River Flood Warning 39, NWS Fort Worth, TX

197 
WGUS84 KFWD 171955
FLSFWD
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
255 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following areas in Texas...
 
  Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville Affecting Hunt County 

  South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan Affecting Hunt and Rockwall 
  Counties 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. 
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Stay tuned to NOAA All Hazards Radio for the latest river forecasts. 


&&

TXC231-180755-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0038.160418T0418Z-160420T0545Z/
/GNVT2.2.ER.160418T0418Z.160419T0000Z.160419T1745Z.NO/
255 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville.
* At 0245 PM Sunday the stage was 5.11 feet.
* Flood stage is  14 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by 
  Sunday night and crest near  17 feet by Monday evening. The river 
  should fall below flood stage by Tuesday afternoon.
* At 17 feet, Moderate out of bank flooding will occur. A few rural 
  roads closures will be needed along the river reach. Moderate 
  flooding will occur along the river through Greenville.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3317 9619 3303 9607 3309 9595 3319 9605

$$

TXC231-397-180754-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0039.160418T0458Z-160419T1615Z/
/QLAT2.1.ER.160418T0458Z.160418T1800Z.160419T0415Z.NO/
255 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan.
* At 0245 PM Sunday the stage was 4.86 feet.
* Flood stage is  15 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by 
  Sunday night and crest near  17 feet by Monday afternoon. The river
  should fall below flood stage by Monday night.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3287 9634 3283 9620 3293 9615 3297 9627

$$

768 
WGUS84 KFWD 180110
FLSFWD
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
810 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following areas in Texas...
 
  Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville Affecting Hunt County 

  South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan Affecting Hunt and Rockwall 
  Counties 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. 
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Stay tuned to NOAA All Hazards Radio for the latest river forecasts. 

&&

TXC231-181310-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0038.160418T0411Z-160420T0611Z/
/GNVT2.2.ER.160418T0411Z.160418T1800Z.160419T1811Z.NO/
810 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville.
* At 0745 PM Sunday the stage was 10.00 feet.
* Flood stage is 14 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by 
  Sunday night and crest near 17 feet by Monday evening. The river 
  should fall below flood stage by Tuesday afternoon.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3317 9619 3303 9607 3309 9595 3319 9605

$$

TXC231-397-181309-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0039.160418T0358Z-160419T1638Z/
/QLAT2.1.ER.160418T0358Z.160418T1800Z.160419T0438Z.NO/
810 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan.
* At 0745 PM Sunday the stage was 13.88 feet.
* Flood stage is 15 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by 
  Sunday night and crest near 17 feet by Monday afternoon. The river
  should fall below flood stage by Monday night.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3287 9634 3283 9620 3293 9615 3297 9627

$$

596 
WGUS84 KFWD 180805
FLSFWD
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
305 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following areas in Texas...
 
  Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville Affecting Hunt County 

  South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan Affecting Hunt and Rockwall 
  Counties 

...The Flood Warning continues for the following areas in Texas...
  South Sulphur River Near Cooper Affecting Delta and Hopkins 
  Counties 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. 
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Stay tuned to NOAA All Hazards Radio for the latest river forecasts. 


&&

TXC119-223-182005-
/O.CON.KFWD.FL.W.0043.160418T1800Z-160419T0600Z/
/COPT2.1.ER.160418T1800Z.160418T1800Z.160418T1800Z.NO/
305 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The South Sulphur River Near Cooper.
* At 0215 AM Monday the stage was 12.55 feet.
* Flood stage is  16 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage Monday
  afternoon.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by 
  Monday afternoon and crest near  16 feet by Monday afternoon. The 
  river should fall below flood stage by Monday afternoon.
* At 16 feet, Minor out of bank flooding will occur. A few rural roads
  will begin to flood. Minor flooding will occur to farm and ranch 
  land adjacent to the river.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3329 9557 3330 9548 3341 9549 3341 9556
      3337 9567

$$

TXC231-182004-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-160420T0245Z/
/GNVT2.2.ER.160418T0320Z.160418T1800Z.160419T1445Z.NO/
305 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville.
* At 0245 AM Monday the stage was 16.19 feet.
* Flood stage is  14 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to a crest near  17 feet 
  by Monday afternoon. The river should fall below flood stage 
  Tuesday morning.
* At 17 feet, Moderate out of bank flooding will occur. A few rural 
  roads closures will be needed along the river reach. Moderate 
  flooding will occur along the river through Greenville.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3317 9619 3303 9607 3309 9595 3319 9605

$$

TXC231-397-182004-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-160419T1818Z/
/QLAT2.1.ER.160418T0318Z.160418T1800Z.160419T0618Z.NO/
305 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan.
* At 0245 AM Monday the stage was 15.40 feet.
* Flood stage is  15 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to a crest near  17 feet 
  by Monday afternoon. The river should fall below flood stage 
  Tuesday after midnight.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3287 9634 3283 9620 3293 9615 3297 9627

$$

485 
WGUS84 KFWD 181310
FLSFWD
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
810 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following areas in Texas...
 
  Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville Affecting Hunt County 

  South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan Affecting Hunt and Rockwall 
  Counties 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. 
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Stay tuned to NOAA All Hazards Radio for the latest river forecasts. 


&&

TXC231-190110-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-160420T2338Z/
/GNVT2.1.ER.160418T0320Z.160419T0000Z.160420T1138Z.NO/
810 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville.
* At 0745 AM Monday the stage was 16.46 feet.
* Flood stage is 14 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to a crest near 17 feet 
  by Monday evening. The river should fall below flood stage 
  Wednesday morning.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3317 9619 3303 9607 3309 9595 3319 9605

$$

TXC231-397-190109-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-160420T0000Z/
/QLAT2.2.ER.160418T0318Z.160418T1100Z.160419T1200Z.NO/
810 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan.
* At 0745 AM Monday the stage was 15.79 feet.
* Flood stage is 15 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to a crest near 16 feet 
  by Monday evening. The river should fall below flood stage Tuesday 
  morning.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3287 9634 3283 9620 3293 9615 3297 9627

$$

676 
WGUS84 KFWD 182010
FLSFWD
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
310 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following areas in Texas...
 
  Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville Affecting Hunt County 
  South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan Affecting Hunt and Rockwall 
  Counties 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. 
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Stay tuned to NOAA All Hazards Radio for the latest river forecasts. 


&&

TXC231-190810-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-160421T0708Z/
/GNVT2.1.ER.160418T0320Z.160419T0000Z.160420T1908Z.NO/
310 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville.
* At 0245 PM Monday the stage was 16.63 feet.
* Flood stage is  14 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to a crest near 17 feet 
  by Monday evening. The river should fall below flood stage 
  Wednesday afternoon.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3317 9619 3303 9607 3309 9595 3319 9605

$$

TXC231-397-190809-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-160420T1857Z/
/QLAT2.2.ER.160418T0318Z.160418T1100Z.160420T0657Z.NO/
310 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan.
* At 0245 PM Monday the stage was 16.98 feet.
* Flood stage is  15 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to a crest between 
  17 and 17.5 feet by Monday evening. The river should fall below 
  flood stage Wednesday after midnight.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3287 9634 3283 9620 3293 9615 3297 9627

$$

211 
WGUS84 KFWD 190107
FLSFWD
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
807 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following areas in Texas...
 
  Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville Affecting Hunt County 
  South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan Affecting Hunt and Rockwall 
  Counties 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. 
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Stay tuned to NOAA All Hazards Radio for the latest river forecasts. 


&&

TXC231-191307-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-160421T0800Z/
/GNVT2.1.ER.160418T0320Z.160418T2300Z.160420T2000Z.NO/
807 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville.
* At 0745 PM Monday the stage was 16.74 feet.
* Flood stage is  14 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river has crested and will continue to recede and 
  fall below flood stage by Wednesday afternoon.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3317 9619 3303 9607 3309 9595 3319 9605

$$

TXC231-397-191306-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-160420T2240Z/
/QLAT2.2.ER.160418T0318Z.160418T1100Z.160420T1040Z.NO/
807 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan.
* At 0745 PM Monday the stage was 16.81 feet.
* Flood stage is  15 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river has crested and will continue to recede and 
  fall below flood stage by early Wednesday morning.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3287 9634 3283 9620 3293 9615 3297 9627

$$

980 
WGUS84 KFWD 190654
FLSFWD
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
154 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following areas in Texas...
 
  Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville Affecting Hunt County 

  South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan Affecting Hunt and Rockwall 
  Counties 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. 
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Stay tuned to NOAA All Hazards Radio for the latest river forecasts. 


