River Flood Warning 170, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
653 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Cluster of showers and thunderstorms continues to move east this
evening with the main threat shifting east of the major airports
at least for the next several hours. Scattered storms will remain
in the vicinity of Waco for the next hour before moving east as
well.

The main concern through the overnight will be the potential for
additional thunderstorm development on the back side of this
compact vortex moving through North Texas. Very strong low level
warm advection will continue through the late night hours and this
may have the potential to ignite new thunderstorm development
somewhere in the vicinity of the Metroplex southward toward Waco.
We may already be seeing indications of that occurring as the main
cluster of storms appears to be slowing down and there continues
to be new development south of DFW along the I-35 corridor. For
now...will continue to monitor this potential through the evening
with the thinking that most of the activity will stay south of the
Metroplex airports. Otherwise...MVFR cigs will be possible during
the morning hours. There may be some fog potential as well in the
morning especially in areas that received heavy rainfall with
light winds.

Dunn

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016/
A well defined mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) is entering the
western CWA and will move across the region overnight. This
feature was generated by the large convective episode in West
Texas last night and it will be the primary player in the
convective forecast for our area. MCVs occur because of the
latent heat released by convection which generates vorticity. The
mid level core of a MCV is sometimes much warmer than the
surrounding airmass. In this case, the RAP actually shows the
center of this MCV at -4C at 500 mb while 500mb temps over the
remainder of the area are at -7C which shows how strong this MCV
is. MCVs can be simply thought of as a column of warmer air,
which creates a localized bump in the thickness fields and a
depression in the height fields. This tends to promote divergence
aloft above the MCV as the atmosphere tries to spread the air
outward at the top of the thickness bump, which naturally creates
rising air near the center of the MCV but also sinking air or
subsidence outside of the MCV.

Today we've seen the unmistakable signs of subsidence across much
of North Texas ahead of the MCV as the cumulus field has struggled
to develop even after surface temps exceeded the convective
temperature by 5 to 7 degrees. This has built up a lot more
instability in the atmosphere than would have occured otherwise.
This instability is likely to be utilized over the next few hours
as the MCV moves eastward and the subsidence quickly switches to
ascent. We are just now seeing that take place across the western
and northwestern CWA as convection is beginning to blossom near
and immediately ahead of the MCV. The increased instability
combined with sufficient deep layer shear values of 30 knots or
so raises the concern for some severe weather. Multicell
convection or even brief transient HP supercell structures may be
possible. The atmosphere is likely too warm aloft for large hail,
but the damaging wind potential is there with the stronger storms.
In addition to the severe wind threat, we are concerned about the
potential for localized very heavy rainfall that may lead to
flooding. These storms or clusters of storms will tend to be very
slow moving and could dump a lot of rain very quickly. The
localized nature of the very heavy rain precludes issuing a flash
flood watch at this point, but do expect some water issues to
present themselves somewhere before sunrise.

As far as the forecast through this evening, convection should
continue to increase in coverage this afternoon and persist into
the evening hours with a gradual eastward shift. Will have the
highest PoPs along and just west of I-35 through 7 pm, but shift
these highest pops generally along and east of I-35 thereafter.
Storm intensity should trend downward after sunset, but storms may
linger into the late evening hours. In addition, there are several
signals in the model guidance that due to increasing warm
advection on the back side of the MCV, convection could try to
redevelop late tonight and early Monday morning particularly over
the east-central zones near the center of the MCV. Will show
likely pops east of a Paris to Dallas to Lampasas line for
tonight. By Monday morning the MCV will be moving out of the area
and will just keep some low chances Monday afternoon. Sinking and
drier air will be moving in from the west which means much less
diurnal activity is expected Monday afternoon/evening.

