Flash Flood Warning 76, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
417 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Just when it seems our enduring MCS has run its course, a new
favored area ignites. Fed by a 30-knot low-level jet of rich Gulf
moisture, the ongoing activity in our southeastern zones will
likely continue into the morning commute. With considerable
precipitation efficiency and little movement, flooding will remain
a concern. Even where the rain has come to an end, runoff will
continue, and high water may linger this morning. Despite an
apparent back edge to the slowly advecting complex, there is
clearly still some vorticity upstream that has yet to be smoothed
out. This backbuilding will also enhance the flood threat along
the I-45 corridor this morning.

In the upper reaches of the troposphere, cyclonic flow will become
anticyclonic today. But in the mid-levels, the eastward
translation of the ridge axis will be a bit slower. Subsidence
should limit the extent of redevelopment in areas west of the I-35
corridor today, but remaining lift in East Texas may result in
one final day of scattered showers and storms. High temperatures
today will reflect this, ranging from the mid 90s in western zones
to the upper 80s in cloudier/outflowier eastern zones.

Ridging will dominate the remainder of the workweek, and abundant
sunshine will push afternoon temperatures above normal. The
oppressive humidity will make it feel even hotter, and low
temperatures will also rise to summery levels. Afternoon heat
index values may top 105 in some areas Tuesday through Friday.

Extended guidance continues to favor a retrograding of the ridge
late in the week, but operational solutions are trending away from
a backdoor frontal passage, keeping the northerly land breeze
confined to East Texas and Louisiana. The consensus for the
forthcoming weekend and into next week is for easterly flow aloft.
However, the tropical easterlies and their unsettled weather would
be confined to South Texas, with the southern periphery of the
ridge dominating North Texas weather. As a result, the outlook
for the remainder of the month favors above normal temperature and
below normal precipitation.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1204 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016/
/6Z TAFS/

Most of the showers and thunderstorms have now pushed south and
east of the major airports in North Texas...although they are
still in the vicinity of Waco. Main concern over the next several
hours will continue to be the potential for some redevelopment of
showers and thunderstorms. This is most likely to occur somewhere
between the Metroplex and the Waco/Temple/Killeen areas. For
now...will leave the TAFs precip free through the remainder of the
night...although will have to monitor closely for additional
storms. Otherwise...VFR conditions prevail outside of
precipitation areas for now. With all of the rainfall...and
extensive low level moisture...think we will see some MVFR cigs
toward morning so have included that. There is some uncertainty
with respect to convection during the day tomorrow but will
include a VCSH through midday.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    91  76  94  77  95 /  40  10  10   5   5
Waco                92  77  93  77  95 /  30   5  10   5   5
Paris               86  73  90  74  92 /  60  10  10  10  10
Denton              90  76  93  76  94 /  40  10  10   5   5
McKinney            89  75  92  76  93 /  50  10  10   5   5
Dallas              91  77  93  78  95 /  40  10  10   5   5
Terrell             90  75  92  76  94 /  50  10  10   5  10
Corsicana           90  75  92  75  93 /  50  10  10   5   5
Temple              91  75  93  76  93 /  30   5  10   5   5
Mineral Wells       93  74  96  74  96 /  30  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

30/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
416 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-140930-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
416 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1118 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WACO                    31.55N  97.15W
06/12/2016                   MCLENNAN           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGH WATER RESCUE AT 3801 SANGER IN THE CITY OF WACO.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1134 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1119 PM     HAIL             ROBINSON                31.47N  97.12W
06/12/2016  E1.00 INCH       MCLENNAN           TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            DELAYED REPORT OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN ROBINSON AROUND
            11:19 PM. RELAYED VIA KXXV METEOROLOGIST.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1137 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1132 PM     HAIL             WACO                    31.55N  97.15W
06/12/2016  E1.00 INCH       MCLENNAN           TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            DELAYED REPORT OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR MCLENNAN COUNTY
            FAIRGROUNDS. REPORT RELAYED VIA KXXV METEOROLOGIST.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1206 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1139 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WACO                    31.55N  97.15W
06/12/2016                   MCLENNAN           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER THE ROAD AT FRANKLIN AND NEW ROAD IN WACO.
            ONE CAR STUCK DUE TO FLOOD WATERS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1228 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

TXZ158>160-130600-
MCLENNAN TX-BELL TX-FALLS TX-
1228 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BELL...WEST CENTRAL
FALLS AND SOUTHWESTERN MCLENNAN COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

AT 1227 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
MOODY...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF TEMPLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TEMPLE...MORGAN'S POINT RESORT...TROY...BRUCEVILLE-EDDY AND MOODY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. SEEK
A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO CLOSELY MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
FORT WORTH.

&&

LAT...LON 3121 9759 3123 9760 3132 9742 3136 9745
      3138 9744 3140 9735 3130 9724 3128 9721
      3117 9708 3111 9735
TIME...MOT...LOC 0527Z 324DEG 13KT 3127 9736

BAIN