&&

TXC231-191854-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-160421T1012Z/
/GNVT2.1.ER.160418T0320Z.160419T0100Z.160420T2212Z.NO/
154 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville.
* At 0145 AM Tuesday the stage was 16.24 feet.
* Flood stage is  14 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to a crest near 17 feet 
  early Wednesday morning. The river should fall below flood 
  stage late Wednesday afternoon.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3317 9619 3303 9607 3309 9595 3319 9605

$$

TXC231-397-191853-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-160421T0000Z/
/QLAT2.2.ER.160418T0318Z.160418T1100Z.160420T1200Z.NO/
154 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan.
* At 0145 AM Tuesday the stage was 16.43 feet.
* Flood stage is  15 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to a crest near 17 feet 
  by Tuesday evening. The river should fall below flood stage 
  Wednesday morning.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3287 9634 3283 9620 3293 9615 3297 9627

$$

890 
WGUS84 KFWD 191353
FLSFWD
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
853 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following areas in Texas...
 
  Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville Affecting Hunt County

...The Flood Warning continues for the following areas in Texas...
 
  South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan Affecting Hunt and Rockwall 
  Counties 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. 
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Stay tuned to NOAA All Hazards Radio for the latest river forecasts. 

&&

TXC231-191423-
/O.CAN.KFWD.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-160421T1012Z/
/GNVT2.1.ER.160418T0320Z.160419T0100Z.160419T1257Z.NO/
853 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville.
* At 0845 AM Tuesday the stage was 13.58 feet.
* Flood stage is 14 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at 8 AM Tuesday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to near 6 feet by 
  Wednesday morning.


$$

TXC231-397-200152-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-160420T1330Z/
/QLAT2.2.ER.160418T0318Z.160418T1100Z.160420T0130Z.NO/
853 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan.
* At 0845 AM Tuesday the stage was 15.96 feet.
* Flood stage is 15 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river has crested and will continue to recede and 
  fall below flood stage by Tuesday evening.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3287 9634 3283 9620 3293 9615 3297 9627

$$

715 
WGUS84 KFWD 191953
FLSFWD
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
253 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following areas in Texas...
 
  South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan Affecting Hunt and Rockwall 
  Counties
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. 
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Stay tuned to NOAA All Hazards Radio for the latest river forecasts. 

&&

TXC231-397-192023-
/O.CAN.KFWD.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-160420T1330Z/
/QLAT2.2.ER.160418T0318Z.160418T1100Z.160419T1930Z.NO/
253 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan.
* At 245 PM Tuesday the stage was 14.90 feet.
* Flood stage is 15 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at 2 PM Tuesday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to near 9 feet by 
  Wednesday morning.


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
717 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/ CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH ONGOING CONVECTION NOW IMPACTING
METROPLEX...AND ANOTHER PRIMARY WAVE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY EARLY
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING OF TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
IMPACTS IS NOT GREAT.

THE CURRENT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SHERMAN TO DFW TO
COMANCHE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHILE
MAINTAINING ITS CURRENT GENERAL INTENSITY. ALL METROPLEX TAF SITES
WILL EXPERIENCE TSRA THRU 14Z...ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 15-25KTS. SHOULD SEE THIS LINE DIMINISH FROM W TO E
AFTER 14Z...WITH MOST TAF SITES ENDING THUNDER BY 15Z. THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST...BUT RELATIVELY STABLE BEHIND THIS
LINE...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND CEILING/VIS REDUCTIONS
OCCURRING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHORT-TERM MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT A SECOND LINE OF
CONVECTION SHOULD ORGANIZE WEST OF THE METROPLEX TAFS BY 22Z...AND
SWEEP EASTWARD INTO MOST OF THESE SITES IN THE 22-02Z TIMEFRAME.
UNFORTUNATELY...IT'S NOT CLEARCUT HOW LONG TSRA WILL PERSIST AT
DFW AND ADJACENT LOCATIONS AFTER 02Z. ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR INTERMITTENTLY ALL THE WAY
THROUGH 14Z MON. ELECTED TO CARRY THUNDER THRU AT LEAST 10Z...WITH
THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY POSSIBLY EAST OF DFW/DAL AFTER THAT TIME
WITH RESIDUAL VCTS CONTINUING INTO THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS.

CEILING AT THE METROPLEX TAFS WILL MOSTLY IN THE IFR/LOW MVFR
RANGE WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION...LIFTING INTO MFVR CATEGORIES
BY AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY DIPPING BACK INTO IFR TERRITORY TONIGHT
AS THE SECOND ROUND IMPACTS THE AREA. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN SWING BACK AROUND TO A SELY DIRECTION
IN CONFORMANCE WITH THE LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN.

