Flash Flood Warning 77, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
637 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

.AVIATION...
A slow-moving disturbance continues to generate convection across
the region early this morning. The quasi-stationary MCS which was
present between DFW and Waco has recently split into multi-cell
clusters. One of these cells is moving south around 10 KT and
should affect the Waco area around 14-15Z if it holds together.

Meanwhile, showers have developed in the Dallas area and will
affect KDAL and possible KDFW for a few hours before moving east
of the terminal areas. KDAL had experienced IFR ceilings
overnight but it appears they are lifting a little as we move
through daybreak. If this trend continues we will amend to improve
conditions at KDAL a little sooner than currently forecast.

For the afternoon, the best chances for convection will be east of
the TAF sites as the shortwave shifts ever so slowly eastward with
time. However, there is still enough moisture for scattered
showers to affect the terminal areas for a few hours.
Otherwise, a return of MVFR CIGS is expected again overnight.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016/
Just when it seems our enduring MCS has run its course, a new
favored area ignites. Fed by a 30-knot low-level jet of rich Gulf
moisture, the ongoing activity in our southeastern zones will
likely continue into the morning commute. With considerable
precipitation efficiency and little movement, flooding will remain
a concern. Even where the rain has come to an end, runoff will
continue, and high water may linger this morning. Despite an
apparent back edge to the slowly advecting complex, there is
clearly still some vorticity upstream that has yet to be smoothed
out. This back-building will also enhance the flood threat along
the I-45 corridor this morning.

In the upper reaches of the troposphere, cyclonic flow will become
anticyclonic today. But in the mid-levels, the eastward
translation of the ridge axis will be a bit slower. Subsidence
should limit the extent of redevelopment in areas west of the I-35
corridor today, but remaining lift in East Texas may result in
one final day of scattered showers and storms. High temperatures
today will reflect this, ranging from the mid 90s in western zones
to the upper 80s in cloudier/outflowier eastern zones.

Ridging will dominate the remainder of the workweek, and abundant
sunshine will push afternoon temperatures above normal. The
oppressive humidity will make it feel even hotter, and low
temperatures will also rise to summery levels. Afternoon heat
index values may top 105 in some areas Tuesday through Friday.

Extended guidance continues to favor a retrograding of the ridge
late in the week, but operational solutions are trending away from
a backdoor frontal passage, keeping the northerly land breeze
confined to East Texas and Louisiana. The consensus for the
forthcoming weekend and into next week is for easterly flow aloft.
However, the tropical easterlies and their unsettled weather would
be confined to South Texas, with the southern periphery of the
ridge dominating North Texas weather. As a result, the outlook
for the remainder of the month favors above normal temperature and
below normal precipitation.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    91  76  94  77  95 /  40  10  10   5   5
Waco                92  77  93  77  95 /  30   5  10   5   5
Paris               86  73  90  74  92 /  60  10  10  10  10
Denton              90  76  93  76  94 /  40  10  10   5   5
McKinney            89  75  92  76  93 /  50  10  10   5   5
Dallas              91  77  93  78  95 /  40  10  10   5   5
Terrell             90  75  92  76  94 /  50  10  10   5  10
Corsicana           90  75  92  75  93 /  50  10  10   5   5
Temple              91  75  93  76  93 /  30   5  10   5   5
Mineral Wells       93  74  96  74  96 /  30  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

30/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
416 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-140930-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
416 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
532 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 AM     FLASH FLOOD      RICHLAND                31.92N  96.43W
06/13/2016                   NAVARRO            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            I-45 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING BETWEEN MM 210 & 218

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
542 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

TXZ145-131130-
HILL TX-
542 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HILL COUNTY UNTIL 630 AM CDT...

AT 542 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CARL'S CORNER...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF HILLSBORO...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HILLSBORO...WHITNEY...ITASCA...HUBBARD...BLUM...COVINGTON...BYNUM...CARL'S
CORNER...LAKE WHITNEY STATE PARK...ABBOTT...MOUNT CALM...MALONE...
PENELOPE...MERTENS AND AQUILLA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. SEEK
A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3171 9693 3186 9704 3175 9729 3179 9733
      3184 9728 3187 9738 3188 9739 3189 9736
      3193 9744 3198 9738 3203 9743 3202 9749
      3210 9747 3213 9750 3216 9746 3218 9747
      3226 9709 3206 9694 3207 9689 3182 9672
TIME...MOT...LOC 1042Z 002DEG 9KT 3213 9706

30

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
553 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MEXIA                   31.68N  96.50W
06/13/2016                   LIMESTONE          TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STRANDED MOTORIST REPORTED NEAR HOPKINS & BONHAM; WATER
            REPORTED OVER THE HOOD