An upper level ridge will begin to build into the region Tuesday
and will strengthen by mid to late week before sliding off to the
northwest next weekend. This means dry weather will prevail and
temperatures will gradually warm. Highs will flirt with 100 in
the western zones by Thursday, with mid 90s over the central
zones, and low 90s in the east. Lows will range from the low to
mid 70s across the region. Previous model runs advertised strong
northerly flow aloft over the region by next weekend as the upper
high moved westward, but latest runs are much weaker with that
flow. As a result the weak cold front is in question and therefore
have removed the low chances of rain due to very low confidence.
Otherwise, temps may still cool a couple of degrees as thickness
values decrease with the ridge backing off...but it would still be
hot.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  92  78  94  78 /  40  20  10   5   5
Waco                74  92  76  93  76 /  60  20  10   5   5
Paris               72  86  73  89  75 /  50  40  10  10   5
Denton              73  91  76  93  76 /  30  20  10  10   5
McKinney            72  89  76  92  76 /  50  30  10  10   5
Dallas              75  91  77  94  78 /  50  20  10   5   5
Terrell             74  90  76  92  76 /  60  30  10   5   5
Corsicana           74  89  77  91  77 /  60  30  10   5   5
Temple              74  91  74  93  76 /  50  20  10   5   5
Mineral Wells       72  93  75  95  75 /  20  20  10  10   5

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
324 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-131145-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
324 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILIY AND A
MODEST AMOUNT OF SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE...A FEW OF THESE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE SOME BRIEF YET STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. DUE TO THE
SLOW MOTION OF THE STORMS...A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL ALSO
EXIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND SOME FLOODING OF SMALL
STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP AS WELL.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY IN THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
611 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

TXZ105-121-122345-
HUNT TX-KAUFMAN TX-
611 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HUNT AND NORTHERN KAUFMAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 611 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CELESTE TO NEAR QUINLAN TO FORNEY.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENVILLE...TERRELL...SEAGOVILLE...FORNEY...COMMERCE...KAUFMAN...CRANDALL...
COMBINE...WEST TAWAKONI...TALTY...WOLFE CITY...QUINLAN...CADDO MILLS...
CELESTE...CAMPBELL...HAWK COVE...JOSEPHINE...LONE OAK...POST OAK BEND CITY
AND OAK RIDGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3298 9595 3288 9599 3284 9595 3284 9608
      3260 9608 3260 9652 3281 9652 3282 9630
      3335 9629 3340 9586 3298 9586
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 274DEG 32KT 3331 9622 3291 9618

92

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
646 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW ROYSE CITY         32.97N  96.34W
06/12/2016                   ROCKWALL           TX   PUBLIC

            POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS I-30 AND MM 76.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
725 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

TXZ159-130100-
MCLENNAN TX-
725 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MCLENNAN COUNTY
UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 724 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ROSS...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF LACY-LAKEVIEW...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LACY-LAKEVIEW...WEST...LEROY AND ROSS.

LAT...LON 3180 9717 3186 9704 3169 9692 3164 9711
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 250DEG 11KT 3173 9711

DUNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
733 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 PM     HAIL             GHOLSON                 31.70N  97.22W
06/12/2016  E1.75 INCH       MCLENNAN           TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN GHOLSON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
802 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

TXZ134-146-130130-
NAVARRO TX-ELLIS TX-
802 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN ELLIS AND NORTHWESTERN
NAVARRO COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 800 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR BARDWELL TO BLOOMING GROVE...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CORSICANA...ENNIS...PALMER...ITALY...BLOOMING GROVE...BARDWELL...ALMA...
BARRY...RICE...GARRETT...FROST...EMHOUSE AND MERTENS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 9641 3196 9682 3218 9697 3242 9665
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 267DEG 31KT 3218 9669

DUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
910 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

TXZ144-145-159-130300-
MCLENNAN TX-HILL TX-BOSQUE TX-
910 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BOSQUE...SOUTHERN
HILL AND NORTHERN MCLENNAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 909 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG I-35 FROM HILLSBORO TO WEST...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...NEARLY CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HILLSBORO...LACY-LAKEVIEW...WEST...WHITNEY...HUBBARD...BYNUM...LAKE WHITNEY
STATE PARK...GHOLSON...ABBOTT...LEROY...MOUNT CALM...ROSS...MALONE...
PENELOPE AND AQUILLA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3167 9745 3197 9748 3205 9688 3182 9672
      3176 9682 3163 9713
TIME...MOT...LOC 0209Z 325DEG 14KT 3186 9713

DUNN