CONDITIONS AT WACO WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THOSE IN THE DFW
AREA...EXCEPT THE ONSET OF THE TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE DELAYED PAST
15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT INTERMITTENT THUNDER AT WACO THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A LULL...THEN ANOTHER ROUND COMMENCING
AFTER 02Z TONIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SHRA AND TSRA
ACTIVITY.

&&

BRADSHAW

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE
WEATHER. THEREAFTER...EXPECT LINGERING RAIN CHANCES WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES.

...SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE CESSATION OF THE
ONGOING COMPLEX OF STORMS AND SUBSEQUENT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. RADAR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH TOTAL
LIGHTNING DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING OF
CONVECTION CONTINUES. WITH THIS CONVECTION GRADUALLY DRIFTING AWAY FROM
THE BEST FORCING TO THE NORTH AND WEST...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FOR THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND. WHILE THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WANES THIS MORNING...THE SLOW MOTION OF THE
COMPLEX COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WILL FACILITATE AN ONGOING FLASH FLOOD THREAT THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF A GAINESVILLE TO
MINERAL WELLS TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE TWO AREAS THAT WE WILL BE
MONITORING CLOSELY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. THE FIRST
WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE TOWARDS THE
EAST FROM NEAR WICHITA FALLS TO ABILENE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION MAY BE HINDERED A BIT DUE
TO STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE MORNING COMPLEX. HOWEVER...LARGE
SCALE ASCENT COURTESY OF FORCING FROM THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER JET TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA
EXHIBIT A FAIRLY TALL AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SUGGESTING VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE WILL ALSO
FACILITATE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS
THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE I-35
CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS THIS
CONVECTION MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST AT A VERY SLOW PACE...IT WILL
ENCOUNTER AN ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL LIKELY BE CHARACTERIZED BY
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-1.75" RANGE WHICH IS
APPROACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL VALUES. WITH MOST HI-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE PUSHING THIS CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WE FEEL THAT IT IS NECESSARY
TO EXPAND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO THE ENTIRE CWA.

THE OTHER AREA FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MOST COARSE AND HI-
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST MODEST LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS
WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY.
THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE TWO INFLUENCES. THE FIRST IS THAT IT SHOULD
CREATE A WIND PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR THE TRANSPORT OF GOOD LOW
LEVEL THETA-E AIR NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE SECOND IS THAT
IT SHOULD BACK LOW LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN A WIND PROFILE
CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. EXAMINATION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS REVEAL A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ALOFT AND
AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR /ON THE ORDER OF 30-35
KNOTS/ ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STRONG WIND
FIELD AND DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD FACILITATE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND
THUS A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL /ALBEIT
LOW/ WILL EXIST GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY. THE CYCLONIC CURVATURE OF THE HODOGRAPHS /INDICATIVE
OF BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW/ WILL FACILITATE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES.
IN ADDITION...ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY SERVE AS BOTH A FOCUS FOR THE INITIATION OF NEW CONVECTION
AS WELL AS A RICH SOURCE FOR LOW LEVEL SRH. THIS REGION WILL ALSO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS APPROACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND AS A
RESULT...FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

...LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
FOR MONDAY....FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH THROUGH PARTS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN NEAR THIS FEATURE. WITH
CONTINUED STRONG TRANSPORT OF RICH GULF AIR IN CONJUNCTION WITH
SUFFICIENT ASCENT...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
TOWARDS OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THIS POINT IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

FOR TUESDAY...THE OVERALL RAIN THREAT WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES. WITH THE MOIST REGIME...SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES
MAY STILL CONTINUE. IF LIFT NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IS A
BIT STRONGER THAN CURRENT INDICATIONS...MORE SERIOUS FLOODING
ISSUES MAY PERSIST.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A
BIT IN THE LONG TERM REGARDING SOLUTIONS. THE GFS APPEARS TO
FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD AS A POTENT TROUGH DIVES ACROSS
THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS WOULD EFFECTIVELY END ANY THREAT FOR
RAIN. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE BOUNDARY STALLED
ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE LIFTING IT NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO LEE-
SIDE CYCLOGENESIS WHICH WOULD FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST WILL TREND MORE
TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST.

BAIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    72  66  75  62  74 / 100 100  60  70  60
WACO                74  66  74  67  76 / 100 100  70  70  60
PARIS               70  64  70  64  70 /  80 100  80  70  70
DENTON              68  66  74  61  73 / 100 100  60  60  60
MCKINNEY            69  66  73  64  73 / 100 100  70  70  60
DALLAS              72  67  75  63  74 / 100 100  70  70  60
TERRELL             71  66  73  64  73 / 100 100  80  70  60
CORSICANA           73  68  72  66  73 /  90 100  90  70  70
TEMPLE              75  65  73  66  75 / 100 100  80  70  60
MINERAL WELLS       70  57  73  60  75 / 100 100  50  60  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ092>094-102>105-
117>121-131>134-144>147-156>162-174-175.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091-100-101-115-
116-129-130-141>143.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR TXZ095-106-107-122-123-135-148.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
722 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-181145-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
722 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...
PARTICULARLY ALONG AND ROUGHLY 75 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR IN THIS
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...ENHANCING THE RISK OF FLOODED ROADWAYS.
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE CONTINUED FLASH FLOODING
DUE TO RENEWED RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN
EARLY THIS MORNING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE AREA OF GREATEST
CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTH OF A
COMANCHE...HILLSBORO...CENTERVILLE LINE WHERE INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. IN THIS AREA...THERE WILL ALSO BE A SMALL
THREAT OF TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 MONDAY MORNING...PROVIDING AN
ONGOING FLASH FLOOD THREAT. ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH
SATURATED SOILS...ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL FACE A THREAT OF FLOODING.

RAIN AND STORM CHANCES DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

BRADSHAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
551 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

TXZ130-171115-
ERATH TX-
551 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ERATH COUNTY UNTIL 615 AM
CDT...

AT 550 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
DUBLIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STEPHENVILLE AND DUBLIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3241 9824 3224 9795 3223 9794 3200 9804
      3192 9820 3192 9821 3198 9825 3194 9833
      3210 9844
TIME...MOT...LOC 1050Z 205DEG 23KT 3205 9831

STALLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
614 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

TXZ130-171200-
ERATH TX-
614 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ERATH COUNTY UNTIL
700 AM CDT...

AT 613 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
STEPHENVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STEPHENVILLE AND DUBLIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3241 9802 3213 9789 3192 9820 3198 9825
      3194 9833 3207 9841
TIME...MOT...LOC 1113Z 215DEG 18KT 3213 9822

STALLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
625 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

TXZ092-093-171215-
GRAYSON TX-COOKE TX-
625 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN GRAYSON AND EASTERN
COOKE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM CDT...

AT 624 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
CALLISBURG...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF WHITESBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...GAINESVILLE...WHITESBORO...POTTSBORO...COLLINSVILLE...
CALLISBURG...KNOLLWOOD...LAKE KIOWA...EISENHOWER STATE PARK...SOUTHERN
LAKE TEXOMA...SOUTHMAYD AND SADLER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3396 9691 3387 9688 3387 9680 3382 9676
      3384 9669 3392 9667 3390 9659 3384 9662
      3382 9653 3377 9650 3378 9644 3347 9708
      3373 9716 3372 9715 3373 9709 3380 9710
      3382 9705 3385 9709 3385 9701 3395 9699
TIME...MOT...LOC 1124Z 228DEG 21KT 3371 9703

STALLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
637 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

TXZ142-156-171230-
LAMPASAS TX-MILLS TX-
637 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAMPASAS AND MILLS COUNTIES UNTIL
730 AM CDT...

AT 636 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ZEPHYR TO NEAR CHEROKEE.
MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COPPERAS COVE...LAMPASAS...GOLDTHWAITE...KEMPNER...MULLIN...BEND...LOMETA
AND US-190 NEAR THE SAN SABA-LAMPASSES COUNTY LINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3161 9878 3169 9876 3172 9849 3142 9827
      3146 9817 3104 9791 3103 9844 3111 9846
      3109 9853 3117 9851 3127 9863 3132 9859
      3131 9864 3137 9865 3134 9870 3143 9873
      3138 9878 3141 9878 3143 9892 3151 9894
TIME...MOT...LOC 1136Z 238DEG 21KT 3161 9888 3095 9866

STALLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
750 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MINERAL WELLS           32.80N  98.10W
04/17/2016                   PALO PINTO         TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED THAT HIGHWAY 281 NORTH AND NEAR
            MINERAL WELLS EXPERIENCED FLOODING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
815 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 AM     FLASH FLOOD      JACKSBORO               33.22N  98.17W
04/17/2016                   JACK               TX   PUBLIC

            HIGHWAY 199 SOUTH OF JACKSBORO HAS BEEN CLOSED DUE TO
            HIGH WATER.