW PACE...IT WILL
ENCOUNTER AN ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL LIKELY BE CHARACTERIZED BY
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-1.75" RANGE WHICH IS
APPROACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL VALUES. WITH MOST HI-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE PUSHING THIS CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WE FEEL THAT IT IS NECESSARY
TO EXPAND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO THE ENTIRE CWA.

THE OTHER AREA FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MOST COARSE AND HI-
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST MODEST LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS
WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY.
THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE TWO INFLUENCES. THE FIRST IS THAT IT SHOULD
CREATE A WIND PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR THE TRANSPORT OF GOOD LOW
LEVEL THETA-E AIR NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE SECOND IS THAT
IT SHOULD BACK LOW LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN A WIND PROFILE
CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. EXAMINATION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS REVEAL A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ALOFT AND
AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR /ON THE ORDER OF 30-35
KNOTS/ ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STRONG WIND
FIELD AND DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD FACILITATE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND
THUS A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL /ALBEIT
LOW/ WILL EXIST GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY. THE CYCLONIC CURVATURE OF THE HODOGRAPHS /INDICATIVE
OF BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW/ WILL FACILITATE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES.
IN ADDITION...ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY SERVE AS BOTH A FOCUS FOR THE INITIATION OF NEW CONVECTION
AS WELL AS A RICH SOURCE FOR LOW LEVEL SRH. THIS REGION WILL ALSO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS APPROACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND AS A
RESULT...FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

...LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
FOR MONDAY....FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH THROUGH PARTS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN NEAR THIS FEATURE. WITH
CONTINUED STRONG TRANSPORT OF RICH GULF AIR IN CONJUNCTION WITH
SUFFICIENT ASCENT...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
TOWARDS OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THIS POINT IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

FOR TUESDAY...THE OVERALL RAIN THREAT WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES. WITH THE MOIST REGIME...SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES
MAY STILL CONTINUE. IF LIFT NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IS A
BIT STRONGER THAN CURRENT INDICATIONS...MORE SERIOUS FLOODING
ISSUES MAY PERSIST.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A
BIT IN THE LONG TERM REGARDING SOLUTIONS. THE GFS APPEARS TO
FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD AS A POTENT TROUGH DIVES ACROSS
THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS WOULD EFFECTIVELY END ANY THREAT FOR
RAIN. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE BOUNDARY STALLED
ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE LIFTING IT NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO LEE-
SIDE CYCLOGENESIS WHICH WOULD FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST WILL TREND MORE
TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST.

BAIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    70  66  75  62  74 / 100 100  60  70  60
WACO                70  66  74  67  76 / 100 100  70  70  60
PARIS               72  64  70  64  70 /  80 100  80  70  70
DENTON              69  66  74  61  73 / 100 100  60  60  60
MCKINNEY            70  66  73  64  73 / 100 100  70  70  60
DALLAS              70  67  75  63  74 / 100 100  70  70  60
TERRELL             71  66  73  64  73 / 100 100  80  70  60
CORSICANA           73  68  72  66  73 / 100 100  90  70  70
TEMPLE              73  65  73  66  75 / 100 100  80  70  60
MINERAL WELLS       68  57  73  60  75 / 100 100  50  60  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>094-100>105-
115>121-129>134-141>147-156>162-174-175.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ095-106-107-122-
123-135-148.

&&

58/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
722 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-181145-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
722 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...
PARTICULARLY ALONG AND ROUGHLY 75 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR IN THIS
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...ENHANCING THE RISK OF FLOODED ROADWAYS.
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE CONTINUED FLASH FLOODING
DUE TO RENEWED RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN
EARLY THIS MORNING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE AREA OF GREATEST
CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTH OF A
COMANCHE...HILLSBORO...CENTERVILLE LINE WHERE INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. IN THIS AREA...THERE WILL ALSO BE A SMALL
THREAT OF TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 MONDAY MORNING...PROVIDING AN
ONGOING FLASH FLOOD THREAT. ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH
SATURATED SOILS...ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL FACE A THREAT OF FLOODING.

RAIN AND STORM CHANCES DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

BRADSHAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
941 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0080 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 W PERRIN              33.03N  98.17W
04/17/2016                   JACK               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 4 AT JACK/PALO PINTO CO LINE CLOSED DUE TO
            12-18" OF WATER OVER ROAD SURFACE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
942 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 W PERRIN              33.03N  98.17W
04/17/2016                   JACK               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 4 AT JACK/PALO PINTO CO LINE CLOSED DUE TO
            12-18" OF WATER OVER ROAD SURFACE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
944 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     FLASH FLOOD      VINEYARD                33.17N  97.98W
04/17/2016                   JACK               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER HIGHWAY 380 IN MULTIPLE SPOTS BETWEEN
            JACKSBORO AND RUNAWAY BAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
948 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0947 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CLIFTON                 31.78N  97.58W
04/17/2016                   BOSQUE             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FM 219 AT STATE HIGHWAY 6 CLODED DUE TO FLOODING NEAR
            CLIFTON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
954 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0953 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 W CLIFTON             31.78N  97.68W
04/17/2016                   BOSQUE             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FM 219 CLOSED 6 MILES WEST OF CLIFTON DUE TO FLOODING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1155 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S PANCAKE             31.59N  97.80W
04/17/2016                   CORYELL            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            Farm to market roads 182, 183, AND 217 CLOSED AND NUMEROUS COUNTY ROADS
            CLOSED IN NORTHERN CORYELL COUNTY due to flooding